The 10% drop in Apple's share value following the company's earnings release earlier this week was not entirely the fault of Apple, Fortune suggests, but rather that of overheated analyst predictions.

fortune worst
Fortune assessed the accuracy
of the predictions made by 68 analysts, and found that revenue figures ranged from $51.7 billion to $65.69 billion against Apple's actual performance of $54.51 billion. It produced a ranking of the analysts by the percentage errors in their predictions for both revenue and earnings per share, as well as overall performance metrics.

The analysts responsible for the sometimes wildly optimistic forecasts were not, said Fortune, doing Apple any favors.

The company didn't have a bad quarter. In fact, it posted its best quarter ever … But the stock market is an expectations game and Apple is expected to blow past analysts' estimates, not miss them.

The Fortune piece wryly observed that 'another way of looking at it is that Apple's analysts did worse than the company this quarter.'

Going forward, Apple has altered the way in which it provides guidance for upcoming quarterly performances. While the company had previously issued single "conservative" guidance estimates for both revenue and earnings that led to the expectation that Apple would always handily beat that number, it is now providing a range of guidance numbers for revenue and other factors.

Apple believes that the range will provide a more realistic idea of where the company expects performance to fall, although it is no longer providing any specific earnings per share guidance and instead allowing analysts to develop their own numbers based on the ranges of revenue, margin, expenses, and tax rate the company expects.

Top Rated Comments

madsci954 Avatar
126 months ago
So what they're saying is...

Dear analysts,
Shut the hell up!
Sincerely,
Fortune
Score: 16 Votes (Like | Disagree)
notjustjay Avatar
126 months ago
This shouldn't surprise anybody. We go through this right here on these forums with every Apple product launch.

It's always the same. In the weeks before the product launch, the rumors start flying. The new product will have a brand new design! It'll be thinner! Lighter! With twice the power! And there will be a price drop! And a spec bump across the line! The whole line-up will be updated! No, replaced! No, this is going to be the start of a brand new product category! Here are some product mockups. Here's what these could look like!

Then the discussion starts flying. "Here's what I'd like to see!" People start predicting entire product lines, including estimated pricing, and start drooling about how awesome it's all going to be.

Then the product announcement happens. It's a new version number with a reasonable spec bump. The form factor is the same as last year's model but the price drops slightly. It's a competitive upgrade, but nothing revolutionary.

And then the complaining starts... What happened to the revolutionary new design? What happened to the brand new product line? We're so disappointed!

Nothing "happened to it". You guys made it all up in the first place. There's no way those expectations could ever have been met.

Every. Single. Time.
Score: 15 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Killa Aaron Avatar
126 months ago
Stupid analyst, one of the reasons why the economy is so messed up, listening to these dummies.
Score: 15 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Simplicated Avatar
126 months ago
so analyst would predict an expectation like say... 10000% growth for apple and when it doesn't meet their expectation, the stock plummet ?
good job analyst ! :rolleyes:

Exactly. These analysts set an impossible-to-meet target and then cause the stock to plummet. That's why I hate these m**********rs.
Score: 8 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Greg. Avatar
126 months ago
[url=https://cdn.macrumors.com/im/macrumorsthreadlogodarkd.png]Image (https://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/25/analysts-share-in-blame-for-apples-stock-drop-says-fortune/)[/url]


The 10% drop (https://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/23/apple-stock-down-10-in-after-hours-trading-amidst-concerns-of-flat-growth/) in Apple's share value following the company's earnings release earlier this week was not entirely the fault of Apple, Fortune suggests, but rather that of overheated analyst predictions.

Image (https://cdn.macrumors.com/article-new/2013/01/fortune-worst.png)
Fortune assessed the accuracy (http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/01/23/apple-earnings-smackdown-q1-2013-analysts/) of the predictions (https://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/23/roundup-of-analyst-expectations-ahead-of-q1-2013-earnings-call/) made by 68 analysts, and found that revenue figures ranged from $51.7 billion to $65.69 billion against Apple's actual performance of $54.51 billion. It produced a ranking of the analysts by the percentage errors in their predictions for both revenue and earnings per share, as well as overall performance metrics.

The analysts responsible for the sometimes wildly optimistic forecasts were not, said Fortune, doing Apple any favors.The Fortune piece wryly observed that 'another way of looking at it is that Apple's analysts did worse than the company this quarter.'

Going forward, Apple has altered the way in which it provides guidance for upcoming quarterly performances. While the company had previously issued single "conservative" guidance estimates for both revenue and earnings that led to the expectation that Apple would always handily beat that number, it is now providing a range of guidance numbers for revenue and other factors.

Apple believes that the range will provide a more realistic idea of where the company expects performance to fall, although it is no longer providing any specific earnings per share guidance and instead allowing analysts to develop their own numbers based on the ranges of revenue, margin, expenses, and tax rate the company expects.

Article Link: Analysts Share in Blame for Apple's Stock Drop, Says Fortune (https://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/25/analysts-share-in-blame-for-apples-stock-drop-says-fortune/)

Having worked as an equity research analyst, I can tell you all of the worst offenders shown here are not real analysts and give the profession a bad name.

Traderhood: Seems to be some dodgy forum for people who are long APPL. No idea how they're getting published like they're official.

Gregg Thurman: Independent, says it all. No real clients to answer to so no pressure to get calls right. Almost definitely long AAPL based on his SeekingAlpha posting history and so clearly adds up to being mega-bullish when he can. He also has a thread of MacObserver where he guesses where AAPL will go based on historical trend data - seems legit?! :rolleyes:

Bullish Cross Research: So just a random blog, with the first title I spot being 'Apple $1000: why it's time to buy'. Scanning through, it's more of the same. I seriously don't get how they get treated like they're official!

