Apple Set to Earn $1 Trillion in Revenue From iOS Ecosystem By Middle of 2017

Apple's iOS ecosystem is on course to generate over $1 trillion in revenues for the company by the middle of this year, according to Asymco analyst Horace Dediu.

Dediu's prediction is based on several factors, starting with an expectation that Apple will have sold at least 1.2 billion iPhones in its first 10 years, earning it the rank of "most successful product of all time" and laying the foundations for the company's iPad, Apple TV, iPod touch, and Apple Watch categories.

iphone-units-sold

In its first 10 years, the iPhone will have sold at least 1.2 billion units, making it the most successful product of all time. The iPhone also enabled the iOS empire which includes the iPod touch, the iPad, the Apple Watch and Apple TV whose combined total unit sales will reach 1.75 billion units over 10 years. This total is likely to top 2 billion units by the end of 2018.

Dediu claims revenue from iOS device sales will total about $980 billion by the middle of this year, and adds to that estimate more than $100 billon in revenues from supporting services (including app content sales), putting the ecosystem's total worth above the $1 trillion mark.

The analyst notes this excludes payouts to iOS app developers of around $60 billion, with the rate of payments now reaching $20 billion per year. Those numbers would appear to tally with comments made by Apple CEO Tim Cook last August that the company has paid out more than $50 billion to developers over the lifetime of the App Store, which first launched for the iPhone in 2008.

Dediu points to the locked-in nature of Apple's ecosystem ensuring the iPhone's resilience and longevity, despite strong competition from so-called "iPhone killers" that come and go, while its robust feature set and attached services continue to earn it the market reputation as the premium smartphone to beat.

In addition, the analyst claims that Android users are now more likely to switch to iOS rather than the other way around – a trend supported by previous reports from both market analysts and Apple, including, notably, comments made in the company's Q4 2016 earnings call.

Dediu ends by predicting not another "Big Bang" for the iPhone, but a "process of continual improvement" as the smartphone enters its second decade. Indeed, the analyst expresses more excitement for its network of "ancilliary smart accessories" like the Apple Watch, the AirPods, Apple Pencil, and other possible new wearables that point toward a future where the iPhone is a hub to a mesh of personal devices. "The seamless integration of such devices is what has always set Apple apart," Dediu concludes.

Tag: Asymco

Popular Stories

ios 18 button bulge

iOS 18 Adds Pop-Out Bezel Animation When Pressing iPhone Buttons

Tuesday June 11, 2024 10:40 am PDT by
iOS 18 includes a small but interesting change for the buttons on the iPhone, adding more of a visual element when changing volume, activating the Action button, or locking the screen. When you press an iPhone button in iOS 18, the display bezel bulges outward slightly. This feature is available for the volume buttons, Action button and the power button, and it will also likely be used for...
iOS 18 Mock iPhone 16 Feature Gray

Revealed: iOS 18 Works With These iPhone Models

Monday June 10, 2024 3:57 am PDT by
iOS 18 will be compatible with the same iPhone models as iOS 17, according to a post on X today from a private account with a proven track record of sharing build numbers for upcoming iOS updates. iOS 18 will be compatible with the iPhone XR, and hence also the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max models with the same A12 Bionic chip, but older iPhone models will miss out. Here is the full...
Next Gen CarPlay WWDC24 1

Apple Provides Updated Look at Next-Generation CarPlay at WWDC 2024

Monday June 10, 2024 7:11 pm PDT by
Apple today shared a few WWDC 2024 coding sessions related to its upcoming next-generation CarPlay system ahead of its launch later this year. The sessions include lots of updated next-generation CarPlay images, with one revealing new Vehicle, Media, and Climate apps in action for the first time. MacRumors previously discovered evidence of these apps in the iOS 17.4 beta. Next-generation...
ios 18 tile summary

Apple Announces iOS 18 With New Customization Features, Redesigned Photos App, and More

Monday June 10, 2024 10:17 am PDT by
Apple today previewed iOS 18, the next major update to the operating system for the iPhone, with new customization features, a redesigned Photos app, and more. iOS 18 features new customization tools for the Home Screen. App icons now feature Dark Mode and users can tint them with a color to create a unique look. Apps can also now be placed anywhere on the Home Screen freely. The Control...
sequoia

macOS Sequoia and iPadOS 18 Drop Support for These Macs and iPads

Monday June 10, 2024 4:13 pm PDT by
macOS Sequoia is still compatible with several Intel-based Macs, but it does drop support for 2018 and 2019 models of the MacBook Air. macOS Sequoia is compatible with the following Macs, according to Apple: MacBook Pro: 2018 and later MacBook Air: 2020 and later Mac mini: 2018 and later iMac: 2019 and later iMac Pro: 2017 Mac Studio: 2022 and later Mac Pro: 2019 and later The...
maxresdefault

