Apple Stock Forecasted to Rise as Lifetime iPhone Sales Reach 1 Billion

Apple will report its fiscal third quarter earnings results tomorrow, and both the company and analysts project a year-over-year decline in iPhone sales and overall revenue for a second consecutive quarter.

iphone6design
Apple expects third quarter revenue of between $41 billion and $43 billion, which would be up to 18 percent lower than the $49.6 billion in revenue it posted in the year-ago quarter. The consensus among analysts is around $42.1 billion in revenue, which is essentially the midpoint of Apple's guidance.

Analysts estimate that Apple sold at least another 40 million iPhones during the June quarter, raising lifetime sales of the smartphone to some 987 million. Applying that sales rate to July -- just over 13 million iPhones per month -- it is likely that Apple will have sold its billionth iPhone between now and the end of this month.

1-billion-iPhones
The milestone comes at a time when iPhone sales are on the decline for the first time since the smartphone launched in 2007, an arguably inevitable lull following the smash-hit success of the larger-screened iPhone 6 series. The decline has affected Apple shares, which are down around 21 percent from a 52-week high of $123.91.

Nevertheless, many Wall Street firms expect iPhone growth to resume in 2017. The good news could extend to Apple's stock, as The Wall Street Journal yesterday reported that its "shares have been punished more than enough" and are due for a rally. It said the decline in iPhone sales "appears priced in."

Still, Apple has been punished more than enough. The iPhone slump appears priced in. And while the next iPhone, expected later this year, likely won’t be a significant upgrade, there is optimism that sales growth will soon bounce back. Analysts forecast iPhone unit sales will rise 5% for fiscal 2017, which ends next September.

After briefly touching the $100 mark last week for the first time since early June, Apple shares are currently trading around the $98 mark, a price that some analysts feel undervalues the company.

Apple analyst Brian White of Drexel Hamilton reiterated his "buy" rating for AAPL today, based on a projected price target of $185. UBS analyst Steven Milunovich also issued a "buy" rating today with a 12-month price target of $115.

Apple is expected to introduce a wide range of new products in the second half of 2016 that could further raise its stock price, including the iPhone 7, Apple Watch 2, and long-awaited 2016 MacBook Pro.

Apple's third quarter earnings results will be released at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, followed by a conference call with CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time. MacRumors will be providing live coverage of the news.

Update: BGC analyst Collin Gillis has, to the contrary, downgraded AAPL to a "sell" with a lower price target of $85. Apple shares are down nearly 1 percent in intraday trading, now hovering closer to the $97 mark.

Tag: AAPL

Top Rated Comments

keysofanxiety Avatar
60 months ago
Preposterous numbers. I bet Ballmer's not laughing now.

Score: 17 Votes (Like | Disagree)
keysofanxiety Avatar
60 months ago
2012 Samsung Galaxy S3 (Big screen)
2014 iPhone 6
2015 Samsung Galaxy S6 Edge
2017 iPhone 7 (Edge screen)
Samsung better come up with something new in 2017 or the iPhone will continue to decline in 2019
2012 Samsung Galaxy S3 (Laggy as hell)

2015 Samsung Galaxy S6 Edge (Still laggy as hell)

That's kind of what's important.
Score: 6 Votes (Like | Disagree)
djcerla Avatar
60 months ago
No, shares have not been punished enough, it will go down more after 3Q earning results. Iphone 8 with OLED is still too far away.
Given Apple has not warned otherwise, they will report numbers in line with guidance.

So, any disappointment would be a minor disappointment that will push the stock lower for some days, only to recover shortly after given the almost unbelievably low P/E.

But even a very small beat would translate into a much bigger leap up, that would continue down the quarter, because the stock is so severely undervalued now (current valuation assumes Apple's business would shrink 95% in 10 years, which is not realistic).

Summing up, it's riskier to bet against AAPL this time.
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
StevieD100 Avatar
60 months ago
2012 Samsung Galaxy S3 (Big screen)
2014 iPhone 6
2015 Samsung Galaxy S6 Edge
2017 iPhone 7 (Edge screen)
Samsung better come up with something new in 2017 or the iPhone will continue to decline in 2019
Sorry, but nothing Samsung does makes me even think about buying one. I vowed to never buy anything with a Samsung label on the outside after having almost a whole batch of HDD's go bad within a few weeks. Had real issues getting the warranty honoured.
As for the Edge Screen, totally useless for me.
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
EricTheHalfBee Avatar
60 months ago
This is why I laugh at people claiming Apple is in trouble for relying on the iPhone for most of their revenue. Even if iPhone sales stop growing, Apple could still sell 250 million a year to people upgrading from 2-3 year old devices. Apple would have $150-200 billion in revenue just from regular upgraders. Companies would KILL to be in a position that generated that much cash flow and profit on a consistent basis.

Meanwhile, Google makes 90% of their revenue from ads, yet nobody calls them out for relying to heavily on one product category.


