Analysts Predict Q2 2014 Decline in iPad Sales, Slight Increase in iPhone Sales

Sales of Apple's iPad and iPhone remained strong during the holiday season with record quarterly sales reported in Q1 2014. Analyst predictions for Apple's second quarter of its fiscal year suggest iPhone sales may rise slightly, while iPad sales may decline slightly, reports Philip Elmer-DeWitt of Fortune's Apple 2.0 blog.

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The consensus estimate from 21 Wall Street professionals and 13 amateur analysts predict iPad sales of 19.3 million, a 0.7 percent decline in Q2 2014. This is a significant change from Q2 2013, which saw a 55 percent year-over-year increase.

The consensus estimate, at 19.3 million, would represent a 0.7% decline, with the pros slightly more optimistic (at 19.4 million) than the amateurs (19.2 million). Dragging down the amateur numbers is the 15 million estimate submitted by the Braeburn Group's Matt Lew. Tugging in the other direction is Horace Dediu's 21.8 million. One represents a year-over-year decline of 23%, the other an increase of 12%.

This dip in sales may only be temporary as Apple is expected to launch updated models of the iPad Air and iPad mini with Retina Display later this year, and may launch a larger-screen iPad Pro sometime in future after production issues are solved.

Apple will announce its earnings for the second fiscal quarter (first calendar quarter) of 2014 on Wednesday, April 23. The earnings release is posted just after 4:30 PM ET following the close of regular stock trading, and the conference call is scheduled to follow at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific.

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Top Rated Comments

Rodster Avatar
132 months ago
You can only MILK your product line for so long before your sales chart begins to look like a sine wave. Hey Tim, where's the new an exciting stuff you promised? While your at it where's the updated Mac mini? :rolleyes:
Score: 10 Votes (Like | Disagree)
pianophile Avatar
132 months ago
"Analysts Predict"

All I read was "Analysts Predict...", and I tuned out.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Makosuke Avatar
132 months ago
More accurate headline: "Analysts predict Apple sales based on numbers extracted from rectal cavities"

It's possible that some of these guesses are correct, but based on past precedent, if they are, it's not much better than dumb luck. They're going to make up some plausible numbers, then irrational people will buy or sell AAPL based on them, then after the actual announcement an overlapping group of irrational people will buy or sell AAPL based on how Apple either beat or failed to meet the predictions. And whether said people buy or sell will not necessarily be in direct relation to predicted or actual performance--exceeding expectations has no guarantee of not generating a selloff. for example.

At least it's better than the firms that make wild guesses about what the market will look like in five years, then release confident-sounding reports with precise numbers based on them.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
cflem Avatar
132 months ago
Doom.

Cue taps. It's over.

or...


get ready to buy AAPL at a bargain.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
TWSS37 Avatar
132 months ago
All I read was "Analysts Predict...", and I tuned out.

It's uncanny how this is constantly posted in analyst threads - specifically ones that predict not-so-rosy pictures.

If you tuned out, why are you posting? Why did you even bother hitting the "reply" button? How do you even know what the analyst said if you tuned out? :confused:
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
maflynn Avatar
132 months ago
I can only see a rise in iPhone sales if they release a new iPhone in Q2, otherwise that doesn't make sense.
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)