Shipments of mmWave 5G iPhones Could Be Much Weaker Than Expected This Year

The latest shipment estimates for Apple's upcoming mmWave-enabled 5G iPhones are several million units lower than previously expected, which is intensifying competition among suppliers of AiP substrates, reports DigiTimes.

iPhone 12 5G New 1

Shipments of mmWave-enabled 5G iPhones slated for launch later this year are estimated to reach only 15-20 million units in 2020 compared to a previous supply chain estimate of 30-40 million units, intensifying competition among Apple's suppliers of FC-AiP substrates for the new phones, according to industry sources.

Apple is believed to be designing its own antenna-in-package or "AiP" module for mmWave iPhones, which use a set of 5G frequencies that promise ultra-fast speeds at short distances, making it best suited for dense urban areas. By contrast, sub-6GHz 5G is generally slower than mmWave, but the signals travel further, better serving suburban and rural areas.

According to DigiTimes, Apple's AIP package is more cost-effective than previous designs, but some analysts believe that models with support for ultra-fast mmWave technology will likely launch after sub-6GHz models due to production challenges and the global health crisis. To counter these challenges, Apple has diversified its supply chain for the modules to minimize risk.

The upcoming mmWave 5G iPhones will adopt more cost-effective FC-AiP process, with ASE Technology to package AiP modules, the sources said. But Apple reportedly has finalized three suppliers of BT-based FC-AiP substrates, including one based in Taiwan and two in South Korea, and they will together supply 30-50 million substrates, the sources said, adding one iPhone will require 2-3 AiP modules.

Prior to the global health crisis, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said Apple was still on track to release both sub-6GHz and sub-6GHz-plus-mmWave "iPhone 12" models simultaneously in the second half of 2020, with shipments beginning in the late third quarter or early fourth quarter.

Kuo has not indicated whether those plans have since changed, but other analysts have said they believe the mmWave iPhones may not arrive this year because Apple's custom antenna-in-package is proving to be more of a battery drain than the company would like.

Kuo has said 5G iPhone models with mmWave would be available in five markets, including the United States, Canada, Japan, Korea, and the United Kingdom. He also believes Apple may disable 5G functionality in countries that do not offer 5G service or have a shallow 5G penetration rate to reduce production costs.

Related Roundup: iPhone 12
Related Forum: iPhone

Top Rated Comments

BvizioN Avatar
36 months ago

Apple was sued in Australia (and other countries) as a result of advertising that it has 4G but 4G was in its infancy at that time
It is true, but it is mind-boggling that people do get away with such a stupid lawsuit. It is like people buying Tesla electric cars to use them in areas where the charging infrastructure is not in place and suing Tesla for advertising cars as electric! Nothing short of stupidity!!
Score: 15 Votes (Like | Disagree)
BvizioN Avatar
36 months ago

I recently traded for an S20+, and wouldn't go back.
"Recently" is the keyword here. Give it a few months. or a year and see how you feel about it.
Score: 7 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Brian Y Avatar
36 months ago

I don't see this iPhone being a hit. I think people are getting iPhone fatigue. The enthusiast who knows what 120Hz is or what LiDar is (I don't) will want it, but the average guy who doesn't know what these features are won't care.

We're in the age of corona, riots, and Trump. Long lines that wrap the corner block and the untempered excitement people once had for the latest and greatest iPhone seems so yesterday...
I mean, they'll still sell them by the millions, but quite a few people are going the same way I did - having owned pretty much every iPhone since the original launch day back in 2007, I recently traded for an S20+, and wouldn't go back.

It'll be interesting to see how they handle the 5G launch. They buggered up 4G in quite a few places - e.g. launching "4G" models in Aus with no 4G network, launching the 4G iPhone 5 in the UK with support for only 1 4G network.

I'm assuming they'll go the way other manufacturers have, having 4G, 5G sub-6 and 5G mmwave models, depending on the market. There's zero point putting mmwave devices out in the UK at the moment, for example, since no network currently has plans (or spectrum) to support it. Heck, outside of Italy, I don't think any country in Europe has even allcated mmwave spectrum yet.

That's pretty much what Samsung do. My UK purchased S20+ 5G doesn't support mmwave - do I really care? Nope. By the time mmwave is actually in use in the UK I doubt i'll still have it. IMO, outside of densely populated cities, mmwave isn't really needed anyway. On sub-6, I've managed to hit 350mbps indoors on EE, and consistently get speeds well over 100mbps. That's absolutely plenty for a mobile phone IMO.
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
UltimaKilo Avatar
36 months ago
5G support seems like a waste in 2020. They should have pushed back that feature to fall 2021 models when 5G is better deployed (and even then, it likely won’t be until 2022 that its widely available).
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
IIGS User Avatar
36 months ago
I suspect I'll upgrade when the new phone comes out.

