MacRumors

68% of Americans are expected to own an iPhone when the smartphone market reaches its saturation point in 2017, according to new research done by Asymco analyst Horace Dediu. Citing a parallel between the growth of the smartphone market and the growth of the iPhone over the years, Dediu predicts that both will continue to grow alongside each other as the smartphone market hits a saturation point at 90% in February 2017 with a predicted 180 million U.S. iPhone owners by that time, giving Apple a 68% market share.

If we believe that the iPhone can be modeled behaviorally then it may be possible to forecast its growth. One can simply draw a line extending the existing red segment above and read the F/(1-F) figure at any point in time. Solving for F results in a measure of penetration and hence number of users (if population is known.)

An alternative is to use the following formula derived from the linear interpolation of the two measured market shares. iPhone market share is y/(1+y) where y=0.21x and x = F/(1-F) and F is the expected market penetration of smartphones.

So if F = 91%, x = 10, y = 2.11 and therefore the iPhone market share = 68%.

We also know from the plot of the market that F = .91 is reached around February 2017. So we can suggest that at 90% penetration (approximately saturation) the iPhone will have 68% market share of users in the US. Forecasting the addressable market (US population aged older than 13) at about 266 million that implies 180 million US users of the iPhone by early 2017.

As Forbes points out, the idea of smartphones being used by 90% of the population by Dediu's projected date would mean that the market would hit full saturation less than 10 years since the introduction of the original iPhone, making smartphones the fastest adopted technology in history:

And the remarkable thing about this is that the smartphone won’t even be ten years old by that point. Yes, the first real smartphone (there were attempts before this but nothing that really grasped peoples’ attention) was indeed the iPhone and it was released in 2007. But not until June: so if market saturation comes in Feb 2017 then market saturation will come in just under a decade.

And that is just amazing, stupendous in fact. It makes the smartphone by far the fastest adopted technology ever.

According to data from research firm Kantar Worldpanel posted earlier this month, the iPhone's market share in the U.S. hit 52.8% in October following the launch of the iPhone 5s and the iPhone 5c. In the previous year, Apple's market share was at 53.3% following the launch of the iPhone 5, and was at 36% and 25% in the two years prior with the launch of the iPhone 4S and iPhone 4, respectively.

Apple CEO Tim Cook received a lifetime achievement award from his alma mater Auburn University at a New York event on Tuesday, with a video of the speech surfacing on the college's YouTube channel today (via AllThingsD).

Throughout his remarks, Cook highlighted his overall support for the progression of human equality in the United States and throughout the world. The CEO cited a section from the United Nations preamble emphasizing equality, and talked about finding a company in Apple that “deeply believed in advancing humanity through its products and through the equality of all of its employees.“

Now, much has changed since my early days at Apple, but these values, which are the very heart of our company, remain the same. These values guide us to make our products accessible for everyone...people with disabilities often find themselves in a struggle to have their human dignity acknowledged; they're frequently left in the shadows of technological advancements that are a source of empowerment and attainment for others. But Apple's engineers pushed back against this unacceptable reality; they go to extraordinary lengths to make our products accessible to people with various disabilities from blindness and deafness, to various muscular disorders.

Cook also discussed his and Apple's support for the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA), which the CEO also championed in an op-ed written for The Wall Street Journal last month:

These values have also recently guided us to support legislation that demands equality and non-discrimination for all employees, regardless of how they love. This legislation, known as the Employment Non-Discrimination Act, prohibits discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity. I have long believed in this, and Apple has implemented protections for employees, even when the laws did not. Now is the time to write these principles of basic human dignity into the book of law.

Cook originally graduated from Auburn University in 1982 with a Bachelor of Science degree in Industrial Engineering. He then joined Apple in 1998, and was named CEO of the company on August 24, 2011 after late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs resigned from the position.

Note: Due to the potentially controversial nature of the discussion regarding this topic, the discussion thread is located in our Politics, Religion, Social Issues forum. All forum members and site visitors are welcome to read and follow the thread, but posting is limited to forum members with at least 100 posts.

Back in June, just days after Apple teased the new Mac Pro at its Worldwide Developers Conference, a Geekbench result appeared for a version of the machine using Intel's 12-core Xeon E5-2697 v2 Ivy Bridge-E processor running at 2.7 GHz. Entries for 8-core and 6-core models followed in September and November respectively, but with those benchmarks coming under Geekbench 3 and the original 12-core model having been tested under Geekbench 2, the results were not directly comparable.

