Ming-Chi Kuo Agrees iPhone 8 Will Launch in September With 'Severe' Shortages Due to Delayed Production

As more alleged design schematics and dummy models of the "iPhone 8" leak online, one of the biggest questions remains the smartphone's actual launch date. Although some industry sources believe the tenth-anniversary iPhone will still launch in September -- perhaps in very short supply -- Japanese site Mac Otakara earlier this year suggested the OLED iPhone 8 would launch "very much" behind the the LCD models.

Today, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has published a report supporting the theory that Apple will debut the OLED iPhone in September, but the device will face "severe supply shortages" for some time. Kuo believes that production ramp-up on the OLED iPhone model won't begin until as late as October-November, two months later than previous ramp-ups in August-September. Similar delayed production rumors have been circulated by Bloomberg, analysts from Barclays, and Brian White.

iphone8conceptthadeubrandao
Kuo believes that this delay "won't undermine actual demand," as long as the iPhone 8 lives up to the hype, but the heaviest demand might be pushed back until as far as the first quarter of 2018, when the bulk of users could get their hands on the device according to Kuo.

Production ramp up of OLED iPhone could be delayed to October-November (previously estimated to be August-September, as in previous years). That said, if new features, such as 3D sensing, can provide good user experience, a temporary supply shortfall won’t undermine actual demand, which may be deferred to 1H18. In that case, potential contribution starting late-2Q17 from OLED iPhone could be partially delayed by 3-6 months for related suppliers.

This delayed production ramp-up is listed by Kuo as a "potential downside risk to shipments" of all three iPhone models believed to launch this year, with a second risk coming from Apple's competitors. Samsung, Huawei, OPPO, Vivo, and Xiaomi are all gearing up to launch "high-end full-screen smartphones" in 2017, and all could have an impact specifically on the LCD models of the 2017 iPhone, according to Kuo, because those models "do not have full-screen form factors."

Because of these potential risks affecting the iPhone's shipments this year, Kuo adjusted shipping estimates for the device accordingly. The analyst believes that the "worst case scenario" could see iPhone shipments decrease by 15 to 20 percent and result in 80 to 90 million units shipped, versus a previous estimate of 100-110 million units (a 60:40 weighting is placed for the OLED and LCD iPhone models). Ultimately, Kuo said that, "We see a higher probability of the worst case scenario coming to pass."

Production delays in this year's OLED iPhone are again sourced from the device's intricate manufacturing processes, thanks to numerous upgrades including its customized OLED panel, new 10-nanometer A11 processor, all-new 3D Touch module, substrate-like printed circuit board, and 3D sensing. Despite these production difficulties, Kuo said that the iPhone 8's announcement and launch time of the new iPhones will remain similar to previous years, suggesting the usual September iPhone event from Apple.

While we believe the announcement and launch time of the new iPhones will be similar to previous ones, production ramp up of OLED iPhone could be delayed to as late as October-November compared to the usual ramp up period of August-September, due to increased production difficulty. In other words, severe supply shortages may persist for a while after the new models are launched, capping total shipments of new iPhones in 2H17.

Kuo also sees a potential loss of appeal by high-end users on the LCD versions of the new iPhone models, due to their lack of a full-screen design, contributing to Apple's potentially weak shipping momentum for the iPhone later this year in addition to the worst case scenario for the OLED model.

Related Forum: iPhone

Top Rated Comments

Sunny1990 Avatar
90 months ago
i am in no hurry, i am fully satisfied with my iPhone 7 Plus :)


Attachment Image
Score: 27 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Chupa Chupa Avatar
90 months ago
It's so strange how Steve Jobs stopped announcing products at MacWorld because he said it made no sense for Apple to rush products around someone else's schedule. Thus began the era of the Apple Special Event where Apple only announced product when it was presumably ready to announce and ship product.

