Kuo: Apple Betting 6.1" iPhone 12 Will Outsell 5.4" iPhone 12 Mini

Apple believes the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 will outsell the 5.4-inch iPhone 12 mini and the more expensive 6.1-inch ‌iPhone 12‌ Pro and 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max, according to shipment estimates shared in an investor's note today by Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

iphone12dummylineup
According to Kuo, Apple's estimated shipment allocations for the new iPhone models are as follows:

  • 5.4-inch ‌iPhone 12‌ Mini - 20 to 25%
  • 6.1-inch ‌iPhone 12‌ - 40 to 45%
  • 6.1-inch ‌iPhone 12‌ Pro - 15 to 20%
  • 6.7-inch ‌iPhone 12 Pro Max‌ - 15 to 20%

Though there has been demand for a smaller ‌iPhone‌, smaller screen sizes are not popular worldwide. It will be the cheapest ‌iPhone‌ available with rumors suggesting it will sell for $699, but Kuo says that even with the lower price point, it will not meet the demand for a larger display.

The ‌iPhone 12‌ Pro and ‌iPhone 12 Pro Max‌ have better hardware and are higher-tier models, but are more expensive, so Kuo's conclusion is that the ‌iPhone 12‌ "will have the highest shipment allocation" of the ‌iPhone 12‌ models.

Kuo believes that price point is critical to the ‌iPhone 12‌'s success. Apple's $699 iPhone 11 accounted for 70 to 75 percent of ‌iPhone‌ shipments during the first three quarters of 2020, which Kuo attributes to price. 5G is "crucial" but price point will be the "critical factor" when it comes to ‌iPhone‌ sales.

Recent rumors indicate the ‌iPhone 12 mini‌ will start at $699, the ‌iPhone 12‌ will start at $799, the ‌iPhone 12‌ Pro will start at $999, and the ‌iPhone 12 Pro Max‌ will start at $1,099.

In total, Kuo believes Apple will ship 80 to 85 million units of all ‌iPhone 12‌ models in the fourth quarter of 2020, higher than the 75 million ‌iPhone 11‌ units (all models) shipped in the fourth quarter of 2019.

The shipment forecast of 12 series components is 80-85 mn units, higher than 11 series' 75 mn units in 4Q19. However, we think the demand for 12 series in 4Q20 will be lower than that of the 11 series in 4Q19 because of the shorter sales period. Therefore, the shipment forecast of components in 4Q20 does not reflect the real demand for the 12 series.

Apple could miss some peak season demand in the United States and Europe due to the late launch timeline and the "tight supply" after the ‌iPhone 12‌ series launches. We haven't yet heard much on what ‌iPhone‌ supply will look like, but it's reasonable to assume that since production was delayed into October, we could see some models sell out quickly.

The ‌iPhone 12 mini‌ and the ‌iPhone 12 Pro Max‌, which are not expected to be available until November could be some of the most constrained models. The ‌iPhone 12‌ and ‌iPhone 12‌ Pro are expected to be available for pre-order the Friday after the event in October, while the ‌iPhone 12 mini‌ and Pro Max will allegedly launch on different dates in November.

Related Roundup: iPhone 12
Related Forum: iPhone

Top Rated Comments

GeoStructural Avatar
21 months ago
Man, release it already. I can´t wait to put my hands on my 6.7" iPhone 12 Pro Max midnight blue, only to cover it later with a case.

I will also choose the lowest storage capacity only to complain later during a trip for not having enough storage.


I am praying they don't water down the camera on the 12 Pro.
Not necessarily "watered-down" since it is going to be an improvement over its equivalent 11 Pro, but they are definitely coming back to having different specs on the "Max" models, arguably due to the larger size... But I feel you, I wish they would give all the iPhones the same specifications across the lineup and the only difference being the screen size.
Score: 23 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Doomtomb Avatar
21 months ago
This is just a move by Apple to move up the ASP of the iPhone yet again.