Everything Apple Announced at WWDC 2024 in Nine Minutes

Monday June 10, 2024 7:59 pm PDT by
Apple crammed an overwhelming number of new features into its WWDC 2024 keynote event, introducing Apple Intelligence, iOS 18, iPadOS 18, macOS Sequoia, visionOS 2, watchOS 11, and tvOS 18. It was hard to keep up with everything that Apple highlighted, so we did a video of all of the new additions you won't want to miss. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. We've also...
iOS 18 Siri Integrated Feature

Massive iPhone Upgrade Coming This Week But These Devices Will Miss Out

Sunday June 9, 2024 1:25 pm PDT by
Apple is planning a major AI overhaul in iOS 18, with a feature set it is referring to as "Apple Intelligence." However, these new features will not work on older iPhones, even if they do appear on the new operating system's device compatibility list. Apple's initial AI roadmap for iOS 18 is said to come in two parts: Basic AI features that will be processed on-device, and more advanced...

Top Rated Comments

djcerla Avatar
97 months ago
In an alternate, but very possible universe, the iPhone got crushed by Android. Developers flocked to Android-first or Android-only. Apple tried to stop the hemorrhage by creating cheap iPhone models, that ultimately devalued the brand, thus spiraling down even more.

In this universe, thankfully, Apple is a very well run company, and the iPhone thrived, leaving only the market scraps to the competition.
Score: 21 Votes (Like | Disagree)
McDonkel Avatar
97 months ago
It seems that 3/4 of the people on this forum think that Apple is doomed and Tim Cook should be fired, and that the key to Apple's turnaround is to turn the iPad into a Surface Pro and to make Macs more like Hackintoshes.

No amount of evidence, such as this article, will convince them that Apple is doing fine and making good choices that are popular with customers. They want their inch-thick iPad with mouse support and a file system, they want their Mac with a GTX 1080. And unless Apple delivers these things to them ASAP, Apple is doomed and Tim Cook is the worst.
Score: 14 Votes (Like | Disagree)
otternonsense Avatar
97 months ago
Loved your humor and thinking in this post but I have to make one correction. From the front lines (consumers with educational background in business) it seems that Apple has gone "stale", possibly when they released the first apple watch that was far from impressive (still own S0 and S2 so not bashing). I don't feel like looking up the video but look back at Tim Cook saying "we have amazing products in line to release this year", well we got the S2 which got minor tweaks (love it though), another iPhone with practically the same features plus a non-physical home button, and a MacBook that really isn't that impressive for how long the wait was. We didn't get anything from any of the other product lines, we didn't get anything "new", and nothing earth shattering as Cook seemed to have hyped it up, and we actually lost product lines like the monitors. This isn't a bash on Cook or an Apple was better with Jobs rant, just saying that the hype didn't seem to deliver last year like it was supposed to.
According to Cook, the best is always coming. It's hard to believe him though, because it never actually does.*

*this is a quasi-bash on Cook's Apple.
Score: 11 Votes (Like | Disagree)
otternonsense Avatar
97 months ago
No wonder the Mac is relegated in priorities... :(
Which makes zero business sense, because we NEED the Mac and Xcode to create those spiffy apps in the first place.
Score: 10 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Gandalf.Fix Avatar
97 months ago
It's the only ecosystem I've managed to teach my parents
Score: 9 Votes (Like | Disagree)
djcerla Avatar
97 months ago
When your only money making item is a phone and you have no other diversity, you can only ride that wave for so long before it vanishes. Apple is skating on thin ice and they need to diversify and bolster their current offerings and stop relying so heavily on ONE device to keep them going.
Uh?

The iPhone is far from being the only profitable business of the firm. At the contrary, every sector Apple competes in is profitable, from Services, which are enormously up YOY, to the Apple Watch (it's the size of Rolex), to Beats hardware to the iPad to obviously the Mac. Not to mention the billion-dollar business just launched with the AirPods.

Contrast this to Google, Facebook that get >95% revenues from the advertising trick. Everything else they do is losing them vast amounts of money, just check out Alphabet X' impressive list of high profile failures.

The iPhone is huge and unmatched, so all the other revenue streams look small in comparison, but having a huge and unmatched business is not a liability, it's a plus.
Score: 8 Votes (Like | Disagree)