Got a tip for us? Share it...

New in OS X: Get MacRumors Push Notifications on your Mac

Resubscribe Now Close

Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q2 2013 Earnings Call

Philip Elmer-Dewitt has assembled his quarterly list of analyst predictions ahead of Apple's earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 67 analysts: 26 "independent" and 41 "institutional" who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

This is one of the most important earnings calls of Apple CEO Tim Cook's tenure as CEO. Apple's stock price is down significantly from its highs of last year, and investors are concerned about Apple's growth prospects across both existing and new product lines.

Q22013
Typically, the amateur analysts expect significantly higher revenue and earnings than the professionals, but Elmer-Dewitt notes the gap is less than usual this time. The independent consensus has Apple just beating its guidance, while the pro's are expecting Apple to hit near the middle of its range.
The pros, as usual, are more cautious than the independents -- but not that much. The gap between the two group's average estimates (summarized above) as as close as I've ever seen them, with the amateurs calling for revenues only 1.3% higher than professionals.
In the first quarter, the company earned $13.1 billion in profit on revenue of $54.5 billion.

Last quarter Apple changed how it provides guidance, choosing to offer a range of guidance for what the company believes it can achieve, rather than a point prediction. Apple provided guidance for the second quarter for revenue of between $41 and $43 billion and gross margin between 37.5% and 38.5%.

Apple will announce its earnings for the second fiscal quarter of 2013 (first calendar quarter of 2012) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern. MacRumors will have live coverage of the proceedings.

Top Rated Comments

(View all)

16 months ago
26 independent analysts:

Rating: 24 Votes
16 months ago

You don't seem to understand investors. They are not fan boys. They invest their money in hopes it will grow, not stagnate. So just because Apple makes billions if it's not making billions more quarter over quarter, i.e., growing, that's NOT a good thing.


Last quarters, the stock didn't drop because revenues didn't grow, it dropped because the growth of revenues didn't grow. They expect Apple's revenues to grow exponentially since that's what we've been accustomed to in recent years.

Even if Apple has, by a large margin, the highest profit share in 3 of the most profitable industries on earth (computers, smartphones and tablets), they're expected to continue growing very fast by introducing new super-profitable categories and again, grabbing most of their profits while said categories grow exponentially. All that without losing profit share in past categories while they also continue to grow. Easy task eh?

Meanwhile, companies like Amazon see their stock going up while they report no profit at all.
Rating: 11 Votes
16 months ago

In b4 Apple is doomed because it didn't meet Wall Street's expectations but still made billions of dollars.


You don't seem to understand investors. They are not fan boys. They invest their money in hopes it will grow, not stagnate. So just because Apple makes billions if it's not making billions more quarter over quarter, i.e., growing, that's NOT a good thing.
Rating: 9 Votes
16 months ago

In b4 Apple is doomed because it didn't meet Wall Street's expectations but still made billions of dollars.


Agreed. I know of no other business that is called "doomed" because they "only" pull in margins above 35% every time, when others pull in something like 5% and are treated like the Second Coming.

----------

You don't seem to understand investors. They are not fan boys. They invest their money in hopes it will grow, not stagnate. So just because Apple makes billions if it's not making billions more quarter over quarter, i.e., growing, that's NOT a good thing.


Wrong. They want their money to double RIGHT NOW instead of exercising the patience that a sensible person would. That's why Warren Buffet plays the long game and reaps amazing success, and these other airchair experts are little more than get-rich-quick-demanding fools.
Rating: 6 Votes
16 months ago
In b4 Apple is doomed because it didn't meet Wall Street's expectations but still made billions of dollars.
Rating: 4 Votes
16 months ago
It's been exactly 6 months since the last Apple event, something needs to happen soon!
Rating: 4 Votes
16 months ago
Thats nice and all.. but when is WWDC 2013?! I want to have something to look forward to :(
Rating: 2 Votes
16 months ago



I shop at Amazon nearly weekly, $25-50 of books and household supplies

Vastly different than a once every 5 years-computer / 3 years-mobile phone


Amazon is a seller of other people's stuff. If Amazon sells a $1000 Sony TV... only a teeny tiny part of that goes to Amazon.

That's why retailers like Amazon can have billions in revenue... but only have millions in actual profit.

Of your $50 in household purchases... Amazon maybe gets 50 cents in profit (I'm guessing, obviously, but you get the point)

Apple could theoretically make more money from you buying one iPhone every 3 years than Amazon makes from your weekly purchases over the same 3 years.
Rating: 2 Votes
16 months ago

Last quarters, the stock didn't drop because revenues didn't grow, it dropped because the growth of revenues didn't grow. They expect Apple's revenues to grow exponentially since that's what we've been accustomed to in recent years.

Even if Apple has, by a large margin, the highest profit share in 3 of the most profitable industries on earth (computers, smartphones and tablets), they're expected to continue growing very fast by introducing new super-profitable categories and again, grabbing most of their profits while said categories grow exponentially. All that without losing profit share in past categories while they also continue to grow. Easy task eh?

Meanwhile, companies like Amazon see their stock going up while they report no profit at all.


Exactly.

Their growth slowed so they are no longer valued at $700/share (which was the accepted price for the exponential growth that you yourself admit we've grown accustomed to in recent years). Why then is it a surprise that when actual growth comes in lower than expected, that the stock would be worth less?

In any case, expect this stock to drop like it's a call on an iphone in about 3 hours.
Rating: 2 Votes
16 months ago

I shop at Amazon nearly weekly, $25-50 of books and household supplies

Vastly different than a once every 5 years-computer / 3 years-mobile phone

Yeah. Everyone in the world could buy everything they would need EVER, EVERYDAY And Amazin wouldn't make more than 10 billion dollars per quarter. The reason why is amazons net margin - 0.8%. They make NOTHING. it's all "SOMEDAY" we'll raise margins. It's a rediculous notion, and the stock will suffer in the next 5 years if they keep it up.
Rating: 2 Votes

[ Read All Comments ]