Ming-Chi Kuo Says Coronavirus Outbreak Impacting iPhone Supply, Lowers Shipment Forecast

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has lowered his iPhone shipment forecast by 10 percent to 36-40 million units in the first quarter of 2020, noting that the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak is affecting iPhone supply in China.

For example, multiple reports have indicated that assembly of the rumored "iPhone 9" or "iPhone SE 2" could be disrupted. The lower-cost device, expected to be a revamped version of the iPhone 8, was rumored to enter mass production in February ahead of a March release. Apple could still announce the device in March, but initial supply could be limited until production can ramp up.


In his research note with TF International Securities, seen by MacRumors, Kuo added that smartphone shipments in the Chinese market declined by 50-60 percent year-over-year during the Chinese New Year holiday period, possibly due to declining consumer confidence in the country stemming from the coronavirus outbreak.

Out of an abundance of caution, Apple said it has closed all of its corporate offices, stores, and contact centers in mainland China through at least February 9 due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Earlier this week, the World Health Organization declared the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak a global public health emergency. More information about the virus and how to protect yourself is available on its website.

Related Roundup: iPhone SE 2

Top Rated Comments

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2 weeks ago
Reminder that the flu kills 36,000 Americans every year.
Rating: 15 Votes
2 weeks ago


Reminder that the flu kills 36,000 Americans every year.


Reminder that the WHO doesn't declare a global emergency for the normal flu and China doesn't normally quarantine cities of 36 million (while building two hospitals on site) for the normal flu either. That stat means nothing as well without comparing survival rates among those affected, of which the coronavirus is (currently) around 6-10x more lethal. You're also comparing an entire years stats to roughly a month.

I keep seeing this stat posted but I'll trust the scientists, epidemiologists and those in power at the WHO/CDC clearly stating this is a problem over internet commenters.
Rating: 12 Votes
2 weeks ago
This is a terrible development for victims and their families. I can wait a bit for iPhone SE. Get better folks.
Rating: 11 Votes
2 weeks ago


Worst case scenario for AAPL:

NO 2020 iPhones are produced in China this year.

If that happens, the stock will drop by more than 2/3, & trade under $100/share.


I just closed my entire position on AAPL based on your post. I shall wait until the stock goes below $100 before jumping back in.
Rating: 10 Votes
2 weeks ago
with the extremely close living quarters in the dorms at some assembly places, I suspect we haven't even begun to see the impact of this horrible scourge
Rating: 6 Votes
2 weeks ago
This is why it's a bad idea to have a huge portion of your supply chain in one place. I hope this will prompt Apple to shift at least some of the supply chain to places like Taiwan, Vietnam, India, or maybe even the United States!

Especially the US. Apple has more than enough cash on hand to do so.
Rating: 4 Votes
2 weeks ago


Reminder that the flu kills 36,000 Americans every year.



typically at least one American per year is shot by a dog. I’m not sure how this is relevant but just thought you could use the reminder.
Rating: 4 Votes
2 weeks ago


Indeed! But with many smartphone manufacturers having assembly contracts with Hon-Hai (aka Foxxtron) we'll see them hit as well: Samsung, Sony, brands under BBK (Oppo, One+, etc).


Not Samsung. Not Sony.

And I believe you mean Foxconn, not Foxxtron... unless there's some inside joke I'm not aware of.

[url unfurl=false]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-samsung-elec-china/samsung-ends-mobile-phone-production-in-china-idUSKBN1WH0LR[/url]

Samsung ends mobile phone production in China

October 2, 2019

SEOUL (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics Co Ltd has ended mobile telephone production in China, it said on Wednesday, hurt by intensifying competition from domestic rivals in the world’s biggest smartphone market.

The shutdown of Samsung’s last China phone factory comes after it cut production at the plant in the southern city of Huizhou in June and suspended another factory late last year, underscoring stiff competition in the country.

The South Korean tech giant’s ceased phone production in China follows other manufacturers shifting production from China due to rising labor costs and the economic slowdown.

Sony also said it was closing its Beijing smartphone plant and would only make smartphones in Thailand.

But Apple still makes major products in China.
Rating: 3 Votes
2 weeks ago
Ah yes that time of year when we get all the iPhone production issues rumors.
Rating: 2 Votes
2 weeks ago


Reminder that the flu kills 36,000 Americans every year.

Reminder that the number of coronavirus infections more than doubles every week.

Reminder also that the numbers will very strongly depend on the actions taken. The best case is to do everything possible to slow it down, and it ends up being harmless, and everyone looks stupid for taking strong actions. The worst case is doing nothing and in a year's time we are all infected.
Rating: 2 Votes

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