Ming-Chi Kuo Says 'Worst Soon Over' in Regards to Slowing iPhone Sales

Earlier this month, Apple lowered its revenue guidance for the first quarter of the 2019 fiscal year by up to $9 billion due to fewer iPhone upgrades than it anticipated, particularly in the Greater China region.

2018 iphone trio
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, believes the "worst" will be "soon over" in regards to the slowdown. In his latest research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo opined that the "share prices of Apple and most ‌iPhone‌ suppliers are generally priced in the negative."

Our report published on December 14, 2018, was the first to cut the estimation of 2019 iPhone shipments to 190mn units or less; the current market consensus on 2019 iPhone shipments (160–180mn units) is much lower than our estimation and we believe the share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative.

We maintain our forecast of 188–192mn units for 2019 iPhone shipments. We believe the downside risks of share prices for the Apple and iPhone supply chain are limited in the near term given that 2Q19 iPhone shipments will likely be better than the market consensus.

Kuo has slightly cut his estimate for ‌iPhone‌ shipments in the first quarter of 2019 from 38–42 million units to 36–38 million units because the "demand for new models in China and emerging markets is lower than expected," but he believes the decline will begin to ease starting in the second quarter.

Specifically, he estimates ‌iPhone‌ shipments in the second quarter of 2019 will reach 34–37 million units, slightly higher than the market consensus of 30–35 million units. That would still be a roughly 14 percent decline on a year-over-year basis, but far better than an estimated 29 percent drop in the first quarter.

As long as the US-China trade war does not worsen, Kuo expects the improvement to continue into the second half of 2019, with ‌iPhone‌ shipments likely to be generally flat compared to the second half of 2018 thanks to stronger replacement demand, trade-in programs, and market share gain in European markets.

Kuo maintains his forecast of 188–192 million ‌iPhone‌ shipments in 2019.

Related Forum: iPhone

Popular Stories

iOS 18

iOS 18.4 Coming Next Week With These New Features for Your iPhone

Friday February 14, 2025 6:18 am PST by
The first iOS 18.4 beta for iPhones should be just around the corner, and the update is expected to include many new features and changes. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman expects the iOS 18.4 beta to be released by next week. Below, we outline what to expect from iOS 18.4 so far. Apple Intelligence for Siri Siri is expected to get several enhancements powered by Apple Intelligence on iOS...
iPhone 17 Roundup Feature 2

iPhone Design to Change 'Significantly' This Year

Monday February 17, 2025 7:09 am PST by
Apple is set to "significantly change" the iPhone's design language later this year, according to a Weibo leaker. In a new post, the user known "Digital Chat Station" said that the iPhone's design is "starting to change significantly" this year. The "iPhone 17 Air" reportedly features a "horizontal, bar-shaped" design on the rear, likely referring to an elongated camera bump. On the other...
Apple Maps 2024

Apple Maps Might Start Showing Ads

Sunday February 16, 2025 7:22 am PST by
Apple is "exploring" the idea of showing search ads in the Apple Maps app, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Back in 2022, Gurman said software engineering was "already underway" to display ads in the Apple Maps app, but Apple did not move forward with the idea at the time. Today, he said Apple is "giving this notion more thought" again. This time around, he said Apple has yet to...
Tim Cook Apple Park

10+ Announcements Apple Could Have Rolled Into a February Event

Saturday February 15, 2025 8:00 am PST by
Apple appears to have enough upcoming product announcements to justify a full event this month, yet all signs indicate these reveals will be handled through a series of press releases instead. There are a multitude of rumors from reliable sources about specific announcements in the coming weeks, so here's everything that Apple could have feasibly included in a hypothetical February event: ...
apple launch feb 2025 alt