The 5G is a selling point for me, but the big difference is in the design. The rounded phones are hard for me to keep hold of for one. Second, I just prefer the squared off design.

A new phone every few years is how I "treat" myself, so this is enough for me to make a change from my Xr.

Plus I can sell the Xr and still get a decent amount of money for it.
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Reason077 Avatar
36 months ago

5G to me seems a bit like curved TV's/3DTV. Pushing the edge of what consumers actually want. They will really need to solve the coverage issue.
5G coverage for me (UK, 3.6Ghz band) is actually much better than expected. Having tried 2 different networks (Three and Vodafone), Three's coverage map shows no 5G at my location, and Vodafone's shows the weakest band of signal. But in reality I actually get 5/5 5G signal strength and excellent, reliable download speeds on both, indoors. It probably helps that I'm on the 5th floor, but even on the street outside at ground level it's still 5/5.

This is with a Huawei mobile MiFi 5G router (E6878).

Vodafone seems to now have excellent 5G coverage throughout East London, pretty much wherever I go. Not quite so much in Central London yet, though, but it falls back seamlessly to 4G of course.
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

iOS 17 on Phone Feature

Gurman: iOS 17 to Provide Several 'Most Requested Features'

Sunday March 26, 2023 6:05 am PDT by
Apple changed the strategy for iOS 17 later in its development process to add several new features, suggesting that the update may be more significant than previously thought, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reports. In January, Gurman said that iOS 17 could be a less significant update than iPhone updates in previous years due to the company's intense focus on its long-awaited mixed-reality...
iOS 16

iOS 16.4 Will Add These 8 New Features to Your iPhone

Sunday March 26, 2023 8:06 am PDT by
Following nearly six weeks of beta testing, iOS 16.4 is expected to be released to the public as soon as this week. The software update includes a handful of new features and changes for the iPhone 8 and newer. To install an iOS update, open the Settings app on the iPhone, tap General → Software Update, and follow the on-screen instructions. Below, we have recapped eight new features and...
apple mixed reality headset concept by david lewis and marcus kane

Some Apple Employees Seriously Concerned About Mixed-Reality Headset as Announcement Draws Closer

Sunday March 26, 2023 8:25 am PDT by
Some Apple employees are concerned about the usefulness and price point of the company's upcoming mixed-reality headset, The New York Times reports. Apple headset concept by David Lewis and Marcus Kane Initial enthusiasm around the device at the company has apparently become skepticism, according to eight current and former Apple employees speaking to The New York Times. The change of tone...
iOS 16

Apple Releases iOS 16.4 With New Emoji, Safari Web Push Notifications, Beta Changes, Voice Isolation for Calls and More

Monday March 27, 2023 10:03 am PDT by
Apple today released iOS 16.4, the fourth major update to the iOS 16 operating system that initially came out last September. iOS 16.4 comes two months after the launch of iOS 16.3, an update that added Security Keys for Apple ID. iOS 16‌.4 and iPadOS 16.4 can be downloaded on eligible iPhones and iPads over-the-air by going to Settings > General > Software Update. It can take a few minutes...
Steve Jobs Theater dusk

Apple Reportedly Demoed Mixed-Reality Headset to Executives in the Steve Jobs Theater Last Week

Sunday March 26, 2023 5:53 am PDT by
Apple showcased its mixed-reality headset to the company's top 100 executives in the Steve Jobs Theater last week, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. In the latest edition of his "Power On" newsletter, Gurman explained that the "momentous gathering" is a "key milestone" ahead of the headset's public announcement planned for June. The event was intended to rally Apple's top members of...
top stories 25mar2023

Top Stories: iPhone 15 Pro Design Leak, iOS 16.4 Coming Soon, and More

Saturday March 25, 2023 6:00 am PDT by
We're still almost six months away from the official unveiling of the iPhone 15 lineup, but it seems like every day we're learning more about what to expect from the next-generation models. Notably, this week gave us our clearest look yet at what appear to be some changes for the volume and mute control hardware. iOS 16.4 and associated releases are also right around the corner with some new ...
apple tv 4k red image

Apple Releases tvOS 16.4 for Apple TV 4K and Apple TV HD

Monday March 27, 2023 10:00 am PDT by
Apple today released tvOS 16.4, the fourth major point update to the tvOS 16 operating system that came out last September. Available for the Apple TV 4K and Apple TV HD, tvOS 16.4 comes two months following the release of tvOS 16.3. The tvOS 16.4 update can be downloaded over the air through the Settings app on the ‌‌‌‌Apple TV‌‌‌‌ by going to System > Software Update....