Analysts Increasing Estimates Ahead of Apple Earnings Release

With Apple set to report earnings for the third fiscal quarter and second calendar quarter of 2011 next Tuesday, July 19th, Wall Street analysts are beginning to line up their final predictions for Apple's performance. As noted by Barron's, a pair of analysts this morning issued new reports that show last-minute bumps in their estimates for the quarter.

Citigroup's Richard Gardner is now pegging quarterly iPhone shipments at 18 million units, an increase of 2 million units over his previous estimate and now above the Wall Street consensus in the range of 16.5-17 million units. Results at that level would come in just below the record 18.6 million iPhones shipped in the previous quarter and would be a very strong performance given the fact that many consumers are likely holding out for the next-generation iPhone.

Gardner places his iPad estimate at 8 million units, slightly above Wall Street consensus and well ahead of Apple's 4.69 million units shipped in the previous quarter as the company struggled to meet demand as it shifted production from the original iPad to the iPad 2. Overall, Gardner sees Apple's earnings per share now coming in at a healthy $6.34 for the quarter, nearly matching last quarter's strong performance.

In a separate report, UBS analyst Maynard Um similarly tweaked his estimates, pushing his iPad shipment figure up by 200,000 to 7.9 million while holding steady at a prediction of 18.35 million iPhone units. Um is looking for earnings per share of $5.88 and suggests that evidence of Apple's patent settlement with Nokia may appear in the financial results.

As always, analyst estimates are to be taken with a grain of salt, and professional analysts are known to consistently underestimate Apple's performance, suggesting that the company may indeed once again post very strong numbers. And with even the professional analysts increasing their estimates down the homestretch toward the earnings release, Apple appears to once again be in solid position.

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112 months ago
Sad to see Apple getting pummled by the competitors.... especially in the Tablet space... sad! :p

What's even sadder is a sold all my Apple stock at $150 and bought worthless solar stock that has done nothing by loose value. BFM! (B=Big, M=Mistake and F... well, you fill in the blank).
Rating: 3 Votes
112 months ago
Shares

I would have really liked to have bought APPL shares during the year 2000.
Rating: 3 Votes
112 months ago

The analysts seem to increase there estimates every time and Apple still beat the estimates. Maybe they should take a punt on a really high figure.


The way the market works is the price of the stock goes up if it beats the estimates and down if the numbers are lower - not always true but that is the game in general because current prices reflect the so-called analysts estimates. It is a game they have played for a very long time. Just like 'buy the rumor and sell the news'
Rating: 2 Votes
112 months ago
The analysts seem to increase there estimates every time and Apple still beat the estimates. Maybe they should take a punt on a really high figure.
Rating: 2 Votes
112 months ago
You say Fanboy, I say smart consumer. Regardless of if the product has a practical function or is economical, Apple products will sell because of the experience of owning it. To those with the means to own the products, the experience is invaluable. Why settle for anything less than the best? There are certain things that people won't skimp out on, even during tough economic times - and experiences such as these are reason enough to continue to buy the product. Apple only has a market share of about 4-5%? Imagine what would happen if that number doubled, tripled, quadrupled. I see Apple being the first trillion dollar company within 4 years, and I'm betting 60% of my portfolio on that belief. Then again, thats are just my 2 cents.
Rating: 1 Votes
112 months ago
What a job. Making guesses and getting paid for it.
Rating: 1 Votes
112 months ago

The iPad sells iPhones. Think of it as a loss leader that makes a direct profit.


It isn't a "loss leader." It's not like they actually lose money selling it. They just don't make as much as with the iPhone, is all.
Rating: 1 Votes
112 months ago
I bet there's record iPad sales.
Rating: 1 Votes
112 months ago
Why do they bother estimating, Apple is doing good.
Rating: 1 Votes
112 months ago

No, the margins on the iPad are pretty slender (for Apple's standards).

Their fattest margins are on the iPhone. That's what has driven their profitability. But don't blindly listen to me. Go read their SEC filings and review the port-mortems from the analyst conference calls.


The iPad sells iPhones. Think of it as a loss leader that makes a direct profit.
Rating: 0 Votes

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