Maybe TC didn't get that memo. Time after time he announces product that Apple can't ship in quantity a timely manner after announcing it. Why does Apple do this when they control the announcement schedule? All it does is frustrate customers and kill impulsive purchases. Of late Apple's product announcement are really more like pre-announcements. Kinda reminds of the boy who cried wolf.
Score: 25 Votes (Like | Disagree)
NachoGrande Avatar
90 months ago
i am in no hurry, loving my iPhone 7 Plus
But your camera is not vertical... That's so last year...
Score: 25 Votes (Like | Disagree)
EvilEvil Avatar
90 months ago
Same marketing BS different year.
Score: 22 Votes (Like | Disagree)
cardfan Avatar
90 months ago
You already know it'll be backordered in less than 5mins. Nothing to see here.
Score: 18 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Sandstorm Avatar
90 months ago
Either way I think I'll skip this one. First - I'm pretty satisfied with my iPhone 7 Plus, but second - I don't want 1st generation issues (we can all recall plenty of problems with almost every single completely new Apple product).
Score: 14 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

iPhone 16 Camera Lozenge 2 Perspective Gray

Five Key Upgrades Coming to iPhone 16

Friday March 15, 2024 1:45 pm PDT by
The iPhone is Apple's top-selling product, and it gets an update every year. In 2024, we're expecting the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro lineup, with an arguably more interesting feature set than we got with the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Capture Button All four iPhone 16 models are set to get a whole new button, which will be...
When To Expect New iPads Feature 1

Apple to Announce New iPads on March 26, Rumors Claim

Monday March 18, 2024 4:02 am PDT by
Apple is widely expected to release new iPad Air and OLED iPad Pro models in the next few weeks. According to new rumors coming out of Asia, the company will announce its new iPads on Tuesday, March 26. Chinese leaker Instant Digital on Weibo this morning 日发布%23">claimed that the date will see some sort of announcement from Apple related to new iPads, but stopped short of calling it an...
airpods 3 orange

Two New AirPods 4 Models Expected to Launch in September or October

Sunday March 17, 2024 7:56 am PDT by
Apple suppliers will begin production of two new fourth-generation AirPods models in May, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Based on this production timeframe, he expects the headphones to be released in September or October. Gurman expects both fourth-generation AirPods models to feature a new design with better fit, improved sound quality, and an updated charging case with a USB-C...
iphone se 4 modified flag edges

iPhone SE 4 Expected to Depreciate Heavily

Tuesday March 12, 2024 9:04 am PDT by
Resale value trends suggest the iPhone SE 4 may not hold its value as well as Apple's flagship models, according to SellCell. According to the report, Apple's iPhone SE models have historically depreciated much more rapidly than the company's more premium offerings. The third-generation iPhone SE, which launched in March 2022, experienced a significant drop in resale value, losing 42.6%...
General iOS 17 Feature Orange Purple

iOS 17.4.1 Update for iPhone is Imminent

Monday March 18, 2024 5:27 am PDT by
iOS 17.4.1 and iPadOS 17.4.1 should be released within the next few days, with a build number of 21E235, according to a source with a proven track record. MacRumors previously reported that Apple was internally testing iOS 17.4.1. As a minor update for the iPhone, it will likely address software bugs and/or security vulnerabilities. It is unclear if the update will include any other changes. ...
M3 iPad Feature 3

New iPads Likely to Begin Shipping in April

Monday March 18, 2024 9:52 am PDT by
Apple's new iPad Pro models with OLED displays will likely begin shipping to customers in April, according to information shared today by Ross Young, CEO of display industry research firm Display Supply Chain Consultants. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman also said the new iPad Pro models might not ship until "deeper" into April in his Power On newsletter on Sunday:I've repeatedly said that new...
iOS 17 Passkey With Apple ACCOUNT Feature

'Apple ID' Expected to Change to 'Apple Account' Starting With iOS 18

Sunday March 17, 2024 7:13 am PDT by
MacRumors was first to report that Apple was planning to rebrand "Apple ID" to "Apple Account" across its software platforms and websites like iCloud.com as early as this year, and now Bloomberg's Mark Gurman has corroborated this change. A mockup of the new Apple Account branding In his Power On newsletter today, Gurman said the new "Apple Account" branding will start to be used later this...