Last year: iPhone 11 (greatest iPhone ever) 6.1" $699

This year: iPhone 12 mini 5.4" $699
iPhone 12 6.1" $799
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
HeavenDynamic Avatar
21 months ago
Can't wait to get my 6.1" 12 Pro
Score: 17 Votes (Like | Disagree)
MikeRecordEdit Avatar
21 months ago
Even if the 12 Mini only sold 20% out of the group on average, this would have to be seen as a general win for small phones on the market right? Considering we haven't had any real smaller non-Apple options since the Sony Xperia Compact series.
Score: 17 Votes (Like | Disagree)
turbineseaplane Avatar
21 months ago
As an original SE Owner and User to this day, the 12 mini is the first iPhone I’ve even remotely considered purchasing in years
Score: 16 Votes (Like | Disagree)
mozumder Avatar
21 months ago
If the iPhone mini had all three lenses, I would get that. My main goal is a good camera system.
Score: 16 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Related Stories

iPhone 14 Mock Feature Pruple 2

iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max Hole-Punch Displays to Be Supplied By LG and Samsung

Thursday December 23, 2021 2:58 am PST by
Next year's iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max will feature hole-punched LTPO OLED display panels supplied by Samsung and LG, according to Korean site The Elec. Rumors that the 2022 iPhone models won't have a notch started in March of this year, when Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said they will instead adopt a hole-punch design, a design that Android devices have used for a few years now. The...
iphone lineup september

iPhone XR and iPhone 12 Pro Discontinued, iPhone 12, iPhone 12 Mini, iPhone 11, and iPhone SE Still Available

Tuesday September 14, 2021 11:37 am PDT by
With the launch of the new iPhone 13, iPhone 13 mini, iPhone 13 Pro, and iPhone 13 Pro Max, Apple has refined its iPhone lineup and has discontinued the iPhone XR and the iPhone 12 Pro. The iPhone 12, iPhone 11, and iPhone SE are still around as lower-cost options, with all models getting a price drop. Apple's full lineup continues to be priced starting at $399: iPhone SE - $399 iPhon...
iphone 12 mini pro max side by side

Apple Working on Big-Screen iPhone for Less Than $900

Monday July 5, 2021 3:11 am PDT by
Apple is working on a big-screen 6.7-inch iPhone with a price tag lower than $900, according to reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. In a recent note to investors seen by MacRumors, Kuo said that Apple plans to continue with four models in its main iPhone lineup in 2022. Kuo previously stated that the iPhone 13, destined for this year, will be the final iPhone lineup to feature a 5.4-inch ...
iPhone 13 mini vs 12 Pro Max Feature 3

Tiny iPhone 13 Mini Outlasts Giant iPhone 12 Pro Max

Wednesday September 29, 2021 2:06 am PDT by
Amid major battery life improvements across the iPhone 13 lineup, even the iPhone 13 mini now surpasses last year's iPhone 12 Pro for battery life when streaming video. Though there are battery life improvements during virtually all tasks, streaming video performance is where the iPhone 13 lineup's battery life boost is most apparent:iPhone 12 mini: 10 hours iPhone 12: 11 hours iPhone 12...
Apple iPhone13 family lineup 220308 2

Apple Unveils New iPhone 13 'Green' and iPhone 13 Pro 'Alpine Green' Colors

Tuesday March 8, 2022 10:09 am PST by
Apple debuted two new iPhone 13 colors at its "Peek Performance" digital event today, offering the iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 mini in a new "green" and the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max in "alpine green." "People love the design of iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13, and we're excited to unveil the stunning new alpine green and green finishes, which join the wide range of beautiful colors on the...
iphone 13 yellow with text

When is the iPhone 13's Release Date?

