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Analysts Predict Q2 2014 Decline in iPad Sales, Slight Increase in iPhone Sales

Sales of Apple's iPad and iPhone remained strong during the holiday season with record quarterly sales reported in Q1 2014. Analyst predictions for Apple's second quarter of its fiscal year suggest iPhone sales may rise slightly, while iPad sales may decline slightly, reports Philip Elmer-DeWitt of Fortune's Apple 2.0 blog.

ipad-sales-quarterly
The consensus estimate from 21 Wall Street professionals and 13 amateur analysts predict iPad sales of 19.3 million, a 0.7 percent decline in Q2 2014. This is a significant change from Q2 2013, which saw a 55 percent year-over-year increase.
The consensus estimate, at 19.3 million, would represent a 0.7% decline, with the pros slightly more optimistic (at 19.4 million) than the amateurs (19.2 million). Dragging down the amateur numbers is the 15 million estimate submitted by the Braeburn Group's Matt Lew. Tugging in the other direction is Horace Dediu's 21.8 million. One represents a year-over-year decline of 23%, the other an increase of 12%.
This dip in sales may only be temporary as Apple is expected to launch updated models of the iPad Air and iPad mini with Retina Display later this year, and may launch a larger-screen iPad Pro sometime in future after production issues are solved.

Apple will announce its earnings for the second fiscal quarter (first calendar quarter) of 2014 on Wednesday, April 23. The earnings release is posted just after 4:30 PM ET following the close of regular stock trading, and the conference call is scheduled to follow at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific.

Top Rated Comments

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15 weeks ago
You can only MILK your product line for so long before your sales chart begins to look like a sine wave. Hey Tim, where's the new an exciting stuff you promised? While your at it where's the updated Mac mini? :rolleyes:
Rating: 10 Votes
15 weeks ago
Cue taps. It's over.

or...


get ready to buy AAPL at a bargain.
Rating: 5 Votes
15 weeks ago
More accurate headline: "Analysts predict Apple sales based on numbers extracted from rectal cavities"

It's possible that some of these guesses are correct, but based on past precedent, if they are, it's not much better than dumb luck. They're going to make up some plausible numbers, then irrational people will buy or sell AAPL based on them, then after the actual announcement an overlapping group of irrational people will buy or sell AAPL based on how Apple either beat or failed to meet the predictions. And whether said people buy or sell will not necessarily be in direct relation to predicted or actual performance--exceeding expectations has no guarantee of not generating a selloff. for example.

At least it's better than the firms that make wild guesses about what the market will look like in five years, then release confident-sounding reports with precise numbers based on them.
Rating: 5 Votes
15 weeks ago
All I read was "Analysts Predict...", and I tuned out.
Rating: 5 Votes
15 weeks ago
I can only see a rise in iPhone sales if they release a new iPhone in Q2, otherwise that doesn't make sense.
Rating: 4 Votes
15 weeks ago

All I read was "Analysts Predict...", and I tuned out.


It's uncanny how this is constantly posted in analyst threads - specifically ones that predict not-so-rosy pictures.

If you tuned out, why are you posting? Why did you even bother hitting the "reply" button? How do you even know what the analyst said if you tuned out? :confused:
Rating: 4 Votes
15 weeks ago

There is no $1000 iPad. The most expensive iPad Air Cellular 128GB is $929.


After taxes its roughly $1000 bucks.
Rating: 3 Votes
15 weeks ago

iOS 7 on iPad is a joke. Just a blown up version of the iPhone OS. Something they used to make fun of on Android. Apple's attention to detail is slowly fading.


Sad but true, obsessed with profit taking Apple is no longer the agile innovator. Content with sitting back counting their profits, they seem to be content. Just like the large corporations like General Motors, Apple is slow to respond to the market. Yet they have gotten away with it because their customers buy the logo. Apples riding on the coat tails of the former CEO's accomplishments.
Rating: 3 Votes
15 weeks ago



Apple needs new, big innovations to start rolling out, faster and faster. Or, they, we, analysts, etc need to accept that Apple is shifting from a growth company to an income company like Coca Cola and quit carrying expectations for amazing YOY growth. Griping and calling analysts stupid doesn't change revenue numbers. Only buyers change revenue numbers. If Apple's YOY growth is hugely important to us individual consumers and "we" own the latest of everything Apple puts out, we've more than done our part. Apple just needs a lot more of us to show up. Or Apple needs to deliver something else(s) that makes "us" want to buy that something else(s) too.



Well, thanks for your great post. And yes, it's time to realize that the most valuable public company in the world can't grow at the same percentage forever. The reason is obvious for anyone that has at least the 4th grade, and people shouldn't act like this.

It also has nothing to do with Apple's philosophy, and attention to detail, etc. Clearly the innovation pace and products are better than ever. It's just that is easy to grow 100 % from one potato to 2 potatoes than 50 % from 1 billion potatoes to 1.5% potatoes.

But like I said, most analysts aren't that bright and their knowledge is far from advanced or even "in line" with most professionals.
Rating: 3 Votes
15 weeks ago
Don't understand the defensive nature from the comments in this post.

Think about it. It's been a few years. There's a pretty hefty saturation of tablets in the market now. The iPad isn't *that* gamechanging anymore--hell, I love iOS as much as the next guy but it is seriously under-optimized for tablet screens.

No reason to think that iPad sales haven't peaked. You don't need a degree to deduce that, just common sense and a general understanding of the tablet market.
Rating: 3 Votes

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