Braeburn Group: Familiar as repeat offenders every time when it comes to AAPL estimates. Basically a group of people long AAPL (they disclose this) grouping together to write pro-AAPL stuff. Their current price target is 85% above todays stock price.

Alexis Cabot: Again independent, same story.

Asymco: Based on his twitter, looks like he's stopping making estimates. Convenient.

etc. etc.

Overall it's all a bit of a mess. Getting forecasts right is like throwing darts blindfolded. The old status quo was everyone on the buy-side held AAPL and so the sell-side made bullish reports to please their clients. Apple gave conservative estimates which they then of course beat, stock goes up, everyone happy. Basically Apple have now said this will no longer be the case, so hopefully we'll see accuracy improve and ensure the long-AAPL independents can no longer be praised and given media attention when their above consensus estimates come in.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
jm001 Avatar
126 months ago
What's your point? Both articles were positive for Apple and actually the first article was covered (the data at least) by Macrumors several days ago.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

apple watch ultra hammer test

YouTuber Tests Apple Watch Ultra Durability With a Hammer: Table Breaks Before the Watch

Sunday September 25, 2022 2:27 pm PDT by
A YouTuber has put Apple's claims for the durability of the Apple Watch Ultra to the test by putting it up against a drop test, a jar of nails, and repeated hits with a hammer to test the sapphire crystal protecting the display. TechRax, a channel popular for testing the durability of products, first tested the Apple Watch Ultra by dropping it from around four feet high. The Apple Watch...
AirPods Max 2022 Colors

Ten Things AirPods Pro 2 Tell Us About AirPods Max 2

Saturday September 24, 2022 1:00 am PDT by
Upon the release of the second-generation AirPods Pro, the AirPods Max became the oldest current-generation AirPods product still in Apple's lineup. Introducing several new features like Adaptive Transparency and the H2 chip, the second-generation AirPods Pro may provide some of the best indications yet of what to expect from the second-generation AirPods Max. Almost two years later, rumors...
tim cook spring loaded event

Six Major Products to Expect From Apple in 2023

Sunday September 25, 2022 10:57 am PDT by
As we approach the end of a busy product release season for Apple with only new iPads and Macs left to be announced over the next month or so, we're also setting our sights on 2023. Apple is rumored to have several major products in the pipeline for next year, including new Macs, a new HomePod, a VR/AR headset, and so much more. Other than new iPhones and Apple Watches, which are expected...
Tim Cook Apple Event

Gurman: New iPads and Macs May Be Announced Through Press Releases, No October Event

Sunday September 25, 2022 6:50 am PDT by
Apple may decide to release its remaining products for 2022, which include updated iPad Pro, Mac mini, and 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models, through press releases on its website rather than a digital event, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. In his latest Power On newsletter, Gurman said that Apple is currently "likely to release its remaining 2022 products via press releases,...
apple watch series 7 aluminum colors yellowbg

Don't Want the Apple Watch Ultra or Series 8? Amazon Has Record Low Prices on Series 7 Models This Week

Friday September 23, 2022 6:56 am PDT by
The Apple Watch Series 8 and Apple Watch Ultra are now available to purchase, but if you aren't interested in these updates you can save a lot of money on Series 7 models right now on Amazon. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with Amazon. When you click a link and make a purchase, we may receive a small payment, which helps us keep the site running. The best deals are on cellular...
iphone 14 pro max deep purple

iPhone 15 'Ultra' Could Replace Pro Max Model Next Year

Sunday September 25, 2022 7:02 am PDT by
Apple is gearing up to possibly replace its "Pro Max" iPhone with an all-new "Ultra" iPhone 15 model next year, reliable Bloomberg journalist Mark Gurman said today. Writing in his latest Power On newsletter, Gurman said that for the iPhone 15, Apple is planning a revamped design alongside USB-C and a potential name change. Apple could replace its "Pro Max" branding, which it started to use...
AirPods Pro Second Generation 2 Pairing Feature 1

AirPods Pro 2 Engravings Appear in iOS During Pairing and Connecting

Friday September 23, 2022 9:40 am PDT by
Customers who personalize their second-generation AirPods Pro charging case with an engraving will now have that engraving reflected directly on iOS as they pair and connect their AirPods Pro. Apple allows customers to personalize their AirPods Pro charging case with a special engraving that can include select emojis and Memojis. Unlike before, starting with the second-generation AirPods...
General iOS 16 Feature Yellow

Some iOS 16 Users Continue to Face Unaddressed Bugs and Battery Drain Two Weeks After Launch

Monday September 26, 2022 7:34 am PDT by
Today marks exactly two weeks since Apple released iOS 16 to the public. Besides the personalized Lock Screen, major changes in Messages, and new features in Maps, the update has also seen its fair share of bugs, performance problems, battery drain, and more. After major iOS updates, it's normal for some users to report having issues with the new update, but such reports usually subside in...
14 vs 16 inch mbp m2 pro and max feature 1

New 14-Inch and 16-Inch MacBook Pros Reportedly Launching Later This Year

Friday September 23, 2022 7:08 am PDT by
Apple plans to release new MacBook Pro models in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to supply chain publication DigiTimes. The report does not mention specific models, but it very likely refers to the next-generation 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros given that the 13-inch model was already updated earlier this year. There has been uncertainty surrounding the timing of new 14-inch and...