Oh, and there's one more huge difference between someone like Apple and Google. Apple makes money selling things people WANT/DESIRE. Google makes their money selling things (ads) people DESPISE. Pretty clear who's on shaky ground.
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
EricTheHalfBee Avatar
60 months ago
So its looking like smartphones in existance-

• 400m iPhones (approx)
• 1.4B android

Total 1.8B
World population 7.4B

about 1 in 4 of the World population own a smartphone.
That 400 million number is way too low. The last 3 years Apple has sold 590 million iPhones, and it's safe to say that those would all still be in use.
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Top Stories

iphone 6 in hand

Apple Faces Another iPhone Lawsuit Over 'Programmed Obsolescence'

Monday March 1, 2021 6:44 am PST by
Apple faces a new class-action lawsuit that accuses it of deliberately releasing iOS updates that slowly reduce the performance of an iPhone, forcing customers to upgrade their devices. The lawsuit comes from the Portuguese Consumer Protection Agency, Deco Proteste (via Marketeer), which in a statement says that it will proceed with a case against the Cupertino tech giant because it...
PIA23764 RoverNamePlateonMars web

NASA Mars Perseverance Rover Uses Same PowerPC Chipset Found in 1998 G3 iMac

Tuesday March 2, 2021 3:21 am PST by
NASA's Perseverance rover, which recently made history landing on the surface of Mars, is powered by the same processor used in an iMac more than 23 years old. Image Credit: NASA As reported by NewScientist (via Gizmodo), the rover includes the PowerPC 750 processor, the same chip used in the G3 iMac in 1998. The main chipset is the same; however, there are differences between the...
magsafe charging brick feature

Prosser: iPhone 12 MagSafe Battery Pack to Feature Reverse Charging

Monday March 1, 2021 1:18 pm PST by
Apple is working on MagSafe-compatible battery packs that will be compatible with the iPhone 12 models, and leaker Jon Prosser today said on the Genius Bar podcast that one version of the battery pack will feature "reverse charging." According to Prosser, Apple is working on two versions of the battery packs, one that's a standard version and one that's a premium version with reverse...
iphone 12 pro display video

iPhone 13 to Include 1TB Storage Option and LiDAR Across the Board, Says Wedbush Analyst

Monday March 1, 2021 4:00 am PST by
Apple's forthcoming iPhone 13 could include a 1TB storage option for some models and LiDAR Scanners across the entire lineup, according to a report from Wedbush analysts. In a new note to investors, seen by MacRumors, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said that initial Asian supply chain checks gave the firm "increased confidence" that Apple's 5G-driven product cycle would extend well into 2022,...
Top Stories 47 Feature copy

Top Stories: MacBook Pro, iMac, and AirPods Rumors, macOS 11.2.2, MagSafe Wallet Revisited

Saturday February 27, 2021 6:00 am PST by
March is right around the corner, and that means our first good opportunity for Apple product launches in 2021 as the company frequently has significant launches in March or April each year. We're hearing rumors about MacBook Pro, iMac, AirPods, and more, although many of these will be coming out at different times over the course of the year. This week also saw a macOS update to address a ...
microsoft edge ios android

Bill Gates Says His Preference for Android Over iPhone is Due to Pre-Installed Software

Friday February 26, 2021 3:35 am PST by
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates this week participated in his first meeting on Clubhouse, the increasingly popular invite-only conversation app, where he fielded a range of questions as part of an ongoing book tour. Gates was interviewed by journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin, and given that the Clubhouse app is currently only available on iOS, naturally one of the questions that came up was...
iphone 12 120hz thumbnail feature

Kuo: iPhone 13 Lineup to Feature Smaller Notch and Larger Batteries, 120Hz Display for Pro Models, and More

Monday March 1, 2021 7:50 am PST by
iPhone 13 models will all feature a smaller notch, while the two Pro models will be equipped with low-power LTPO display technology for a 120Hz refresh rate, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said today in a research note obtained by MacRumors. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Several other sources have previously claimed that some iPhone 13 models will support a 120Hz refresh...
maxresdefault

HomeKit Essentials Worth Checking Out

Saturday February 27, 2021 7:05 am PST by
HomeKit was slow to take off after its 2014 launch, but now that it's been around for seven years, there are hundreds of HomeKit products available, ranging from doorbells and speakers to TVs, lights, and cameras. In our latest YouTube video, we rounded up some of our favorite HomeKit products that we find most useful. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. HomePod...
First Look Big Sur Feature2

Apple Releases macOS Big Sur 11.2.2 to Prevent MacBooks From Being Damaged by Third-Party Non-Compliant Docks

Thursday February 25, 2021 10:07 am PST by
Apple today released macOS Big Sur 11.2.2, the fourth update to the macOS Big Sur operating system that launched in November. macOS Big Sur 11.2.2 comes two weeks after the release of macOS Big Sur 11.2.1, a bug fix update. The new ‌‌‌‌macOS Big Sur‌‌‌ 11.2.2‌ update can be downloaded for free on all eligible Macs using the Software Update section of System Preferences....
Apple Prefer Lightning Over USB C Feature

iPhone Sticking With Lightning Port Over USB-C for 'Foreseeable Future'

Tuesday March 2, 2021 9:32 am PST by
Apple will retain the Lightning connector on the iPhone for the "foreseeable future," with no intention of switching to USB-C, according to reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. In spite of much of the industry moving toward USB-C, Apple will not be using it to replace the Lightning connector on the iPhone 13, or indeed on any iPhone model for the time being. In a note seen by MacRumors yesterday,...