iPhone X's Already-Lowered Shipping Estimates in Early 2018 May Remain Too High

Multiple analyst reports last week pointed towards Apple reducing its shipment forecast for the iPhone X in Q1 2018 from 50 million units down to 30 million units. Today, analyst Nicolas Baratte of investment banking company CLSA followed up those reports with a note that stated the iPhone X's shipment forecasts "remain inflated," and that any Q1 2018 volume estimate over 35 million units "will prove too high" (via CNBC).

In a research note sent out to its clients today, CLSA said that Apple's iPhone X shipment numbers are "unlikely to improve" upon the company's Q4 2017 sales. Similar to the reports shared last week, the reasoning behind the analyst's prediction is the belief that those who wanted an iPhone X immediately -- and were accepting of the high price tag -- have already received one. Average consumers looking at the iPhone X might not see the value in the $1,000 smartphone and opt to purchase another model in early 2018.


CLSA tracked iPhone X shipment volumes at 30 to 35 million in Q4 2017, and noted that it is "very skeptical that volumes will increase" in early 2018.
"We maintain that 2017 fourth-quarter iPhone X volumes were at 30 to 35 million and we are very skeptical that volumes will increase in the first quarter of 2018," CLSA analyst Nicolas Baratte wrote in an note Tuesday. "This does not reconcile with the expectation of pent-up demand or push-out to the first quarter of 2018 in our opinion: consumers who wanted to get an iPhone X in December 2017 already have it."
Although the 30 to 35 million range has become a popular estimate for iPhone X shipment forecasts in Q1 2018, other analysts have predicted higher volumes for the smartphone. Loop Capital increased iPhone X shipment numbers to between 40 and 45 million units in Q1 2018, while analysts at Jefferies forecast about 40 million iPhone X sales for the quarter.

CLSA also echoed previous rumors for the iPhone X in 2018, predicting a "lower priced X-gen option," meaning that the firm believes Apple will lower the price of the current iPhone X "if volume proves problematic." CLSA also expects to see an iPhone X Plus of some kind in 2018, which follows rumors that began last August and said that Apple could launch an iPhone with a 6.4-inch OLED display in 2018. Ming-Chi Kuo furthered those reports last November by laying out his own 2018 iPhone lineup prediction: 5.8-inch and 6.5-inch iPhones with OLED displays, and a 6.1-inch iPhone with an LCD display.


Top Rated Comments

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11 months ago
Lowering Already-Lowered Shipping Estimate for iPhone X?

Courage. Not.

I am a huge iPhone and Apple fan, but I expect and really hope they finally get a warning for their more and more ridiculous price policy.
Rating: 60 Votes
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11 months ago
Maybe...just maybe they priced the X to high? Just a wild guess
Rating: 36 Votes
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11 months ago
Lower the price.
Rating: 32 Votes
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11 months ago
Of course they’re over inflated.

Whilst the phone has many advancements, it just isn’t £1000 worth of phone. Face ID, whilst a technological marvel, isn’t worth that much to me.

I have a 6S plus, and it isn’t worth almost £750 to get maybe two extra features.

I can have an S8, which does almost 99% of what the iPhone X does for the average user for almost half the price.

And also the lengths Apple went to have portrait mode on the front and rear cameras, google did better with just the software alone, which maybe hints at the fact the energy and time wasted on this Face ID and sensor array is unnecessary.
Rating: 29 Votes
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11 months ago
Pixel 2 has a better camera
Galaxy has a better screen

In 2017 there is competition
Rating: 20 Votes
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11 months ago
I wonder if some folks like myself are contributing to this phenomenon...

Normally I upgrade my wife's and my iPhones every two years ...5s, 6s. This year was our year to upgrade. However, for the first time in quite a while I wasn't interested at all in either the newest (X) or the iterative (8) because of:

1) cost
2) useless/janky/missing features (IMO, not here to debate features)
3) highly questionable/vexing design compromises (IMO, not here to debate design choices)
4) and most importantly, our 6s' seem to be getting the job done just fine
Rating: 19 Votes
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11 months ago

Brain. Washed.


Why is that the default for folks that if someone loves iPhone X they must be brainwashed?
[doublepost=1514910843][/doublepost]I personally hope they don’t lower the price on iPhone X or the next on me. There are many options for folks under 999 from Apple.

Not everything should be priced the same and if Samsung can charge 950 for a device that has a pen and the same type of camera that iPhone 7 Plus has than so can Apple.
[doublepost=1514911043][/doublepost]

People are really paying for the logo if anything. The only two things impressive about the X are the screen and processor. FaceID is more gimmicky because it isn’t worth spending $200-300 more for it.


You don’t speak for me or anyone else and it’s rude to think you do. I paid for the device because I liked the enhancements.

Even if someone paid for it just because of the “brand” what business is it of yours?

I find your post very ballsy for you to attempt to make judgements about someone’s purchase.

Worry about how you spend your own money.
Rating: 19 Votes
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11 months ago

Put the ID-touch back and get rid of the notch.
Case closed.


No thanks
[doublepost=1514912191][/doublepost]

Best iPhone under Steve Jobs started at $599. Now, under Tim Cook it is $999. A 67% price increase!!!


Best Ford under Henry Ford $360
Best Ford under William Ford Jr. $453,750

126,041% price increase!!!!
Rating: 17 Votes
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11 months ago
Oh well

I bought the 256GB X on day 1 and don’t regret it. Amazing phone.

It’s not for everyone and there are other iPhones priced lower for people who don’t wonna spend so much
Rating: 16 Votes
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11 months ago
I have no idea why any of you actually think this analyst's "prediction" is correct. 90% of the analysts that follow Apple are morons - Never in doubt but frequently wrong! I've been at this for over 25 years. There are a handful that get it right and the rest are stabbing in the dark causing havoc like this one. I've seen this a hundred times. Apple shifts production from one supplier to another and the analysts look no further than one side of the equation and generally the sales blow the roof off all their stupid predictions. Ignore the noise. P.S. Love the X. Best iPhone I've ever had.
P.S. Analysts are like the "photographers" that work in the camera store...
Rating: 15 Votes
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