Got a tip for us? Share it...

Apple Predicted to Sell Nearly 200 Million iPhones Next Year

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has historically been rather conservative in her predictions of Apple's performance, issued a new report yesterday (via Fortune) suggesting that Apple could sell nearly 200 million iPhones next year. The number would be more than double that of this year's iPhone sales, which currently stand at 56 million ahead of a blockbuster quarter that is expected to add perhaps 30-35 million to that number.

- iPhones are selling surprisingly briskly. Based on the survey and last week's comments from AT&T (T), Huberty estimates that Apple (AAPL) could ship anywhere from 31 to 36 million iPhones this quarter -- as much as 20% higher than the 30 million she's modeling and nearly 30% higher than the 28 million Wall Street is expecting.

- iPhone demand is accelerating. "Surprisingly," she writes, "US consumers expect to buy more iPhones in C1Q12 than C4Q11" (emphasis hers). Even discounting the survey results 10%, that suggests Apple could sell 13 million iPhones in the U.S. and 41 million worldwide next quarter. Morgan Stanley's model has Apple selling 30 million iPhones in calendar Q1 2012.

Huberty's predictions are based on her own research and a consumer survey by AlphaWise that pegs demand for the iPhone next year 40% higher than anticipated by Morgan Stanley in its "base case" scenario.


On the tablet side, the survey data points to a similar story, with Huberty's survey data indicating that Apple could see sales of over 80 million iPads next year, well above her firm's estimate of 52 million units. Apple has sold 25 million iPads so far this year, with analysts estimating that Apple may add 13-14 million units to that total in the holiday quarter.

Top Rated Comments

(View all)

23 weeks ago
iPhone sales per year (roughly rounded)

2008: 13.6 million
2009: 25.2 million
2010: 47.4 million
2011: 86-91 million (estimated)


iPhone sales have been nearly doubling for the past 4 years. 200 million may be a little high but not that crazy. Hey guys look, I'm an analyst!
Rating: 7 Positives / 1 Negatives
23 weeks ago

just bought a windows phone ... sorry apple.
HTC Titan.

Thing is the biz


Ridiculous screen size (4.7)
Bluetooth 2.1 (two generations old)
720p video recording
Single Core Processor.
Minuscule software market

I think Apple is probably more sorry for you
Rating: 5 Positives / 1 Negatives
23 weeks ago
A huge number - but it's coming from an
Analyst - so the prediction probably way off!
Rating: 4 Positives / 0 Negatives
23 weeks ago

I want voice-only FaceTime

EarTime?
Rating: 3 Positives / 0 Negatives
23 weeks ago
I know I am off the topic here but .....what would be next killer feature in iPhone 5? I am not talking about screen size increasment. It seems there is nothing out there to wish for....just better processor, design and battery I guess.
Rating: 3 Positives / 0 Negatives
23 weeks ago

I want voice-only FaceTime so that we can finally drop the wireless carriers.


iMessage already save my SMS money. FaceTime (or may be TalkTime :) without video will be also a great feature.
Rating: 3 Positives / 0 Negatives
23 weeks ago

Only if apple fixes the batteries on these iPhones! I have two coworkers that are apple fanatics that jumped ship to go to androids! I am on my 3rd iPhone 4s. So far so good, but last two were good for a few weeks too.


That's like jumping out the frying pan into the fire. Androids aren't known for battery life so leaving the iPhone for this would be silly.

No Apple fanatic buys an Android phone unless they have to for some reason.
Rating: 2 Positives / 0 Negatives
23 weeks ago

Be interested in other things you don't like. I honestly like my phone better in almost every other category than my wife's outside of battery life. Maybe it's because I customized mine to the point that things are much easier and faster for me. But, if someone else picked it up they'd likely have no clue how to open anything.


Here are a few just off the top of my head....
- Laggy as all get out
- Bluetooth randomly drops
- email sucks (compared to Blackberry)
- if I want to flash a ROM, need to set up all screens again
- gps is slow, slow, slow

I'm running 2.2 (Bionix rom by Team Whiskey) on a Samsung Vibrant. Can't expect Samsung / T-Mobile to ever release a firmware update. This phone is my last Samsung, and I'm not too enamored with Android, although I do like my Kindle Fire.

I'm moving to an iPhone as soon as my contract is over. The crap email and Google sync is not something I want to deal with any longer. Much less always being hooked to a charger.
Rating: 1 Positives / 0 Negatives
23 weeks ago

I wonder when every human on earth will have one? Then the sales will begin to drop. So much for being unique.


That's like saying once every one has a TV, no one will want to buy a new one.

Gee, everyone has a car, I'd better dump my auto stock...

Some people's logic defies logic...
Rating: 1 Positives / 0 Negatives
23 weeks ago

That's like jumping out the frying pan into the fire. Androids aren't known for battery life so leaving the iPhone for this would be silly.

No Apple fanatic buys an Android phone unless they have to for some reason.


Like if they have TMO like me. No Andriod yet, but getting close.
Rating: 1 Positives / 0 Negatives

[ Read All Comments ]