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18 Key Takeaways From Apple's First Earnings Call of 2019

Apple yesterday reported its earnings results for the first quarter of the 2019 fiscal year. Apple's CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri then went on a conference call with analysts to discuss the results. Key takeaways are below. Revenue of $84.3 billion. For financial details, see our earnings report coverage. 1.4 billion active devices at end of quarter. Apple Music now has over 50 million paying subscribers. App Store set single-day spending record: over $322 million on New Year's Day. 1.8 billion Apple Pay transactions in quarter, more than 2x vs. year-ago quarter. Target, Taco Bell, and Jack in the Box stores in U.S. will accept Apple Pay soon. Apple News now has over 85 million monthly active users. Apple News launching in Canada later this quarter. English and French. Apple's gross margin was 34.3% for hardware products and 62.8% for services. Apple remains on track to double its fiscal 2016 services revenue by 2020. Apple now has 360 million paid subscriptions across its services. Apple expects to surpass 500 million paid subscribers across its services in 2020. Wearables revenue driven by "amazing popularity" of Apple Watch and AirPods. Wearables category is "approaching the size of a Fortune 200 company." 506 Apple Stores across 22 regions at end of quarter. Apple ended the quarter with $245 billion in cash plus marketable securities. Apple to provide update on its capital return program in March earnings report. iPhone XR is best-selling iPhone model, then iPhone XS Max, then iPhone XS.More

Strategy Analytics: Apple Shipped an Estimated 65.9 Million iPhones in Holiday Quarter

Apple shipped an estimated 65.9 million iPhones during the first fiscal quarter of 2019 (aka the fourth calendar quarter of 2018) according to new data shared today by Strategy Analytics. As of this quarter, Apple is no longer providing a breakdown of unit sales of the iPhone, iPad, and Mac, so we will not have concrete data on how well the iPhone is selling going forward. Apple in Q1 2018 sold 77.3 million iPhones, which would mean Apple sold 11.4 million fewer iPhones in Q1 2019 if Strategy Analytics' estimates are correct, marking a 15 percent decline in sales year-over-year.Global iPhone shipments fell sharply, due to high retail pricing, unfavorable foreign exchange rates, intense competition from rivals like Huawei, battery replacement programs driving longer ownership cycles, diminished carrier subsidies in some developed markets, and flagging demand in some emerging markets.Apple's Q1 2019 iPhone revenue was $52 billion, down from $61 billion in the year-ago quarter, also a 15 percent decline. The drop in iPhone revenue led to total revenue of $84.31 billion, down from $88.3 billion in Q1 2018. Despite the decline in iPhone sales, which Apple CEO Tim Cook has attributed to weakness in China and fewer upgrades, Q1 2019 was Apple's second-best in terms of both revenue and profit, coming in behind only the first fiscal quarter of

Apple CEO Tim Cook: 'I Do Think Price is a Factor' in Declining iPhone Upgrades

During today's earnings call for the first fiscal quarter of 2019, Apple CEO Tim Cook was asked whether he thought that the pricing of the iPhone XR, XS, and iPhone XS Max was too high. In response, Cook said that while he didn't feel that was as much of a factor in the United States, it was an issue in emerging markets. The iPhone XS is priced the same as the iPhone X at $999, while the iPhone XS Max, a new device, was $100 more. The XR, at $749, was priced to be right in the middle of the entry level iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus models. Cook said that's a "pretty small difference in the United States compared to last year." In emerging markets, however, iPhone pricing was an issue due to the strength of the dollar. Foreign exchange rates amplified the pricing increases leading to weaker sales. Cook says that in January, in some locations, the company has absorbed all or part of the currency movements compared to a year ago, getting closer to local price compared to a year ago. Cook in an interview with Reuters earlier today said that Apple is lowering iPhone prices in some emerging markets. In developed markets, like Japan, a lack of subsidies has also become a major factor. Even in the U.S., where subsidies have been phased out for several years, Cook said that a person who last purchased an iPhone 6 or 6s for $199 when subsidies were still in place may be reluctant to upgrade to a device that costs upwards of $749 without subsidies. Apple is working to address the subsidy issue with trade-ins and installment

Apple CEO Tim Cook: Customers Are Holding on to Older iPhones 'a Bit Longer' Than in the Past

