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Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q4 2012 Earnings Call

Philip Elmer-Dewitt has put together his list of analyst predictions ahead of Apple's quarterly earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 36 analysts: 16 "independent" and 20 "institutional" who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

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As usual, the independents are much more bullish than the institutional analysts. The independent consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) of $9.66 on revenue of $37.23 billion. The institutional consensus is EPS of $8.75 on $35.51 billion in revenue. This is a 5% difference on revenue and a 10% difference on EPS, a smaller gap than we've seen in recent quarters.

Last quarter the company earned $8.8 billion in profit on revenue of $35 billion. For this quarter, Apple issued guidance of $34 billion in revenue with profits of $7.65 per share. The company typically exceeds its guidance by a significant margin.

Apple will announce its earnings for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2012 (third calendar quarter of 2012) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern. MacRumors will have live coverage of the proceedings.

Though the September quarter is the final quarter of Apple's fiscal year, AllThingsD quotes JP Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz:
"Our view is that September quarter numbers do not matter," J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz said in a Wednesday research note to clients. "Apple can miss or beat. It does not matter. … In our view, the two important iPhone and iPad launches set the stage for big numbers to be reported in late January 2013 as relates to December quarter results."

Top Rated Comments

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20 months ago
i dont care if they made a few billions more, just give me iTunes 11!
Rating: 8 Positives
20 months ago

Say, why is iTunes 11 a big deal to you?


Because it goes to 11!
Rating: 5 Positives
20 months ago
Sold my shares...I'm going to re-buy after the selloff after this below average earnings that's going to affect the market.
Rating: 3 Positives
20 months ago

i dont care if they made a few billions more, just give me iTunes 11!


Didn't they say iTunes 11 was coming in October? Well October is almost over...
Rating: 3 Positives
20 months ago

Say, why is iTunes 11 a big deal to you?


Because some of us are excited to see it (including myself), and we expected it to be out just after the iPad Mini event
Rating: 3 Positives
20 months ago

What's the exchange rate?



As of the market close, $84.41USD:$1.00 Monopoly Buck
Rating: 2 Positives
20 months ago
I can see the share price being bolstered once the undoubted success of the iPad mini over the holiday period gets factored in.

But surely by the middle of next year Apple is heading for a period of decline?

They have had a fantastic run ever since the iPod came out but surely innovation will slow now as the driving force behind all this success (the web) matures?

What does everyone else think? are we going to be as amazed as we were when the iPod, iPhone, iPad came out again? itunes, the app store, genius bars etc, etc all of these are established now and have lost the thrill of the new.

It feels to me like the last days of the roman empire to be honest.
Rating: 2 Positives
20 months ago

Expected by whom? Apple has not provided any guidance for Q1 2013 until today. If those are preliminary guesses by the Street, then they are completely different projections. Apple's is always going to be much lower.


The $15.43 was an analyst estimate. But that analyst estimate translates into the current stock price. If the analysts have to bring down their estimates because of the guidance by Apple than the stock will come down. It's all relative.
Rating: 1 Positives
20 months ago
I always shake my head the revenue and earnings posts on MR where you hear from all the 'shareholders' around here and how excited they are...even though they own less than 10 shares.

I don't get any more excited about AAPL making huge profits than I do Exxon. They earned it, I don't hate them for it. But I'm not going to grab my pompoms and cheer about it.
Rating: 1 Positives
20 months ago

Maybe you give spotify a try, that's what I use on the desktop and also on the go. The UI is definitely different and I think it's a great way to find new music.


A sidebar that has menu items and a list of songs in the main window. Not really that different.
Rating: 1 Positives

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