What to Expect From the 'Apple Launch' Next Week

Thursday February 13, 2025 11:48 am PST by
Apple has yet to announce any new devices this year, but that could change starting next week. Apple CEO Tim Cook today said to "get ready" for a "launch" on Wednesday, February 19. "Get ready to meet the newest member of the family," said Cook, in a social media post. The post includes an #AppleLaunch hashtag, along with a short video featuring an animated Apple logo inside of a circle....
iPhone 17 Pro Render Front Page Tech

iPhone 17 Pro With All-New Camera Bar Design Allegedly Revealed

Thursday February 13, 2025 5:49 pm PST by
Apple's next-generation iPhone 17 Pro will feature three rear cameras arranged in a familiar triangular layout, but the cameras will be housed in an all-new rectangular camera bar with rounded corners, according to YouTube channel Front Page Tech. iPhone 17 Pro camera design render created by Asher for Front Page Tech In a video uploaded today, Front Page Tech host Jon Prosser said the camera ...
Apple 2025 Thumb 1

Two of Apple's Oldest Products Are Finally Getting Updated This Year

Friday February 14, 2025 6:03 am PST by
Apple released the HomePod mini in November 2020, followed by the AirTag in May 2021, and both still remain first-generation products. Fortunately, rumors suggest that both the HomePod mini and the AirTag will finally be updated at some point this year. Below, we recap rumors about the HomePod mini 2 and AirTag 2. HomePod mini 2 In January 2025, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said Apple is ...
maxresdefault

The MacRumors Show: Apple Teases Its Next Major Product Launch

Friday February 14, 2025 9:38 am PST by
On this week's episode of The MacRumors Show, we discuss the imminent Apple product "launch" that is widely expected to be the fourth-generation iPhone SE. Subscribe to The MacRumors Show YouTube channel for more videos In a social media post on Thursday, Apple CEO Tim Cook teased an upcoming "launch" of some kind scheduled for Wednesday, February 19. "Get ready to meet the newest member of...

Top Rated Comments

MacFather Avatar
79 months ago
Deleted.
Score: 61 Votes (Like | Disagree)
magicschoolbus Avatar
79 months ago
Prices are to high. I have however been purchasing more Apple stuff but it’s sll last years tech. Apple Watch 3 LTE and 10.5 iPad. Just can’t afford the new stuff.... and I’ve got a pretty good Paying job. That extra 100 on nearly everything they have released has really made it much harder to purchase the latest and greatest.
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Baymowe335 Avatar
79 months ago
People don't like data, but the worst was in China. Other markets did quite well. In fact, the US, Canada, Netherlands, Korea, Italy, Germany, etc all hit records in Q12019.

Other companies have since reported weakness in China as well (Intel, Samsung). Apple was in front of this and is working on fixing the issues in China.

Apple is going to report record EPS for Q12019 and will execute in FY2019, as usual. I believe 160M iPhone sales in 2019 is totally ridiculous. They did 217M last year, so unit sales just are not going to drop that quickly. That would indicate a 26% decline in iPhone sales.

Remember, they are going to post $84B in sales in 90 days versus $88B last year, a 5% impcat. A significant drop in iPhone sales would have an even larger impact, more like the 26% above.
[doublepost=1548614404][/doublepost]
Tens of millions of iPhone users around the globe won’t upgrade their phones until there’s a compact, thumb-friendly iPhone in the lineup again.
Nice speculation. How about some facts to back that up?
[doublepost=1548614566][/doublepost]
As long as they still using intel chip....i wouldn’t say it is soon over.
The majority of people have no clue what kind of chip is in their iPhone.
Score: 14 Votes (Like | Disagree)
DotCom2 Avatar
79 months ago
IMHO, Apple needs to STOP being a Super High Premium Company and just be a High Premium Company!
Score: 14 Votes (Like | Disagree)
ryanwarsaw Avatar
79 months ago
Did this person ever got anything right?
Why yes. Yes, he did. Many many times.
Score: 13 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Apple Mac Daz Avatar
79 months ago
A lot peeps are just being priced out of upgrading n holding onto there current phones longer
Score: 12 Votes (Like | Disagree)