Still, John Poole of Primate Labs, the company behind Geekbench, outlined the likely processor performance options under Geekbench 3 for the new Mac Pro based on the tested Mac Pro machines where available and filling in the gaps with data from Windows machines running the same processors destined for the Mac Pro.

Now, with the Mac Pro launch likely very near, new sets of benchmarks from the 12-core Mac Pro running Geekbench 3 have surfaced, offering a better look at the performance of the high-end custom configuration. MacRumors and Poole both believe the results to be legitimate.

Three sets of Geekbench results have been posted, two run in 32-bit mode and a third in 64-bit mode. Averages for the two 32-bit runs (1, 2) yield scores of 2909 for single-core testing and 29721 for multi-core testing, fairly close to Poole's predictions based on results from Windows machines running the same chip.

As predicted, the single-core score for the high-end Mac Pro is actually lower than seen with the other new Mac Pro models due to the lower maximum clock speed of the 12-core chip, but multi-core testing obviously shows a significant boost in performance compared to the Mac Pro model carrying the 8-core processor. The new 12-core Mac Pro unsurprisingly also compares favorably to the 12-core Mid 2012 Mac Pro and high-end models of the current iMac and Retina MacBook Pro.

The third Geekbench result for this machine uses the 64-bit version of the testing suite, which yields scores roughly 10-11% higher than their 32-bit counterparts for both single-core and multi-core testing.

As with previous Mac Pro benchmarks believed to be legitimate, this latest 12-core Mac Pro is running a custom build of OS X Mavericks, the same 13A4023 build seen on the 6-core model last month.

Apple has announced that it will be launching the new Mac Pro sometime this month, but has yet to offer a more specific launch date or publicly outline full pricing details beyond the $2999/$3999 stock configurations. According to a price quote provided to one business customer, maxing out the new Mac Pro with the 12-core CPU, 64 GB of RAM, 1 TB of internal flash storage, and high-end dual AMD FirePro D700 graphics chips could bring pricing to roughly $10,000.

With potential customers of the new Mac Pro eagerly awaiting any sign of a more concrete launch date than the "December" timeframe announced by Apple at its October media event, increased activity from Apple's business team members suggests that a launch may indeed be very near.

While Apple has publicly remained silent on pricing for various Mac Pro configurations beyond the $2999/$3999 stock models in shown in its U.S. online store, members of the company's business sales team have on occasion been offering pricing quotes on build-to-order configurations upon request.

One Canadian forum member at FCP.co posted late last month that he had been quoted $9700 for a maxed-out Mac Pro with 1 TB flash storage, 64 GB of RAM, dual AMD FirePro D700 graphics, and a 12-core processor. Given Apple's current currency conversions, U.S. pricing should fall in the range of $9400-$9500, although that quote almost certainly incorporates a small discount made available to certain business customers. A somewhat lower-specced model with 512 GB of flash storage and an 8-core processor was quoted at $7700 Canadian.

But while Apple business team members have had some access to the full price list for the new Mac Pro for at least several weeks, team members appear to have become more proactive over the past several days, contacting business customers who had previously expressed interest in the new Mac Pro to offer them price quotes ahead of the official launch.

One MacRumors forum member yesterday posted a price quote he received from an Apple business sales representative for a build-to-order Mac Pro configuration, a higher-end stock model upgraded with additional RAM and flash storage. Pricing for that configuration came to $4464 in the quote, but retail pricing would be slightly higher.

A second MacRumors reader reported today that he was contacted by a member of Apple's business sales team requesting desired configuration options for the purposes of generating a price quote. The Apple representative indicated that a price quote could be available by Monday, December 16, but it is unknown if that corresponds to any public release of additional information for that date.

Aside from the recent activity from Apple's business sales team regarding the new Mac Pro, the rapidly approaching holidays also led to speculation that a Mac Pro launch could come sooner rather than later. Next week is the last full week before Christmas, and with many Apple employees having time off around the holidays, the company would likely prefer to avoid conflicts with the holidays as much as possible.

An alternative theory suggests, however, that Apple may still be working to secure the component volumes it needs to produce a launch batch of the machines. As a result, the company could have little alternative but to launch the new Mac Pro in small volumes at the very end of the month in order to technically meet its stated launch timeframe while being able to push the bulk of its initial deliveries into early 2014.