Apple saw lower than expected iPhone sales during its first fiscal quarter of 2019 (aka the 2018 holiday quarter) and one explanation provided by Apple was lower quarterly iPhone upgrades. During today's earnings call, Apple CEO Tim Cook delved into the reasons why Apple is seeing fewer upgrades. First and foremost, he named foreign exchange rates. The strength of the U.S. dollar has made the iPhone much more expensive in many parts of the world, which is why Apple today said that it plans to lower prices in some emerging markets. In Turkey, for example, the iPhone became so expensive due to exchange rates that revenue fell $700 million from the previous year. Cook also said that iPhone subsidies are becoming increasingly less common, which is impacting upgrade rates. In Japan, for example, it used to be common to have subsidies for smartphones, but local regulations have eliminated many of those. According to Cook, less than half of iPhones sold in Japan were subsidized compared to 3/4ths a year ago. The total value of subsidies has declined as well. Cook's third reason for fewer iPhone upgrades was the battery replacement program that Apple offered across 2018, allowing customers to swap out the battery in their iPhones for $29. Cook said that this made it inexpensive and efficient to replace iPhone batteries and hold on to older iPhones for a longer period of time. According to Cook, while analysts suggested Apple shouldn't do it, the company "strongly believes it was the right thing to do for [its] customers." To combat fewer upgrades, Cook pointed

Apple's Services Revenue Up 19% Year-Over-Year in Q1 2019, Hits New All-Time High

Apple's services category, which includes iTunes, the App Store, the Mac App Store, Apple Music, Apple Pay, and AppleCare is an increasingly important revenue driver for Apple amid stagnating iPhone sales, and services growth is once again hitting an all time high. During the first fiscal quarter of 2019, Apple's services segment brought in $10.9 billion in revenue, up from the $9.1 billion services earned in the first quarter of 2018. In all five of its geographic regions, including China, Apple saw new December quarter revenues record for the services category. Apple hit a December quarter record for AppleCare, and nearly 16 years after launching iTunes Store, it saw its highest quarterly revenue ever thanks to Apple Music. The App Store also saw record results propelled by record sales on Christmas and New Years. Over 1.8 billion Apple Pay transactions were made during the quarter, 2x more than the previous quarter, and Apple News set a new record with more than 85M monthly active users. Apple has more than 360 million paid subscribers across its services, an increase of 120 million compared to the year-ago quarter. Apple CFO Luca Maestri said that the company expects the total number of paid subscribers to surpass half a billion in 2020. Apple is aiming to reach $14 billion in services revenue per quarter by 2020, and it is well on its way towards reaching that goal. Apple is working on bolstering its services category in 2019, breaking into the television industry. Apple is has more than tw

Apple Now Has 1.4 Billion Active Devices Worldwide

Apple CEO Tim Cook today announced that its active installed base of devices has hit 1.4 billion, a milestone the company hit at the end of December. Apple's active installed base includes the iPhone, iPod touch, iPad, Mac, Apple TV, and Apple Watch models in use around the world. Of the 1.4 billion active devices, 900 million of those are iPhones. The new 1.4 billion milestone comes nearly a year after Apple announced that it had 1.3 billion active devices back in December 2018, and the growth comes despite a Q1 2019 decline in iPhone sales. On the strength of that active installed base, Apple's services category set new all-time records, seeing a 19 percent growth in revenue

Apple Lowering iPhone Prices in Some International Markets to Boost Sales

Apple CEO Tim Cook today told Reuters that the company is "rethinking" iPhone prices outside of the United States. Setting prices in U.S. dollars has made phones more expensive in local currencies, so Apple is planning to lower prices. Cook says that in some international markets, after assessing macroeconomic conditions, Apple will go back to pricing that's "more commensurate" with what local prices were last year to boost sales. "When you look at foreign currencies and then particularly those markets that weakened over the last year those (iPhone price) increases were obviously more," Cook told Reuters. "And so as we've gotten into January and assessed the macroeconomic condition in some of those markets we've decided to go back to more commensurate with what our local prices were a year ago in hopes of helping the sales in those areas."Apple has already started lowering the price of the iPhone for third-party distributors in China, and price cuts could also be introduced in other areas like India and Brazil, where the iPhone is prohibitively expensive and has seen stalled growth due to high pricing. Cook may provide details on specific areas where price cuts will be implemented during the earnings

