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Android to Surpass iPhone in Market Share by 2012?

Wednesday October 7, 2009 8:20 am PDT by Eric Slivka
Computerworld reports that research firm Gartner is forecasting significant growth in Google's Android operating system for smart phones, noting that it expects Android to surpass Apple's iPhone to claim the number two spot behind Symbian OS with 14.5% of the global smart phone market by 2012.

While the first Android product release, the T-Mobile G1, only won a lukewarm response, Android 1.5 (code-named Cupcake) is well thought-out, Dulaney said. Other expected improvements in Android for its application store and development environment will be "backed by the power of Google's search engine," he said. "Google's other up-and-coming consumer and enterprise products should make[Android] a dominant platform."

And because Android and Google operate in an "integrative and open environment, [they] could easily top ... the singular Apple," he said.

Android will also run on phones from several manufacturers, helping its growth, especially when compared to the iPhone, Dulaney said. In 2010, as many as 40 models of Android devices will ship, and the next OS update, code-named Donut, will ship in the second quarter, Dulaney predicted.

The predicted margin is small, however, with Apple predicted to grab 13.7% of the smart phone market in 2012. Both companies are forecasted to take significant share from Symbian, which currently holds approximately 50% market share but is expected to fall to 39% over that time.
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hanpa
Posted: 34 months ago
Probably, unless Apple recognizes the competition and responds by:
- Removal of 3g cellular restrictions not technically motivated at least outside of the US
- Allowing at least music apps like Spotify to run in the background
- Improving the app approval process to become more like the Android process
- Flash support in Safari (with an option to disable this)
- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C
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spillproof
Posted: 34 months ago

Other expected improvements in Android for its application store and development environment will be "backed by the power of Google's search engine,"


As in web apps?
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laprej
Posted: 34 months ago
I realize that Android is supposed to be awesome, and it is fairly nice having programmed for it in the past. But the openness to which they refer in the article is really a fault in this case and not a benefit.

For example, every phone manufacturer is going to have their own set of features. Some may have cameras, vibration, video playback, etc. With the iPhone, you know exactly what is there and what the device you're targeting can do. You can build better applications to utilize the specific hardware.

Apple takes some heat for having vendor lock-in, but it allows them to release beautiful hardware that just works whether it's phones or computers. It's not Windows code that gives BSODs but third-party drivers most of the time.

Android may end up taking some market share, but I doubt that it will beat the iPhone or Blackberry.
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nehunte
Posted: 34 months ago
Every phone that comes out after the iPhone is supposed to surpass the iPhone by 20**. This is getting old. It took how many years for someone to beat up on Nokia? That's right, it'll be a long time before you see a dent in the iPhone's armor.

I'm going to make a new smartphone next week. It's an iPhone-killer. Guaranteed.
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spencers
Posted: 34 months ago
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight, a cupcake is going to take down iPhone?
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Daphtdazz
Posted: 34 months ago
I mean, how else can they be coming up with a 2 year prediction to an accuracy of 0.67%?

You just wonder about the people making these claims. What have they done, exactly? Sat down in front of Excel, typed in a few numbers and then just written out the answer without even thinking about it? I suppose we should be thankful that it wasn't:

iPhone: 13.728285919847%
Android: 14.491509184751%

etc.

It seems like a big leap anyway to predict a 7 fold market share increase, let alone think it will beat the iPhone whose momentum seems very strong.
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MadGoat
Posted: 34 months ago
Of course Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

The success of the iPhone will not be surpassed by any single device however.
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Compile 'em all
Posted: 34 months ago


- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C


This is by far far the most ridiculous request I have ever read.

You want them to use a programming language other than Objective-C?

I don't even know where to start. LOL.
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Speedy2
Posted: 34 months ago

Probably, unless Apple recognizes the competition and responds by:
- Removal of 3g cellular restrictions not technically motivated at least outside of the US
- Allowing at least music apps like Spotify to run in the background
- Improving the app approval process to become more like the Android process
- Flash support in Safari (with an option to disable this)
- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C


None of these things play any role for the iPhone market share.
Far more relevant are:
- cheaper low-end models, iPhone Nano (not that likely)
- dropping provider exclusiveness (very likely, already happening: UK, Canada, more to come)

Analysts keep forgetting that Apple doesn't care that much about market share of sold handsets, but more about market share of profit. Thus, it could very well be that Android overtakes iPhone in a few years, given that manufacturers offer cheap phones running Android. If these phones are any good or if they generate much profit: I highly doubt it.
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ct2k7
Posted: 34 months ago

This is by far far the most ridiculous request I have ever read.

You want them to use a programming language other than Objective-C?

I don't even know where to start. LOL.


Erm.. you're being closed minded.

The SDK is limited only to the Apple OS, granted, it relies on hooks, however, you are alienating a hell of a lot of people from developing on the platform.
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