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Ming-Chi Kuo Says 'Worst Soon Over' in Regards to Slowing iPhone Sales
Earlier this month, Apple lowered its revenue guidance for the first quarter of the 2019 fiscal year by up to $9 billion due to fewer iPhone upgrades than it anticipated, particularly in the Greater China region.
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, believes the "worst" will be "soon over" in regards to the slowdown. In his latest research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo opined that the "share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative."
Specifically, he estimates iPhone shipments in the second quarter of 2019 will reach 34–37 million units, slightly higher than the market consensus of 30–35 million units. That would still be a roughly 14 percent decline on a year-over-year basis, but far better than an estimated 29 percent drop in the first quarter.
As long as the US-China trade war does not worsen, Kuo expects the improvement to continue into the second half of 2019, with iPhone shipments likely to be generally flat compared to the second half of 2018 thanks to stronger replacement demand, trade-in programs, and market share gain in European markets.
Kuo maintains his forecast of 188–192 million iPhone shipments in 2019.
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, believes the "worst" will be "soon over" in regards to the slowdown. In his latest research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo opined that the "share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative."
Our report published on December 14, 2018, was the first to cut the estimation of 2019 iPhone shipments to 190mn units or less; the current market consensus on 2019 iPhone shipments (160–180mn units) is much lower than our estimation and we believe the share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative.Kuo has slightly cut his estimate for iPhone shipments in the first quarter of 2019 from 38–42 million units to 36–38 million units because the "demand for new models in China and emerging markets is lower than expected," but he believes the decline will begin to ease starting in the second quarter.
We maintain our forecast of 188–192mn units for 2019 iPhone shipments. We believe the downside risks of share prices for the Apple and iPhone supply chain are limited in the near term given that 2Q19 iPhone shipments will likely be better than the market consensus.
Specifically, he estimates iPhone shipments in the second quarter of 2019 will reach 34–37 million units, slightly higher than the market consensus of 30–35 million units. That would still be a roughly 14 percent decline on a year-over-year basis, but far better than an estimated 29 percent drop in the first quarter.
As long as the US-China trade war does not worsen, Kuo expects the improvement to continue into the second half of 2019, with iPhone shipments likely to be generally flat compared to the second half of 2018 thanks to stronger replacement demand, trade-in programs, and market share gain in European markets.
Kuo maintains his forecast of 188–192 million iPhone shipments in 2019.
Buyer's Guide: iPhone XS (Neutral), iPhone XR (Neutral)
[ 191 comments ]
Top Rated Comments
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4 weeks ago
Tens of millions of iPhone users around the globe won’t upgrade their phones until there’s a compact, thumb-friendly iPhone in the lineup again.
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4 weeks ago
Prices are to high. I have however been purchasing more Apple stuff but it’s sll last years tech. Apple Watch 3 LTE and 10.5 iPad. Just can’t afford the new stuff.... and I’ve got a pretty good Paying job. That extra 100 on nearly everything they have released has really made it much harder to purchase the latest and greatest.
4 weeks ago
IMHO, Apple needs to STOP being a Super High Premium Company and just be a High Premium Company!
4 weeks ago
People don't like data, but the worst was in China. Other markets did quite well. In fact, the US, Canada, Netherlands, Korea, Italy, Germany, etc all hit records in Q12019.
Other companies have since reported weakness in China as well (Intel, Samsung). Apple was in front of this and is working on fixing the issues in China.
Apple is going to report record EPS for Q12019 and will execute in FY2019, as usual. I believe 160M iPhone sales in 2019 is totally ridiculous. They did 217M last year, so unit sales just are not going to drop that quickly. That would indicate a 26% decline in iPhone sales.
Remember, they are going to post $84B in sales in 90 days versus $88B last year, a 5% impcat. A significant drop in iPhone sales would have an even larger impact, more like the 26% above.
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Other companies have since reported weakness in China as well (Intel, Samsung). Apple was in front of this and is working on fixing the issues in China.
Apple is going to report record EPS for Q12019 and will execute in FY2019, as usual. I believe 160M iPhone sales in 2019 is totally ridiculous. They did 217M last year, so unit sales just are not going to drop that quickly. That would indicate a 26% decline in iPhone sales.
Remember, they are going to post $84B in sales in 90 days versus $88B last year, a 5% impcat. A significant drop in iPhone sales would have an even larger impact, more like the 26% above.
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Tens of millions of iPhone users around the globe won’t upgrade their phones until there’s a compact, thumb-friendly iPhone in the lineup again.
Nice speculation. How about some facts to back that up?[doublepost=1548614566][/doublepost]
As long as they still using intel chip....i wouldn’t say it is soon over.
The majority of people have no clue what kind of chip is in their iPhone.
4 weeks ago
Did this person ever got anything right?
Why yes. Yes, he did. Many many times.
4 weeks ago
A lot peeps are just being priced out of upgrading n holding onto there current phones longer
4 weeks ago
I'm not quite sure that I'll update this year, given the disaster that is the AUD an iPhone with decent storage and Max screen size will cost me near $2000AUD. I'm not sure I can justify that, unless they release a game changer. But I'm doubtful of that.
4 weeks ago
So Kuo! When is the interminable, inexplicable, inexcusable Mac Malaise going to end? When is Apple going to take AppleSeed beta-testing seriously? When is the modular Mac Pro going to show up? When will Bluetooth 5 capable gear show up? How about the multi-device wireless charger? AirPods 2? The rejuvenation of the ailing and antiquating Safari browser? Where is Apple Pencil-iPad-Mac drawing integration? Where is the transition to a 3D GUI? The return of upgradable Macs? The end of Apple's offensive dependence on China:Criminal Nation for manufacturing and sales? And so on.
4 weeks ago
Does he know something we don’t?
The answer to your question would be an emphatic yes he does know things you don't Thats the reason he is featured on MR every time he releases some news. He has a pretty solid track record. When I hear somebody named Maxi.ine making analysis, forecasts and predictions based upon the supply chain then maybe the tables will turn and you will have more info than Kuo.
4 weeks ago
Last few iterations of iPhones were already fast enough, adding 5% speed to it does not make much of a difference, no need to upgrade.
As for features, not much has been added last few years, with FaceId being an exception.
When for me only difference is the screen. I like Face ID for apps but it’s a pain for using Apple Pay compared to Touch ID
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