Apple's 'Wearables, Home and Accessories' Category Now Bringing in More Revenue Than iPad, and Soon Mac

Apple's "Wearables, Home, and Accessories" category, which used to be called the "Other" category, has surpassed the iPad in revenue and is closing in on the Mac lineup as well. The Wearables, Home, and Accessories category brought in $7.3 billion during the quarter, compared to $6.7 billion for iPad and $7.4 billion for Mac. Overall, Wearables, Home and Accessories category growth was up 33 percent compared to the $5.5 billion it earned in the year-ago quarter. Apple Watch, HomePod, Apple TV, AirPods, Beats products, iPod touch, and Apple-branded and third-party accessories are included in the category, but it's Apple's wearables that have been driving growth. The wearables category has been setting regular quarterly revenue records thanks to the strength of Apple Watch sales. In Q4 2018, for example, Apple saw wearables growth over 50 percent, and we're likely to hear more about wearables during today's earnings call. As Asymco's Horace Dediu pointed out at the beginning of January, the Apple Watch is also now a "decidedly bigger business" than Apple's iPod ever was, based on historical revenue records and estimated Apple Watch sales. Apple does not break down Apple Watch sales individually, lumping the data in with sales of other products in the Wearables, Home, and Accessories category, but the company does often give hints on how well the Apple Watch is selling. With iPhone sales stagnating somewhat, Apple will be increasingly relying on revenue from its

Apple Reports 1Q 2019 Results: Nearly $20B Profit on $84.3B Revenue, Second-Best Quarter Ever Despite Earnings Warning

Apple today announced financial results for its first fiscal quarter of 2019, which corresponds to the fourth calendar quarter of 2018. For the quarter, Apple posted revenue of $84.31 billion and net quarterly profit of $19.965 billion, or $4.18 per diluted share, compared to revenue of $88.3 billion and net quarterly profit of $20.1 billion, or $3.89 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. The earnings report comes after Apple issued a rare warning on January 2 that revenue for the quarter would come in at least $5 billion below the company's original guidance, with Apple pointing to a number of factors including the later launch of the iPhone XR, general weakness in China, and fewer upgrades as customers took advantage of Apple's reduced pricing on battery replacements in 2018 to extend the lives of their current phones. Even with the earnings warning, the quarter was the second-best in Apple's history in terms of revenue and profit, trailing only the first fiscal quarter of 2018. Gross margin for the quarter was 38.0 percent, compared to 38.4 percent in the year-ago quarter, with international sales accounting for 62 percent of revenue. Apple also declared an upcoming dividend payment of $0.73 per share, payable February 14 to shareholders of record as of February 11. This quarter also marks a change in the way Apple reports its results, as the company is no longer providing unit sales data for iPhone, iPad, and Mac. Apple argues that quarterly unit sales are not an accurate indicator of the underlying strength of Apple's business, but critics have

Apple to Announce Q1 2019 Earnings on January 29, iPhone Unit Sales Won't Be Included

Apple today updated its investor relations page to announce that it will share its earnings for the first fiscal quarter (fourth calendar quarter) of 2019 on Tuesday, January 29. Along with the notice on when to expect earnings results, Apple today also announced revised guidance for the first fiscal quarter, which will make the January earnings call an interesting one. Apple now expects revenue of $84 billion and gross margin of 38 percent, down from a guidance of $89 to $93 billion provided in November during the fourth quarter earnings call. Apple CEO Tim Cook provided several reasons for the drop in an open letter to investors: iPhone XS, XS Max, and XR launch timing compared to iPhone X timing in 2017 A strong U.S. dollar Supply constraints on Apple Watch Series 4, iPad Pro, AirPods, and MacBook Air Economic weakness in emerging markets, specifically China Trade tensions with China Lower than anticipated iPhone revenue, primarily in China Weak iPhone upgrade numbers in some developed markets due to fewer carrier subsidies and low-priced battery replacements in 2018 The earnings call will provide more detailed information on Apple's revised guidance, though the January 29 earnings report will be the first without specific unit sales data for iPhone, iPad, and Mac, which Apple said it would stop providing back in November. It marks a major change in the way that Apple's sales data is reported, making estimating iPhone, Mac, and iPad product sales more difficult. At the time the change was announced, Apple CFO Luca Maestri said

