Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X Supercycle Won't Really Happen Until 2018

For months, many Wall Street analysts have predicted the iPhone X will drive a significant number of existing iPhone users to upgrade. The latest word from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, suggests the so-called "supercycle" won't truly gain momentum until 2018 due to multiple factors.

iphone x dual lens camera
Namely, Kuo said the TrueDepth camera system's reported production issues will be "significantly addressed" in 2018. He also believes new iPhone models launched in 2018 will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017, with next year's lineup likely to retain many of the iPhone X's appealing features.

Here's the excerpt from Kuo's research note obtained by MacRumors today:

The market generally refers to 2017 as the super cycle of the iPhone, but we think the real super cycle will be in 2018 for the following reasons: (1) TrueDepth Camera's production issues will be significantly addressed in 2018F; (2) new models launched in 2018F will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017; and (3) the product mix, specifications and designs of new iPhone models from 2018F will be more competitive. We estimate that for 2017, iPhone shipments will come in at 210-220mn units, which should grow to be 245-255mn units in 2018.

Kuo estimated that once iPhone X's production issues are solved in the fourth quarter of this year, shipments will "pick up strongly" in the first half of 2018.

Related Forum: iPhone

Top Rated Comments

dominiongamma Avatar
67 months ago
Guess I’m skipping the 10 waiting for the 11. Since in a couples months later in 2018 a newer iPhone will be out.
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
EvilEvil Avatar
67 months ago
I'm glad I upgraded to the iPhone 8+. I will not be buying another iPhone until they remove the notch.
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
NinjaHERO Avatar
67 months ago
Good plan. Wait for 2018 everyone, so mine ships right away. lol
Score: 18 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Blackstick Avatar
67 months ago
I'm glad I upgraded to the iPhone 8+. I will not be buying another iPhone until they remove the notch.
You might be waiting, awhile. I'm with Marco on this one, that controversial yet tech-packed notch is going to make the iPhone look iconic and unmistakably an iPhone from 30 feet away, instead of an anonymous Android.

https://marco.org/2017/09/18/courage
Score: 17 Votes (Like | Disagree)
testcard Avatar
67 months ago
Has anyone even seen a photograph of Kuo - does he actually exist?
Score: 16 Votes (Like | Disagree)
nburwell Avatar
67 months ago
I'm still glad I went with the 8+. I'm okay waiting until next year when the second generation X is released.
Score: 15 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

General Black Friday Deals 2022 Blue

All the Apple Black Friday Deals You Can Get Right Now: AirPods, Apple TV, Mac, iPad, and More

Saturday November 19, 2022 8:00 am PST by
Last week was jam-packed with early Black Friday deals, and now that the shopping holiday is right around the corner, we're going back through all of the best sales you might have missed over the past week and updating as prices change and new deals arrive. As with all holiday shopping, there's no guarantee that better prices won't come around later in the season, but if you want to shop early,...
iphone 14 pro hands snowflakes 1

Best Black Friday iPhone Deals Available Today

Wednesday November 23, 2022 1:55 pm PST by
Cellular carriers have always offered big savings on the newest iPhone models during the holidays, and Black Friday 2022 is no different. Right now we're tracking notable offers on the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Pro devices from AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. For even more savings, keep an eye on older models like the iPhone 13. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these vendors....
new airpods lineup black friday

Best Black Friday AirPods Deals Available Today

Tuesday November 22, 2022 10:01 am PST by
Although we've been tracking Black Friday deals for a few weeks now, the shopping holiday is officially kicking off this week and we're highlighting the best sales for each of Apple's product lines. In this article, you'll find the best Black Friday sales on AirPods 2, AirPods 3, AirPods Pro, AirPods Pro 2, and AirPods Max. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these vendors....
Walmart November Deals Hero 2

Walmart Reveals Black Friday Plans With Week-Long Sales Starting Today

Monday November 21, 2022 8:35 am PST by
Retailers have been waiting longer and longer to reveal their specific plans for the week of Black Friday, now that the shopping event begins as early as October and most companies focus on "early Black Friday" deals first. Today, we've finally got more information from Walmart and all the official Black Friday discounts you can expect to shop this week. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner ...
Best Buy November Deals Hero

Best Buy Reveals Black Friday Plans With Sitewide Sales Available Now

Tuesday November 22, 2022 3:49 pm PST by
Following in the footsteps of Target and Walmart, Best Buy this week detailed its plans for the Black Friday shopping holiday and its schedule looks a lot like other retailers. In terms of sales, Best Buy has the expected list of TVs, appliances, video games, computers, streaming devices, and more. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with Best Buy. When you click a link and make a...
apple watch gold ornaments

Best Black Friday Apple Watch Deals Available Today

Wednesday November 23, 2022 9:31 am PST by
We're tracking all of the best Apple product discounts for Black Friday this week, and the Apple Watch always makes a great gift around the holiday season, so you're guaranteed to find solid discounts right now. In this article, you'll discover the best Black Friday sales on Apple Watch Series 8, Apple Watch SE, and Apple Watch Ultra. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these...
apple wallet drivers license feature

These U.S. States Will Let You Add Your Driver's License to Your iPhone

Tuesday November 22, 2022 1:42 pm PST by
Earlier this year, Apple launched a feature allowing residents of participating U.S. states to add their driver's license or state ID to the Wallet app on the iPhone and Apple Watch, providing a convenient and contactless way to display proof of identity or age. As we wait for IDs in the Wallet app to expand to additional U.S. states, here is everything you need to know about how the feature ...