Apple Pay Could Account for 10 Percent of Global Card Transactions by 2025 and Even Rival PayPal

Apple Pay could account for 10 percent of global card transactions by 2025 and pose a serious challenge to rivals like PayPal, according to recent trend data compiled by research firm Bernstein.

apple pay
Drawing from the data, Quartz reports that ‌Apple Pay‌ currently accounts for about 5 percent of global transactions. If that growth trend continues, it may well become a long-term competitive threat to PayPal – and could even end up competing with Visa and Mastercard if it chose to set up its own payments network much further down the line.

Apple Pay probably won't pose a challenge to the card giants anytime soon. While the tech company could, in theory, create its own network that runs outside the card systems, Bernstein argues that Apple still needs the card networks, which are ubiquitous and trusted. Visa and MasterCard, meanwhile, are used to dealing with partners (traditionally large card-issuing banks) with the kind of scale that even Apple Pay could muster.

The same may not be true for other wallets. "Apple Pay is indeed one of the long-term competitive threats to PayPal," Bernstein analysts wrote. For now, PayPal has a commanding lead in the world of online checkouts, and also benefits from network effects that have been building up since the turn of the century. But Apple and PayPal could end up competing for the same turf in the coming years.

Apple's advantage over other digital payments includes its pre-installed Wallet app for iPhone and its tight control over the NFC technology contained within the device that can process contactless payments.

However, that tight control could cause headaches for Apple if it is perceived as a way to block competition. Apple argues that its policies are strictly for security purposes, but it has already run into difficulties in Australia, where big banks want access to the iPhone's NFC function for a competitive level playing field.

The company has also faced a backlash in in Germany, where a parliamentary committee recently passed an amendment to an anti-money laundering law that could force Apple to open up the NFC chip in iPhones to competing mobile payment providers.

In November 2019, the European Union's competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager acknowledged that her department has received "many concerns" over ‌Apple Pay‌ and potential anticompetitive issues.

Related Roundup: Apple Pay

Popular Stories

iPhone 17 Pro in Hand Feature Lowgo

iPhone 17 Pro Coming Soon With These 14 New Features

Friday July 4, 2025 1:05 pm PDT by
Apple's next-generation iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max are just over two months away, and there are plenty of rumors about the devices. Below, we recap key changes rumored for the iPhone 17 Pro models. Latest Rumors These rumors surfaced in June and July:Apple logo repositioned: Apple's logo may have a lower position on the back of the iPhone 17 Pro models, compared to previous...
iphone 16 pro models 1

Here's How the iPhone 17 Pro Max Will Compare to the iPhone 17 Pro

Saturday July 5, 2025 1:00 pm PDT by
Apple should unveil the iPhone 17 series in September, and there might be one bigger difference between the Pro and Pro Max models this year. As always, the Pro Max model will be larger than the Pro model:iPhone 17 Pro: 6.3-inch display iPhone 17 Pro Max: 6.9-inch displayGiven the Pro Max is physically larger than the Pro, it has more internal space, allowing for a larger battery and...
airpods pro 2

AirPods Pro 3 to Help Maintain Apple's Place in Earbud Market Amid Increasing Low-Cost Competition

Thursday July 3, 2025 7:25 am PDT by
Apple's position as the dominant force in the global true wireless stereo (TWS) earbud market is expected to continue through 2025, according to Counterpoint Research. The forecast outlines a 3% year-over-year increase in global TWS unit shipments for 2025, signaling a transition from rapid growth to a more mature phase for the category. While Apple is set to remain the leading brand by...
iPhone 17 Pro in Hand Feature Lowgo

iPhone 17 Pro Max Battery Capacity Leaked

Thursday July 3, 2025 5:40 am PDT by
The iPhone 17 Pro Max will feature the biggest ever battery in an iPhone, according to the Weibo leaker known as "Instant Digital." In a new post, the leaker listed the battery capacities of the iPhone 11 Pro Max through to the iPhone 16 Pro Max, and added that the iPhone 17 Pro Max will feature a battery capacity of 5,000mAh: iPhone 11 Pro Max: 3,969mAh iPhone 12 Pro Max: 3,687mAh...
iPhone Car Key Kia

Here's Which Vehicles Offer iPhone Car Keys

Sunday July 6, 2025 3:03 pm PDT by
In 2020, Apple added a digital car key feature to its Wallet app, allowing users to lock, unlock, and start a compatible vehicle with an iPhone or Apple Watch. The feature is currently offered by select automakers, including Audi, BMW, Hyundai, Kia, Genesis, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, and a handful of others, and it is set to expand further. Apple has a web page with a list of vehicle models that ...
imac video apple feature

Apple Launching These 15+ Products Later This Year

Sunday July 6, 2025 8:05 am PDT by
The calendar has turned to July, meaning that 2025 is now more than half over. And while the summer months are often quiet for Apple, the company still has more than a dozen products coming later this year, according to rumors. Below, we have outlined at least 15 new Apple products that are expected to launch later this year, along with key rumored features for each. iPhone 17 Series iPho...
Apple Watch Ultra Night Mode Screen

Apple Watch Ultra 3 Launching Later This Year With Two Key Upgrades

Wednesday July 2, 2025 1:13 pm PDT by
The long wait for an Apple Watch Ultra 3 appears to be nearly over, and it is rumored to feature both satellite connectivity and 5G support. Apple Watch Ultra's existing Night Mode In his latest Power On newsletter, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said that the Apple Watch Ultra 3 is on track to launch this year with "significant" new features, including satellite connectivity, which would let you...
Prime Day 25 Feature Warm Triad

The Best Early Prime Day Deals on Apple Products

Saturday July 5, 2025 7:22 am PDT by
Amazon is soon to be back with its annual summertime Prime Day event, lasting for four days from July 8-11, the longest Prime Day yet. As it does every year, Prime Day offers shoppers a huge selection of deals across Amazon's storefront, and there are already many deals you can get on sale ahead of the event. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with Amazon. When you click a link and make a ...

Top Rated Comments

djcerla Avatar
71 months ago
100 percent of my credit card transactions are now done via Apple Pay on my Watch. Still have physical cards in my (increasingly small) ('https://bellroy.com/products/card-pocket/default/racing_green') wallet "just in case" but they are unused since long, long time.

Add to that things that were previously paid with coins (parking tickets, serving machines).

A very welcome change.
Score: 10 Votes (Like | Disagree)
gnasher729 Avatar
71 months ago
I wonder if there are any numbers out about fraud with Apple Pay. Since the merchant or rogue employees don't have any access to your actual card, fraud numbers should be reduced.
Score: 7 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Classie Avatar
71 months ago
I understand the concern about monopolization and locking out competitors and banks. But I don’t care. There are no other company/government I want to give this responsibility to - Apples track record speaks for it self.
Score: 7 Votes (Like | Disagree)
alpi123 Avatar
71 months ago
I wish you didn't need to be in the US to send or receive money from friends.
Apple needs to create a real PayPal competitor, because they su.. a...
Score: 6 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Atlantico Avatar
71 months ago
Paypal blows, so great news. Maybe Apple can force Paypal to shape up. Competition is good.
Score: 6 Votes (Like | Disagree)
gnasher729 Avatar
71 months ago

I use my Apple Card on a daily basis..

Apple continues to add merchants that give 3% cash back - Uber, Walgreens, etc.

If Apple Card continues to be a success then they definitely can get to 10% of all transactions by 2025
This article isn't about Apple Card. It is about Apple Pay (where you use your iPhone or Apple Watch to pay with your Visa card).
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)