Apple Blames Currency Fluctuations and Uncertainty in Emerging Countries for Weak Holiday Sales Estimates

Though iPhone revenue was up in 4Q 2018, fourth quarter iPhone XS and XS Max sales were not as strong as expected, and iPhone sales growth was essentially flat. Apple sold 46.9 million iPhones during the quarter, compared to 46.7 million in the year-ago quarter, missing analyst estimates. Apple's $89 to $93 billion revenue forecast for the first fiscal quarter of 2019 is rather also cautious, which Apple blamed on foreign exchange costs, issues with supply/demand balance, and weakness in emerging markets. "Virtually every foreign currency has depreciated against the dollar over the last 12 months," said Apple CFO Luca Maestri. "That adds 200 basis points of headwinds to the tune of $2 billion to our revenue." Uncertainty in emerging markets is also a factor. "There's some level of uncertainty at the macroeconomic model in some emerging countries where consumer confidence is not as high," said Maestri. Maestri also said that Apple has launched an "unprecedented number" of new products over the course of the last six weeks, and Apple has "some uncertainty" around supply/demand balance for some of these products. The launch timing of the new iPhones is also a factor, with the iPhone XR coming later than the XS and the XS Max. This had an effect on Apple's Q4 revenue and will also impact Q1. Despite the cautious guidance for the first fiscal quarter of 2018, Apple is "very excited" about its lineup of products and services entering the holiday shopping season, and Maestri said that Apple has the "strongest lineup" it's ever had. Going forward, Apple does

Apple to Stop Providing Unit Sales Data for iPhone, iPad and Mac Starting With December Quarter

During today's fourth quarter earnings call, Apple CFO Luca Maestri announced that going forward, Apple will not provide unit sales of iPhone, iPad, and Mac during its quarterly earnings reports. This marks a major change to the way that Apple reports data and it will make estimating iPad, Mac, and iPhone product sales a more difficult task. Apple is perhaps making this change because its unit sales are decreasing while revenue is growing due to rising ASPs. This quarter, for example, iPhone unit sales were flat at 46.9 million, but iPhone revenue was up 29 percent. According to Maestri, Apple does not believe that unit sales over the course of a 90-day period are an indicator of the underlying strength of its business. Apple also plans to rename the "Other Products" category to "Wearables, Home, and Accessories," a change that will also be made in the December quarter. This category will continue to include the Apple Watch, Apple TV, AirPods, HomePods, Beats headphones, and

Apple's Wearable Category Sets New September Quarter Revenue Record With Growth Over 50%

Apple's "Other Products" category, which includes AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, iPod touch, HomePod, Beats products, and Apple-branded and third-party accessories brought in an impressive $4.2 billion during the fourth fiscal quarter of 2018, representing a 31 percent increase in revenue. Apple does not break down the specific sales numbers of products in the "Other" category, which makes it difficult to determine specific sales numbers for products like the HomePod, AirPods, and the Apple Watch, but Cook says its wearables category set a September quarter revenue record with growth over 50 percent. Much of Apple's "Other Products" growth can likely be attributed to the Apple Watch Series 4, which came out in September. Cook said the Apple Watch Series 4 has become even more essential to people's daily lives, and response to the new model has been "overwhelmingly positive." Cook highlighted new ECG capabilities coming to the Apple Watch Series 4 in the United States later this year, which he described as an "unprecedented and potentially life changing

Apple's Services Revenue Up 17% Year-Over-Year in 4Q 2018, Hits All Time High of $10B

