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Analysts See Record-Breaking Sales for iPhone and Mac in Holiday Quarter

Tuesday January 20, 2015 8:02 am PST by Kelly Hodgkins

Apple's iPhone 6 and 6 Plus may boost the company's iPhone sales to a new record in the year-ending Q1 2015, says Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty in a recent investor note. In line with other analyst predictions, Huberty and her team expect iPhone sales in the December holiday quarter to reach as high as 69 million units, eclipsing last year's quarterly record of 51 million units sold in Q1 2014.

Huberty also predicts strong Mac sales based on IDC's estimate of 5.8 million units, well above Morgan Stanley's earlier estimate of 5.2 million units and exceeding the record-setting 5.5 million Macs the company sold in fiscal Q4 2014. While the iPhone and Mac climb, iPad demand year-over-year is expected to remain weak with 22 million units shipped in Q1 2015, down slightly from the 26 million sold in the same quarter of 2014.

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Looking ahead, Huberty believes Apple is on the cusp of a "super" iPhone upgrade cycle that will see an increased number of iPhone owners upgrading from their older iPhone models. The results from Morgan Stanley's Alphawise survey suggest that 35 percent of iPhone owners have an iPhone 4s or older. These older model iPhone owners are likely to upgrade in the next two years with nearly two-thirds of the predicted 200 million iPhone shipments in 2015 being purchased by these upgrade-eligible customers.

The Apple Watch also is expected to command interest in 2015 with 3 million units shipped during the first quarter of availability, predicts Huberty. Surveys suggest the wearable will be popular among iPhone owners, pushing sales to a predicted 30 million units in 2015.

Apple will announce the results for its first fiscal quarter of 2015 (fourth calendar quarter of 2014) and provide future earnings guidance on Tuesday, January 27. The quarterly earnings statement will be released around 1:30 PM Pacific/4:30 PM Eastern, with a conference call to discuss the report following at 2:00 PM Pacific/5:00 PM Eastern.

Tags: Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley

Top Rated Comments

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iapplelove

62 months ago

A decline in iPad sales of 15% cannot reasonably be called "slight."

I still think it's because many consumers won't need to upgrade their iPads every year. not because people don't want tablets or iPads.

Rating: 13 Votes

heeloliver

62 months ago

I'd rather see Macs sell well over iPads.

Rating: 12 Votes

MacFather

62 months ago

I think this is a very clear cut example of Tim Cooks Apple researching and then following market demand and trends to maximize profits and increase market share. What it does not do though, is follow the pioneering spirit and vision which was Steve Jobs to make products that were innovative, cutting edge, inventive, and above all...ones that took a chance and were the stuff of imagination. I think that the average person can see the total different direction under two different CEO's. It may not necessarily be a bad thing, especially for the profits of Apple, but I think that people who try and make the case that this company has any soul of what it once was, is lying to themselves and us. Apple is now officially a "me-too" bandwagon company that makes very refined products that its core audience and followers will of course, embrace. Nothing less, and certainly nothing more now.

Rating: 11 Votes

IJ Reilly

62 months ago

A decline in iPad sales of 15% cannot reasonably be called "slight."

Rating: 10 Votes

thekeyring

62 months ago

Apple is now officially a "me-too" bandwagon company that makes very refined products that its core audience and followers will of course, embrace. Nothing less, and certainly nothing more now.

Apple seems to be competing, not against Samsung or Google or HTC, but against a weird nostalgic memory of what we think Apple used to be.

Apple does not use anything from Google, unlike every other phone maker out there. It has it's own curated app store, content stores and OS, own apps, and still, while developing and maintaining all of this, makes more profit than any other smartphone company - despite those other companies getting their software & ecosystem from Google for free.

When you compare it like this, Apple is still a great company, and hardly a me-too player that many of the others are.

When the competition embraced multiple-core chips in their phones - going as high as 8 cores - did Apple? No.

When the competition released bigger and bigger screens, did Apple immediately release a "me too" phone? No. By all standards they are "late" to the big screen game, entering only when it made sense for them.

Go to pretty much any Galaxy S v iPhone YouTube video or forum: There will be a bunch of people complaining about the lack of iPhone specs. The lack of NFC in iPhone. Does Apple care? No.

Rating: 9 Votes

goobot

62 months ago

I wonder how much of the amount of people sticking with the 4S and older has to do with people not wanting to get giant phones and the record sales are from people switching from android now that they can get their phablets on iOS?

I know if my 4S hadn't died I would still be on it, as it is I switched to android to get a smaller screen than the 6 or 6+. So I wonder if those on the 4S will really upgrade to newer iPhones in as large of numbers as these analysts predict...

The 5s is a good small size

Rating: 8 Votes