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Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q1 2013 Earnings Call

Philip Elmer-Dewitt has assembled his quarterly list of analyst predictions ahead of Apple's earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 67 analysts: 28 "independent" and 39 "institutional" who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

Consensusrevenue
As usual, the independents are much more bullish than the institutional analysts. The independent consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) of $15.11 on revenue of $58.84 billion. The institutional consensus is EPS of $13.45 on $54.74 billion in revenue. Across all analysts, the median expectation is for earnings of $14.20 on $55.96 billion in revenue, a year-over-year increase of 10% and 30% respectively. 2011's holiday quarter was the strongest in the company's history.

Last quarter the company earned $8.2 billion in profit on revenue of $36 billion. For this quarter, Apple issued guidance of $52 billion in revenue with profits of $11.75 per share. The company has, in the past, exceeded its guidance by a significant margin.

Apple will announce its earnings for the first fiscal quarter of 2013 (fourth calendar quarter of 2012) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern. MacRumors will have live coverage of the proceedings.

Top Rated Comments

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23 months ago

Can everyone get their money out? Or if people stop putting more cash in, do you expect them to walk to apple headquarters and collect a piece of the building?


I'm not sure which you don't understand the most, a Ponzi Scheme or how stocks work.
Rating: 6 Votes
23 months ago
Looks pretty good to me, but im sure we will here that apple is doomed soon.
Rating: 6 Votes
23 months ago
Apple is here and must innovate to avoid becoming a dog.
Attachment 392136
Rating: 5 Votes
23 months ago
Hold on to your hats kids. This is going to be a very important earnings report.
Rating: 3 Votes
23 months ago
I am prepared to see the stock tumble like a rock no matter what Apple post because the trend in the market is to find anything negative about Apple and focus on that.

Even if numbers are stellar guidance for next quarter will be low and the market will focus on that and the stock will drop like a rock. If not right away over the next week or so after a possible initial rise on a great (not good) earnings report. If the earning report is on target or under... Then expect a huge massive drop in after hours... either way the momentum of the market is not favorable and Apple will drop.

The only way they can sustain upward momentum right now is an out of the world quarter, and heavenly guidance for next quarter. Without these the market will lose faith... They need to see a new product to get inspired.
Rating: 3 Votes
23 months ago
You can clearly see on that graph why Q3 '12 was considered a miss. It was really the first time in quite a while that Apple came so close to their own guidance and one of the only times "Pro Analysts" were so over the actual earnings.

But for this quarter, Q1 '13 ? Forget it, holidays/iPhone 5 launch/iPad Mini ramp up ? It's going to be a good one for Apple no doubt.
Rating: 2 Votes
23 months ago


Looking at that graph I cant understand the stocks actually. Maybe i never will.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_Scheme (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_Scheme)

This should help.
Rating: 2 Votes
23 months ago
It looks like the independent analysts got cocky after 2011 and didn't know when to scale back.

I remember how their unbridled enthusiasm kept giving them 'wins' over the pros quarter after quarter, but now looking at this graph I can see that they weren't really smarter, just more optimistic. In 2011 that worked for them. In 2012 it didn't.

Looks like neither side is really better at predicting the future than the other. Imagine that.
Rating: 2 Votes
23 months ago
“Gross margin was 38.6 percent compared to 44.7 percent in the year-ago quarter"

This is what Wall St. is going to pound on, and this is why apple may be switching to less expensive casings for it's iPhones. Margins.
Rating: 2 Votes
23 months ago

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_Scheme (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_Scheme)

This should help.


Yeah, the stock market is a ponzi scheme :rolleyes:
Rating: 2 Votes

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