Apple's services category, which includes iTunes, the App Store, the Mac App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Pay, and AppleCare, continues to be an increasingly important revenue driver for Apple, and services growth is once again at an all time high. During the fourth fiscal quarter of 2018, Apple's services segment brought in $10 billion in revenue, up 17 percent from the $8.5 billion services earned in the fourth quarter of 2017. According to Apple CEO Tim Cook, services growth was actually at 27 percent if a one-time favorable adjustment from the year-ago quarter is excluded. Several services categories, including the App Store, AppleCare, Apple Pay, and Apple Music hit all-time revenue records. 330 million Apple customers subscribe to Apple services, a number that has increased 50 percent compared to a year ago. Cook highlighted Apple Pay's success during the quarter. Apple Pay transaction volume tripled year-over-year, with Apple Pay generating significantly more transactions than PayPal mobile and growing 4x faster. With the rollout of Apple Pay at Costco locations in the United States, 71 out of 100 major retailers support Apple Pay, and 60 percent of all U.S. retail locations support the Apple Pay service. Apple has said that it is aiming to reach $14 billion in services revenue per quarter by 2020, a goal the company is well on its way to achieving. Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty predicted that over the course of the next five years, services revenue growth will contribute more than 50 percent of Apple's total

Apple Reports 4Q 2018 Results: $14.1B Profit on $62.9B Revenue, 46.9M iPhones

Apple today announced financial results for the third calendar quarter and fourth fiscal quarter of 2018. For the quarter, Apple posted revenue of $62.9 billion and net quarterly profit of $14.1 billion, or $2.91 per diluted share, compared to revenue of $52.6 billion and net quarterly profit of $10.7 billion, or $2.07 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Revenue, profit, and EPS were all-time records for the September quarter. Gross margin for the quarter was 38.3 percent, compared to 37.9 percent in the year-ago quarter, with international sales accounting for 61 percent of revenue. Apple also declared an upcoming dividend payment of $0.73 per share, payable November 15 to shareholders of record as of November 12. For the quarter, Apple sold 46.9 million iPhones, up slightly from 46.7 million in the year-ago quarter. iPad sales fell to 9.7 million from 10.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2017, while Mac sales dipped to 5.3 million from 5.4 million. For the full fiscal year, Apple generated $265.6 billion in sales with $59.5 billion in net income, up from $229.2 billion in sales and $48.4 billion in net income for fiscal 2017. Both figures are also all-time company records, exceeding standards of $233.7 billion in sales and $53.4 billion in net income set in fiscal 2015.“We’re thrilled to report another record-breaking quarter that caps a tremendous fiscal 2018, the year in which we shipped our 2 billionth iOS device, celebrated the 10th anniversary of the App Store and achieved the strongest revenue and earnings in Apple’s history,” said

Apple Expected to Report Its Best Fourth Quarter Ever Today Following iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max Launch

Apple is set to report its earnings results for the fourth quarter of its 2018 fiscal year at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time today. The quarter began July 1, 2018 and ran through September 29, 2018, according to Apple's fiscal year accounting calendar. Apple provided the following guidance for the quarter back on July 31:revenue of $60 billion to $62 billion gross margin between 38 and 38.5 percent op. ex. of $7.95 billion to $8.05 billion other income/expense of $300 million tax rate of approximately 15 percent before discrete itemsApple's guidance suggests it will report its best fourth quarter results ever, by revenue, comfortably topping its 2017 record of $52.6 billion: 2014: $42.1 billion 2015: $51.5 billion 2016: $46.9 billion 2017: $52.6 billion 2018: $60+ billion Wall Street analysts forecast that Apple will report $61.5 billion revenue, above the midpoint of its guidance, and earnings per share of $2.78, according to 32 estimates averaged by Yahoo Finance. Key Takeaways and What to Look ForiPhone unit sales of around 47.5 million, according to a FactSet estimate. Apple began accepting iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max pre-orders September 14, just over two weeks before Apple's fourth quarter ended. Apple sold 46.7 million iPhones in the year-ago quarter. Apple doesn't break out iPhone sales on a model-by-model basis, but the iPhone's average selling price should reveal whether customers are leaning towards higher-priced iPhones such as the iPhone XS Max. iPhone ASP was $617.99 in the year-ago quarter. Mac unit sales should be boosted by 2018 MacBook Pro

Apple to Announce Q4 2018 Earnings on November 1

Apple today updated its investor relations page to announce that it will share its earnings results for the fourth fiscal quarter (third calendar quarter) of 2018 on Thursday, November 1. The earnings release will provide a look at sales of the new iPhone XS and XS Max during their first week of availability, and we may hear some details on how well the Apple Watch Series 4 sold. Apple has not provided launch weekend sales for the iPhone XS and XS Max, so earnings will mark the first look at how well the updated devices sold compared to the iPhone 8, 8 Plus, and X. Apple's guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017 includes expected revenue of $60 to $62 billion and gross margin between 38 and 38.5 percent. In 4Q 2017, Apple posted revenue of $52.6 billion and gross margin of 37.9 percent. The quarterly earnings statement will be released at 1:30 PM Pacific/4:30 PM Eastern, with a conference call to discuss the report taking place at 2:00 PM Pacific/5:00 PM Eastern. MacRumors will provide coverage of both the earnings release and conference call on November

