Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X Supercycle Won't Really Happen Until 2018

For months, many Wall Street analysts have predicted the iPhone X will drive a significant number of existing iPhone users to upgrade. The latest word from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, suggests the so-called "supercycle" won't truly gain momentum until 2018 due to multiple factors.

iphone x dual lens camera
Namely, Kuo said the TrueDepth camera system's reported production issues will be "significantly addressed" in 2018. He also believes new iPhone models launched in 2018 will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017, with next year's lineup likely to retain many of the iPhone X's appealing features.

Here's the excerpt from Kuo's research note obtained by MacRumors today:

The market generally refers to 2017 as the super cycle of the iPhone, but we think the real super cycle will be in 2018 for the following reasons: (1) TrueDepth Camera's production issues will be significantly addressed in 2018F; (2) new models launched in 2018F will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017; and (3) the product mix, specifications and designs of new iPhone models from 2018F will be more competitive. We estimate that for 2017, iPhone shipments will come in at 210-220mn units, which should grow to be 245-255mn units in 2018.

Kuo estimated that once iPhone X's production issues are solved in the fourth quarter of this year, shipments will "pick up strongly" in the first half of 2018.

Related Forum: iPhone

Popular Stories

iOS 18 CarPlay Feature

iOS 18 Adds These 5 New Features to CarPlay

Thursday June 13, 2024 7:44 am PDT by
Apple did not mention CarPlay during its WWDC keynote this week, but iOS 18 includes a handful of new features for the in-car software. Overall, there is not a whole lot new for CarPlay on iOS 18, with changes seemingly limited to the Messages and Settings apps so far. Below, we recap everything new for CarPlay on iOS 18. New for CarPlay on iOS 18 1. Contact Photos in Messages App...
apple watch series 9 display

Kuo: Apple Watch Series 10 to Get Larger Screen and Thinner Design

Monday June 17, 2024 1:20 am PDT by
This year's Apple Watch Series 10 will be thinner and come in larger screen sizes than previous models, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. In his latest industry note -10-and-98075c44ce92">shared on Medium, Kuo said the screen size options on the next-generation Apple Watch will increase from 41mm to 45mm, and from 45mm to 49mm, while being encased in a thinner design. For reference,...
iPod Nano vs iPod Pro Ad Feature 1

Apple Developing Thinner MacBook Pro, Apple Watch, and iPhone

Monday June 17, 2024 2:22 am PDT by
Apple intends to slim down the MacBook Pro, Apple Watch, and iPhone, with the new ultra-thin M4 iPad Pro a sign of the company's new design trajectory, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. When the M4 iPad Pro was unveiled last month, Apple touted it as the company's thinnest product ever, and even compared it to the 2012 iPod nano to emphasize its slim dimensions. Writing in the latest ...
iOS 18 Siri Integrated Feature

You Can Give Siri a New Name With iOS 18's Vocal Shortcuts

Friday June 14, 2024 4:33 pm PDT by
Apple in iOS 18 added a Vocal Shortcuts accessibility feature, and now that iOS 18 is available in a beta capacity, users have figured out that this option can be used to give Siri a new wake word. With Vocal Shortcuts, you can assign a custom phrase that Siri can understand to launch shortcuts and complete "complex tasks," and one of the shortcuts you can set up is an alternative for "Hey...
iOS 18 Wallet Feature

Here's What's New in Apple Wallet on iOS 18 for Event Tickets and More

Friday June 14, 2024 7:32 am PDT by
iOS 18 includes a handful of enhancements to the Wallet app on the iPhone, with new features for Apple Pay, Apple Cash, event tickets, and more. Below, we outline everything new for the Wallet app on iOS 18, based on information from Apple's press release and a WWDC 2024 coding session. Redesigned Event Tickets Event tickets have an all-new design in the Wallet app on iOS 18, complete...

Top Rated Comments

dominiongamma Avatar
88 months ago
Guess I’m skipping the 10 waiting for the 11. Since in a couples months later in 2018 a newer iPhone will be out.
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
EvilEvil Avatar
88 months ago
I'm glad I upgraded to the iPhone 8+. I will not be buying another iPhone until they remove the notch.
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
NinjaHERO Avatar
88 months ago
Good plan. Wait for 2018 everyone, so mine ships right away. lol
Score: 18 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Blackstick Avatar
88 months ago
I'm glad I upgraded to the iPhone 8+. I will not be buying another iPhone until they remove the notch.
You might be waiting, awhile. I'm with Marco on this one, that controversial yet tech-packed notch is going to make the iPhone look iconic and unmistakably an iPhone from 30 feet away, instead of an anonymous Android.

https://marco.org/2017/09/18/courage
Score: 17 Votes (Like | Disagree)
testcard Avatar
88 months ago
Has anyone even seen a photograph of Kuo - does he actually exist?
Score: 16 Votes (Like | Disagree)
nburwell Avatar
88 months ago
I'm still glad I went with the 8+. I'm okay waiting until next year when the second generation X is released.
Score: 15 Votes (Like | Disagree)