Apple Earnings Preview: All Eyes on Next Quarter's Guidance Ahead of New iPhones, Apple Card, and Apple TV+

Apple is set to report its earnings results for the third quarter of its 2019 fiscal year at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time today.

aapl logo
The quarter began March 31, 2019 and ran through June 29, 2019, according to Apple's fiscal year accounting calendar.

Apple's guidance for the quarter from April 30:

  • revenue: $52.5 billion-$54.5 billion

  • gross margin: 37-38 percent

  • op. ex.: $8.7 billion-$8.8 billion

  • other income/expense: $250 million

  • tax rate: approximately 16.5 percent

Apple's guidance suggests it will report its second-best third quarter ever by revenue:

  • 2014: $37.4 billion

  • 2015: $49.6 billion

  • 2016: $42.4 billion

  • 2017: $45.4 billion

  • 2018: $53.3 billion

  • 2019: $52.5+ billion

Wall Street's revenue estimates average out to $53.39 billion, slightly below the midpoint of Apple's guidance, based on 33 analysts tracked by Yahoo Finance. Earnings per share is estimated to be $2.10.

Key Facts and What to Look For

  • iPhone revenue of $26.5 billion, according to a Bloomberg average.

  • Product launches in the third quarter: 13-inch and 15-inch MacBook Pro refresh on May 21 (excluding entry-level 13-inch model, which was updated in July) and seventh-generation iPod touch on May 28.

  • Apple's guidance for its fourth fiscal quarter, which typically encompasses the launch of at least some new ‌iPhone‌ models in mid-to-late September. Wall Street expects fourth quarter revenue to be $61 billion, down around three percent year-over-year, according to Bloomberg.

  • Apple's revenue in Greater China and any potential commentary regarding the U.S.-China trade war. Apple reported revenue of $9.5 billion in Greater China in the year-ago quarter, which was 19 percent growth.

  • Apple's services revenue reached an all-time high of $11.45 billion in the second quarter, and investors will be looking for continued growth from the launch of Apple News+ six days before the third quarter began. The upcoming launches of the Apple Card later this summer and Apple Arcade and Apple TV+ in the fall could also be at least partially baked into Apple's fourth quarter guidance depending on exact launch dates.

  • Apple's "Wearables, Home, and Accessories" category also remains key. Last quarter, Apple said the category was the size of a Fortune 200 company, buoyed by the success of the Apple Watch and AirPods.

Apple's CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri will discuss the company's earnings results on a conference call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time today. MacRumors will highlight key points from the one-hour call as it occurs live.

Tag: AAPL

Top Rated Comments

realtuner Avatar
22 months ago
Still hoping that consumers will have started voting with their wallets. Finally.
They have. Best June quarter in company history.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
citysnaps Avatar
22 months ago
I expect them to miss most metrics, possibly each one. Apple is in an innovation downspiral, eventually it will start being reflected in the earnings. Maybe not yet - probably, but maybe not - but definitely eventually.
Definitely, eventually, we're all going to die.
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
rosegoldoli Avatar
22 months ago
Now imagine if they listened to MacRumors members :p
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Baymowe335 Avatar
22 months ago
I expect them to miss most metrics, possibly each one. Apple is in an innovation downspiral, eventually it will start being reflected in the earnings. Maybe not yet - probably, but maybe not - but definitely eventually.
Be specific.

You think they will earn under $52.5B in sales and less than $2.10/share?

I expect record services revenue, solid top line revenue within their guidance, and more than $2.10/share.
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)
realtuner Avatar
22 months ago
Funny and accurate. All I meant was that the initial snowballing effect of hemorrhaging users and brand loyalty takes several update cycles before it begins hitting the bottom line and showing up in revenue. Especially with Tim Cook’s tactics of raising price and forcing upgrades, methods he uses to slow the awareness of the issue.