Apple Has 4 Million Users Beta Testing its Software

Apple has been allowing developers and members of the public to test beta versions of new iOS, macOS, watchOS, and tvOS releases for quite some time now, and during today's earnings call, Apple CEO Tim Cook provided insight into just how many people try out new software ahead when it's officially released. At the current time, Apple has "over 4 million users" participating in its OS beta programs, according to Cook. Public beta testers have access to iOS 12, macOS Mojave, and tvOS 12, three operating system updates that will be rolling out this fall after an extended beta testing period, while developers have access to iOS 12, macOS Mojave, tvOS 12, and watchOS 5. watchOS 5, a new software update for the Apple Watch, is limited to developers because it's not possible to downgrade the software on an Apple Watch. Public beta testers and developers are tasked with testing Apple's software to help the company suss out bugs and improve features ahead of a public launch. Apple did not break out how many users participate in each of its beta programs, nor what percentage of those users are developers or public beta testers, but it's probably safe to say that iOS gets the lion's share of interest. Despite Apple's robust beta testing process, there are still major bugs that slip through on occasion, but Apple offers frequent fixes and updates for all of its operating

Apple CEO Tim Cook 'The Smartphone Market is Very Healthy'

During today's earnings call covering the third fiscal quarter of 2018, Apple CEO Tim Cook was questioned about the health of the smartphone market and the impact the company's choice to offer low-cost battery replacements might have on replacement cycles. In response, Cook said that he believes the smartphone market is "very healthy. "It's the best market to be in for someone in the business that we're in," said Cook. "Whether it grows one percent or two percent or five percent or six percent or 10 percent or shrinks one or two percent, it's a great market because it's just huge." iPhone revenue, Cook pointed out, was up 20 percent during the quarter compared to the third quarter of 2017, and Apple has seen mid-single digit growth averages on a weekly sales basis and double-digit growth on an ASP basis. Apple sold a total of 41.3 million iPhones during the quarter, bringing in revenue of nearly $30 billion. The iPhone X continued to be the most popular iPhone during the quarter. Cook said that he does believe replacement cycles are lengthening, and he says the "major catalyst" for that has been the fact that subsidized plans have become a much smaller percentage of total sales around the world. Apple's goal is to make great products to encourage customers to purchase new devices.I think for us, the thing we always have to do is come out with a really great, innovative product. I think iPhone X shows that when you deliver that, there's enough people out there that will like that, and it can be a really great business.In a separate response given to a question

Apple CEO Tim Cook on Tariffs: 'We're Hoping Calm Heads Prevail'

Apple CEO Tim Cook this afternoon spoke about the tariffs the United States has imposed on goods imported from China, and how Apple might be impacted. Cook said that while Apple believes the trade agreements the United States has with other major economies are in need of modernization, the company does not think that tariffs are the right approach. "We're sort of encouraging dialogue and so forth," said Cook. Apple CEO Tim Cook with Donald Trump at the Executive Tech Summit at Trump Tower in December 2016 In terms of the three tariffs that have already been put in place that impact steel, aluminum, and $50B worth of additional goods from China, none of Apple's products have been directly impacted. A fourth tariff on $200 billion in Chinese goods is out for public comment, and Apple says it is evaluating the tariff and will be sharing its views on it with the administration before the end of the comment period. The original Apple Watch has been named in the latest proposal, alongside devices that include the Fitbit charge and some Sonos speakers. Apple has already discontinued its original Apple Watch and newer Apple Watch models are not impacted. Cook said that examining tariffs is a "tedious process" because there are factors to consider that include not only revenue, but also purchases being made through other companies unrelated to revenue, such as data centers. Apple plans to share its results at a later date. According to Cook, the risk associated with a macroeconomic issue like an economic slowdown or currency fluctuation is difficult to quantify,