Analysts Predict Apple Earnings

The Mac Observer reports comments by financial analysts from Piper Jaffray and American Technology Research regarding Apple's upcoming Q3-2006 financial results, to be webcast this Wednesday, July 19, at 2pm EDT.

They predict Apple sales results that are close to but slightly lower than the Wall Street consensus estimates, with iPod quarterly sales between 7.7 and 8.3 million units, Mac sales of 1.2 to 1.23 million units, and revenue of $4.6 billion and $0.48 earnings per share, compared to Wall Street estimates for revenue of $4.95 billion and $0.52 earnings per share.

From Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray:

We do believe Apple is working to release a new/refreshed iPod in the September quarter. If we are wrong, Apple will miss some back-to-school benefit, but ultimately, we are confident the company will not miss the critical pre-holiday window.

However, we believe the more critical component in the quarter will be Mac market share. If new/refreshed iPods are not slated to be released in the quarter, we believe starting in the September quarter investors will start to place increasing emphasis on changes in Mac market share, given the Intel transition will likely be complete. If Mac market share grows in the September quarter, we expect the Street will look past a potential delay in new iPods.

Shaw Wu of American Technology Research believes the back-to-school season will boost Apple revenue and earnings per share but that "weaker European seasonality" will dampen the effect. He predicts that Apple will ship a revised iPod nano in late September or in October.