Monday August 23, 2021 3:16 am PDT by
Apple announced the iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro at its September "California Streaming" event, revealing the long-awaited features of the new smartphones ahead of the first devices arriving to customers. After a later-than-usual launch for the iPhone 12 models last year, Apple has returned to its traditional September smartphone unveiling timeframe for the iPhone 13 lineup, which features...
iPhone 14 Mock pill and hole thumb

iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max Schematics Reveal Larger Camera Bump and Thicker Overall Design

Tuesday March 22, 2022 7:31 am PDT by
Newly surfaced detailed schematics for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max have been shared online by Max Weinbach, revealing that Apple's upcoming high-end iPhones could feature a more prominent camera bump and a thicker overall design. Last week, more basic schematics for the iPhone 14 Pro were shared, but the ones shared by Weinbach are more detailed and offer measurements for the...
iphone 13 pro max display bleen

All iPhone 13 Pro Models Facing Up to One-Month Delay in Shipments in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom

Friday October 1, 2021 8:52 am PDT by
All possible configurations of the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max are currently showing a 3 to 4-week, even up to a month delay in shipments in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, with in-store stock varying in availability. At the time of writing, in the United States, every possible configuration of the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max, regardless of color or...

Popular Stories

apple ar headset concept 1

Apple's Headset Said to Feature 14 Cameras Enabling Lifelike Avatars, Jony Ive Has Remained Involved With Design

Friday May 20, 2022 6:50 am PDT by
Earlier this week, The Information's Wayne Ma outlined struggles that Apple has faced during the development of its long-rumored AR/VR headset. Now, in a follow-up report, he has shared several additional details about the wearable device. Apple headset render created by Ian Zelbo based on The Information reporting For starters, one of the headset's marquee features is said to be lifelike...
anker 563 dock ports

Anker's Latest USB-C Docking Station Brings Triple-Display Support to M1 Macs

Wednesday May 18, 2022 7:06 am PDT by
While Apple's early M1-based Macs can only officially support a single external display, there are ways around the limitation. Anker is launching a new 10-in-1 USB-C docking station today which delivers just that. The Anker 563 USB-C dock includes two HDMI ports and a DisplayPort port, and it leverages DisplayLink to carry multiple video signals over a single connection. Given that this hub...
apple data auction iphone privacy ad

Apple Highlights iPhone's Latest Privacy Features in New 'Data Auction' Ad

Wednesday May 18, 2022 9:00 am PDT by
Apple today shared a new ad highlighting iPhone privacy features like App Tracking Transparency and Mail Privacy Protection that are designed to give users more transparency and control when it comes to their personal data being collected. The ad revolves around a young woman named Ellie who discovers that her personal data is being sold at an auction house, with bids being placed on her...
Prosser Series 8 3

Apple Watch Series 8 Rumored to Feature New Design With Flat Display

Wednesday May 18, 2022 6:21 am PDT by
The Apple Watch Series 8 could feature an all-new design with a flat display, according to the leaker known as "ShrimpApplePro." In his latest video on the YouTube channel Front Page Tech, Jon Prosser highlighted information from ShrimpApplePro that suggests the Apple Watch Series 8 could feature a flat display in what seems to be a design originally rumored for the Apple Watch Series 7. ...
sony headphones 1

Sony's New WH-1000XM5 Headphones vs. Apple's AirPods Max

Friday May 20, 2022 12:18 pm PDT by
Sony this week came out with an updated version of its popular over-ear noise canceling headphones, so we picked up a pair to compare them to the AirPods Max to see which headphones are better and whether it's worth buying the $400 WH-1000XM5 from Sony over Apple's $549 AirPods Max. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. First of all, the AirPods Max win out when it comes ...
iPhone 14 Purple Lineup Feature

Will the iPhone 14 Be a Disappointment?

Saturday May 21, 2022 9:00 am PDT by
With around four months to go before Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 14 lineup, the overwhelming majority of rumors related to the new devices so far have focused on the iPhone 14 Pro, rather than the standard iPhone 14 – leading to questions about how different the iPhone 14 will actually be from its predecessor, the iPhone 13. The iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max are expected...
apple ar headset concept 2

Apple's AR/VR Headset Nearing Completion as Board Gets Demo

Thursday May 19, 2022 9:52 am PDT by
Apple last week demonstrated its upcoming AR/VR headset to Apple board members, indicating that the device is in an advanced stage of development and could see a debut in the not too distant future, reports Bloomberg. Apple has also ramped up development of the software that runs on the headset, with that software expected to be called "RealityOS," or rOS for short. Render via designer Ian ...