Not sure if it will be this year or next, but the problems Apple is facing are very real and urgent, so expect to see them shortly. It will start with missing Wall Street estimates, then slowly but surely the sales will begin dropping off on a chart graph like never before seen. It will be interesting to see if we are still at the “early trickle” stages or the full-on freefall stages. But I do strongly believe Apple is in for a world of hurt, and sooner rather than later. Just one of those “can’t prove it but it’s true” things. Or CPIBIT as I like to call it.
If I had a dollar for every time I heard that....
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Carnegie Avatar
22 months ago
This quarter underlines that: despite iPhone sales continuing to shrink, the firm's revenues are up, thanks to booming success with its Wearables, Home and Accessories category (so: Apple Watch, mostly, and AirPods) and continued growth of it Services (App Store, Apple Pay, Apple TV, Apple Music etc).

How do people not understand that all of the bolder, RELY ON IPHONE?

Third straight quarter of declining iPhone sales. 12% year over year decline. Revenue is up, while *PROFITS* fell 13%, because of iPhone. Almost all of their Services revenue also depends on iPhone.

This is not good news. One really has to wonder just what the shareholders on Wall Street are thinking.
Those things depend, to a great degree, on iPhones, yes.

But they don't depend on new (and increasing) iPhone sales. They depend on iPhone ownership and use. iPhone install base continues to grow, and that's what matters more when it comes to those products and services. (Though they could grow for quite a while even if iPhone install base stopped growing.)

Apple doesn't have a problem with losing iPhone customers or users. The issue is elongating purchase cycles. That issue has been anticipated - even in effect - for quite some time. And Apple has been taking steps - fairly effective ones - to deal with that anticipated reality. The reality is that iPhones remain effective for most people's use needs for a long time. There's less need to upgrade. And Apple has embraced that reality. It, e.g., offers updates for iPhones which are many years old. Rather than that reality being a negative, it's a positive - and Apple has worked on turning it into a positive. iPhones represent even better values because, more often, newly purchased iPhones are going to be used for 3 or 4 or 5 years.

iPhone unit sales peaked in CY 2015 and they've dropped every year since then. That isn't something new and it isn't, for the most part, because of things which Apple has done wrong. It's the reality of a product market that is maturing (or has matured) in many important geographic markets. And it's because iPhones have gotten better and remain useful (relative to what's new) longer.

As for why net income fell: Gross margin was nearly flat - $20.2 billion as compared to $20.4 billion in the year-ago quarter. It may even have been up if we back out the one-time item (from the year-ago quarter) relating to the resolution of lawsuits. So profit didn't fall because Apple made less money selling products and services. It fell mostly for other reasons. For instance, R&D spending increased by 15%, non-operating income fell by 45%, and Apple's effective income tax rate increased from 13.3% to 15.7%.
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Top Stories

apple event spring loaded

Apple's 'Spring Loaded' Event Officially Announced for Tuesday, April 20

Tuesday April 13, 2021 9:04 am PDT by
Following an overnight leak by Siri, Apple today officially announced that it will be holding a special "Spring Loaded" event on Tuesday, April 20 at 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time at the Steve Jobs Theater on the Apple Park campus in Cupertino, California. As with all of Apple's 2020 events, the April 2021 event will be a digital-only gathering with no members of the media invited to attend in...
iphone12cameras

Kuo: 2022 iPhones to Feature 48-Megapixel Camera, 8K Video, and 6.1 and 6.7" Sizes With No 5.4" Mini Option

Tuesday April 13, 2021 10:45 pm PDT by
The upcoming 2022 iPhone lineup will feature two 6.1-inch devices and two 6.7-inch devices, with no mini-sized 5.4-inch iPhone, well-respected Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said in a note to investors that was seen by MacRumors. Two of the iPhones will be high-end models and two of the iPhones will be lower-end models, similar to the current iPhone 12 lineup. Apple introduced the 5.4-inch...
macos catalina serial number

Apple Preparing Rollout of New Randomized Product Serial Numbers Ahead of 'Spring Loaded' Event