As the holidays approach, Apple's Retina iPad mini supplies have begun to improve, alleviating the supply constraints the product has faced since its quiet November 12 launch.

In the Online Apple Store, Retina iPad mini shipping estimates for all models and capacities, including cellular models, have decreased to 1 to 3 days in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Asia Pacific. The Retina iPad mini continues to ship within 3 to 5 days in European countries.

The new shipping estimates are a significant improvement from shipping estimates in late November, which slipped to 5 to 10 days for multiple weeks before improving to 3 to 5 days earlier this week.

Issues with display yields were reportedly behind Apple's supply shortages, and as a result of the constrained supplies, Apple launched the Retina iPad mini in the middle of the night, offering the tablet solely via its online store and through Personal Pickup. It wasn't until 10 days after launch that Apple began allowing walk-in sales of the Retina mini. Cellular models have been the most constrained, with multiple carriers experiencing back orders on cellular Retina iPad minis in November.

Just a few weeks ago, a report suggested Apple had solved its production problems, allowing it to build up some supplies for the holiday shopping season. Along with shorter shipping estimates, in-store supplies of the Retina iPad mini appear to have improved slightly as well, with several colors and capacities available for immediate pickup in quite a few Apple Stores around the country.

According to an unofficial web tracker, supplies of the 16 and 32 GB Wi-Fi models are widely available, while the larger 64 and 128 GB Retina iPad minis and all cellular minis remain in shorter supply.

Apple’s holiday shipping guidelines now suggest that U.S. customers order the non-engraved Retina iPad mini by December 16 for a December 24 delivery with standard shipping.

(Thanks, Leonard!)

Sprint is preparing a possible bid for T-Mobile US, reports The Wall Street Journal. If permitted by antitrust regulators, a potential merger between the two companies would result in just three major carriers in the United States.

Depending on the stake that Sprint attempts to buy, the deal could be worth more than $20 billion. While Sprint is still looking into regulatory concerns, a bid could potentially come as early as the first half of 2014.

Sprint hasn't yet decided whether to move ahead with a bid. Going forward despite regulators' concerns would be highly risky. Any pursuit of a bid by Sprint could be aimed at testing antitrust officials' reaction to a deal, and a bad reaction could put an end to the effort.

Currently, T-Mobile US, which operates under the T-Mobile, MetroPCS and GoSmart brands, is the fourth largest carrier in the United States with 45 million customers, while Sprint is the third largest carrier with 54 million customers. Combined, the two companies would be come close to reaching the subscriber numbers of the larger carriers in the U.S., Verizon and AT&T, at 119 million and 108 million customers each, respectively.

Sprint and T-Mobile have each struggled to keep up with competitors like Verizon and AT&T, which have been able to implement much larger LTE networks. A merger between the two companies would likely see significant service improvements for customers, due to a larger network infrastructure and the means to make additional spectrum purchases.

Both Sprint and T-Mobile offer perks unavailable on other networks, such as T-Mobile's "UnCarrier" plans that divorce device costs from plan costs and Sprint's unlimited data plans. Sprint and T-Mobile currently operate using different technologies, as Sprint is a CDMA network while T-Mobile is GSM.

It is unclear whether a merger between Sprint and T-Mobile will be permitted, as AT&T previously tried to purchase T-Mobile US in 2011. The Federal Communications Commission and the Department of Justice both made moves to block the transaction, putting an end to the acquisition. AT&T had planned to pay $39 billion in cash and stock for the company.

According to the report, Deutsche Telekom AG, which owns approximately 67 percent of T-Mobile US, is looking to exit the U.S. market.

Apple today released the second beta of iOS 7.1 to registered developers for testing purposes, following the release of the first iOS 7.1 beta back in mid-November. The update has a build number of 11D5115d and is available via an over-the-air update or through Apple's developer center website.

Release notes from the first iOS 7.1 beta indicated that the update fixes network connection issues in addition to other bugs. The beta also included a new Yahoo logo, extra burst mode uploading options for the camera, and an option for a "dark keyboard" in the Accessibility section.

According to the iOS 7.1 beta 2 release notes, this update fixes several bugs, including one that caused all tones to sound like the default. The settings for Touch ID and Passcodes have also been moved from General settings to the main settings menu and Calendar has a new list view toggle.

While the "dark keyboard" option appears to have been removed from accessibility options, there's a new "Button Shapes" option that can be turned on to indicate where tappable areas are located. Animations appear to be faster in iOS 7.1 beta 2 and Control Center has gained a new bounce animation and music labels that show the audio source.

Apple has also seeded a new version of the Apple TV beta software, along with Xcode 5.1 Developer Preview 2.

Update: As noted by 9to5Mac, iOS 7.1 may add support for iOS in the Car, which is designed to provide enhanced iOS integration in compatible automobiles. In the second beta, iOS 7.1 includes a "Car Display" toggle in the Restrictions Settings panel, along with additional iOS in the Car references, suggesting that iOS in the Car could come in early 2014.

With iOS in the Car, iPhone owners will be able to connect their iOS devices to a compatible car to access maps, get directions, check messages, and more by displaying iOS content on the car's navigational screen.

Following the start of pre-orders for the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c on China Mobile earlier this week, new photos from PRC and ME show just how much the world's largest carrier is emphasizing its launch of Apple's products.

The carrier's relatively small store at the Link City shopping mall in Shenzhen is covered in Apple promotional signage, including wall-mounted banners and a large scrolling digital ribbon sign advertising discounted pricing on the new iPhones, extra free-standing signage, and even a flatscreen television replaying video of Apple's iPhone 5s/5c introduction from September.

Not only were there Apple advertisements all over the place, but even Phil Schiller was present, his A7 chip announcement playing on a flatscreen TV. A majority of the ad and display space in the store had been dedicated to Apple. If this is any indication, China Mobile is planning to aggressively promote their new Apple partnership in the hopes of blunting any advances from China Unicom and Telecom.

One of the store's two display tables is entirely devoted to Apple products, with iPhone 5s, iPhone 5c, iPad, and iPad mini units on display for customers to try out, extra iPhone 5c samples showing the various color options, and a China Mobile salesperson staffing the table at a large iMac.

The China Mobile iPhone launch comes just as market research firm Counterpoint Research revealed a significant jump in Apple's smartphone market share in China in October, with Apple leaping from sixth place to third with over 10% of the market on the strength of the iPhone 5s and 5c launches. With China Mobile opening iPhone availability up to millions of potential new customers beyond launch partners China Unicom and China Telecom, Apple is clearly looking to make a significant move in the world's largest market.

According to Chinese site C Technology [Google Translate, via GForGames], Apple is planning to release its long-rumored iWatch alongside the next iPhone in October 2014, with the company having tested two iWatch prototypes. However, the report also states that Apple has not decided on the final screen size of the device, with the prototype units being powered by a 100 mAh battery. The iWatch is also said to include wireless charging capabilities which will allow the device to charge from up to a meter away.

The report questions the reported inclusion of a 100 mAh battery, noting that it seems far too small to allow for significant battery life. Samsung's Galaxy Gear watch contains a 315 mAh battery and has received criticism over poor battery life.

Battery life has previously been reported as being an issue for Apple, with iWatch prototypes lasting only 1-2 days on a charge and the company hoping to find ways to extend that to 4-5 days. C Technology notes that wireless charging would be one way to reduce the burden of frequent charges, but it is unclear exactly how it would be implemented by Apple. A 100 mAh battery in the iWatch would roughly match the 105 mAh battery seen in the sixth-generation iPod nano that was designed in part to be able to be used as a watch.

In contrast, a report last month from Digitimes stated that the iWatch would be released in Q2 2014, with component makers having started pilot production for the device. The report also stated that low part yields have pushed back mass production of the device from an internal target date of Q1 2014 to Q2 2014, with Apple suppliers Quanta, Inventec, and Foxconn said to be competing for iWatch production orders.

iWatch reports have surfaced throughout the past few months, with Apple rumored to be releasing both 1.7 and 1.3-inch display sizes of the watch for men and women. NPD DisplaySearch analyst Paul Gagnon also noted that Apple appears to have put its major television product plans on hold for the time being in order to focus on wearables such as the iWatch.

C Technology's rumor track record is mixed, with the site being a frequent source of accurate iPhone 5s and 5c photo leaks leading up to the launch of those devices but also sharing several inaccurate pictures claimed to be of iPads in gold and/or with Touch ID prior to the introduction of the new tablets.