Wednesday April 14, 2021 2:08 am PDT by
Apple is advising its authorized premium resellers and dealers to prepare for new products with 10 and 12 digital serial numbers, days ahead of when it's expected to reveal a slew of new products. MacRumors previously reported that Apple plans to switch to randomized serial numbers for future products starting in early 2021. The company now seems to be preparing for that roll-out, telling...
apple event particularly innovative article

Gurman: Apple's 'Spring Loaded' Event Won't Feature Anything 'Particularly Innovative'

Thursday April 15, 2021 1:30 am PDT by
Bloomberg's highly-respected Mark Gurman says that he expects nothing "particularly innovative" or "extraordinary" to launch at Apple's "Spring Loaded" event next week, Tuesday, April 20. Gurman made the remarks during an interview for Bloomberg Technology, in which he reaffirmed that Apple will launch a new 11-inch and 12.9-inch iPad Pro, with the higher-end model featuring a brand new...
duanrui iphone13 notch samples

More Leaked iPhone 13 Samples Show Smaller Notch, Repositioned Earpiece and Front Camera

Wednesday April 14, 2021 1:06 am PDT by
Leaker known as "DuanRui" has today shared an image of two iPhone 13 "film samples," which show the same rumored smaller notch design coming to the iPhone 13 series that we've seen from other sources. In past tweets, DuanRui has accurately leaked the correct names of the iPhone 12 models and an iPad Air 4 manual revealing its new design, so there's good reason to think this leak is credible, ...
siir apple event april 20

Siri Reveals Apple Event Planned for Tuesday, April 20

Tuesday April 13, 2021 12:04 am PDT by
Siri has apparently prematurely revealed that Apple plans to hold an event on Tuesday, April 20, where the company is expected to reveal brand new iPad Pro models and possibly its long-awaited AirTags trackers. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Upon being asked "When is the next Apple Event," Siri is currently responding with, "The special event is on Tuesday, April...
apple event hashflag

Twitter Hashflag for April 20 Apple Event Goes Live

Tuesday April 13, 2021 2:21 pm PDT by
Following the overnight Siri leak and subsequent announcement that Apple will hold a media event on Tuesday, April 20, a new Twitter hashflag has appeared to help provide visibility for the event on the platform. For the last several recent events, Apple has utilized hashflags, which are little icons next to hashtags on Twitter, as a way to market its events. The company first started the...
parallels windows 10 arm mac

Parallels 16.5 Can Virtualize ARM Windows Natively on M1 Macs With Up to 30% Faster Performance

Wednesday April 14, 2021 7:00 am PDT by
Parallels today announced the release of Parallels Desktop 16.5 for Mac with full support for M1 Macs, allowing for the Windows 10 ARM Insider Preview and ARM-based Linux distributions to be run in a virtual machine at native speeds on M1 Macs. Parallels says running a Windows 10 ARM Insider Preview virtual machine natively on an M1 Mac results in up to 30 percent better performance compared ...
iphone 13 pro render rear

iPhone 13 Pro Rumored to Be Thicker and Feature Larger Rear Camera System

Wednesday April 14, 2021 7:07 am PDT by
Tech blog 91Mobiles has obtained 3D renders of what it claims will be the iPhone 13 Pro, revealing a largely familiar design with a few notable changes, including a smaller notch and a significantly larger rear camera system. Following renders of the standard iPhone 13 model from MySmartPrice yesterday, which showed a new diagonal rear camera layout, these renders of the 6.1-inch iPhone 13...
third gen Apple pencil leaked video

Video of Alleged Third-Generation Apple Pencil Leaks Ahead of Apple Event

Friday April 16, 2021 6:13 am PDT by
A video purporting to be of the third-generation Apple Pencil has today been shared online, showing a glossy finish that mirrors previous leaks. New ✏️ ready to 🚢 #AppleEvent @TommyBo50387266 pic.twitter.com/s4RCDwDi5M— 漢尼斯·拉斯納 🇨🇳 (@ileakeer) April 16, 2021 The brief video from Twitter account @ileakeer, spotted by 9to5Mac, shows an Apple Pencil with a glossy finish much like the...