The 10% drop in Apple's share value following the company's earnings release earlier this week was not entirely the fault of Apple, Fortune suggests, but rather that of overheated analyst predictions.

fortune worst
Fortune assessed the accuracy
of the predictions made by 68 analysts, and found that revenue figures ranged from $51.7 billion to $65.69 billion against Apple's actual performance of $54.51 billion. It produced a ranking of the analysts by the percentage errors in their predictions for both revenue and earnings per share, as well as overall performance metrics.

The analysts responsible for the sometimes wildly optimistic forecasts were not, said Fortune, doing Apple any favors.

The company didn't have a bad quarter. In fact, it posted its best quarter ever … But the stock market is an expectations game and Apple is expected to blow past analysts' estimates, not miss them.

The Fortune piece wryly observed that 'another way of looking at it is that Apple's analysts did worse than the company this quarter.'

Going forward, Apple has altered the way in which it provides guidance for upcoming quarterly performances. While the company had previously issued single "conservative" guidance estimates for both revenue and earnings that led to the expectation that Apple would always handily beat that number, it is now providing a range of guidance numbers for revenue and other factors.

Apple believes that the range will provide a more realistic idea of where the company expects performance to fall, although it is no longer providing any specific earnings per share guidance and instead allowing analysts to develop their own numbers based on the ranges of revenue, margin, expenses, and tax rate the company expects.

Top Rated Comments

madsci954 Avatar
107 months ago
So what they're saying is...

Dear analysts,
Shut the hell up!
Sincerely,
Fortune
Score: 16 Votes (Like | Disagree)
notjustjay Avatar
107 months ago
This shouldn't surprise anybody. We go through this right here on these forums with every Apple product launch.

It's always the same. In the weeks before the product launch, the rumors start flying. The new product will have a brand new design! It'll be thinner! Lighter! With twice the power! And there will be a price drop! And a spec bump across the line! The whole line-up will be updated! No, replaced! No, this is going to be the start of a brand new product category! Here are some product mockups. Here's what these could look like!

Then the discussion starts flying. "Here's what I'd like to see!" People start predicting entire product lines, including estimated pricing, and start drooling about how awesome it's all going to be.

Then the product announcement happens. It's a new version number with a reasonable spec bump. The form factor is the same as last year's model but the price drops slightly. It's a competitive upgrade, but nothing revolutionary.

And then the complaining starts... What happened to the revolutionary new design? What happened to the brand new product line? We're so disappointed!

Nothing "happened to it". You guys made it all up in the first place. There's no way those expectations could ever have been met.

Every. Single. Time.
Score: 15 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Killa Aaron Avatar
107 months ago
Stupid analyst, one of the reasons why the economy is so messed up, listening to these dummies.
Score: 15 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Simplicated Avatar
107 months ago
so analyst would predict an expectation like say... 10000% growth for apple and when it doesn't meet their expectation, the stock plummet ?
good job analyst ! :rolleyes:

Exactly. These analysts set an impossible-to-meet target and then cause the stock to plummet. That's why I hate these m**********rs.
Score: 8 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Greg. Avatar
107 months ago
[url=https://cdn.macrumors.com/im/macrumorsthreadlogodarkd.png]Image (https://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/25/analysts-share-in-blame-for-apples-stock-drop-says-fortune/)[/url]


The 10% drop (https://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/23/apple-stock-down-10-in-after-hours-trading-amidst-concerns-of-flat-growth/) in Apple's share value following the company's earnings release earlier this week was not entirely the fault of Apple, Fortune suggests, but rather that of overheated analyst predictions.

Image (https://cdn.macrumors.com/article-new/2013/01/fortune-worst.png)
Fortune assessed the accuracy (http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/01/23/apple-earnings-smackdown-q1-2013-analysts/) of the predictions (https://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/23/roundup-of-analyst-expectations-ahead-of-q1-2013-earnings-call/) made by 68 analysts, and found that revenue figures ranged from $51.7 billion to $65.69 billion against Apple's actual performance of $54.51 billion. It produced a ranking of the analysts by the percentage errors in their predictions for both revenue and earnings per share, as well as overall performance metrics.

The analysts responsible for the sometimes wildly optimistic forecasts were not, said Fortune, doing Apple any favors.The Fortune piece wryly observed that 'another way of looking at it is that Apple's analysts did worse than the company this quarter.'

Going forward, Apple has altered the way in which it provides guidance for upcoming quarterly performances. While the company had previously issued single "conservative" guidance estimates for both revenue and earnings that led to the expectation that Apple would always handily beat that number, it is now providing a range of guidance numbers for revenue and other factors.

Apple believes that the range will provide a more realistic idea of where the company expects performance to fall, although it is no longer providing any specific earnings per share guidance and instead allowing analysts to develop their own numbers based on the ranges of revenue, margin, expenses, and tax rate the company expects.

Article Link: Analysts Share in Blame for Apple's Stock Drop, Says Fortune (https://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/25/analysts-share-in-blame-for-apples-stock-drop-says-fortune/)

Having worked as an equity research analyst, I can tell you all of the worst offenders shown here are not real analysts and give the profession a bad name.

Traderhood: Seems to be some dodgy forum for people who are long APPL. No idea how they're getting published like they're official.

Gregg Thurman: Independent, says it all. No real clients to answer to so no pressure to get calls right. Almost definitely long AAPL based on his SeekingAlpha posting history and so clearly adds up to being mega-bullish when he can. He also has a thread of MacObserver where he guesses where AAPL will go based on historical trend data - seems legit?! :rolleyes:

Bullish Cross Research: So just a random blog, with the first title I spot being 'Apple $1000: why it's time to buy'. Scanning through, it's more of the same. I seriously don't get how they get treated like they're official!

Braeburn Group: Familiar as repeat offenders every time when it comes to AAPL estimates. Basically a group of people long AAPL (they disclose this) grouping together to write pro-AAPL stuff. Their current price target is 85% above todays stock price.

Alexis Cabot: Again independent, same story.

Asymco: Based on his twitter, looks like he's stopping making estimates. Convenient.

etc. etc.

Overall it's all a bit of a mess. Getting forecasts right is like throwing darts blindfolded. The old status quo was everyone on the buy-side held AAPL and so the sell-side made bullish reports to please their clients. Apple gave conservative estimates which they then of course beat, stock goes up, everyone happy. Basically Apple have now said this will no longer be the case, so hopefully we'll see accuracy improve and ensure the long-AAPL independents can no longer be praised and given media attention when their above consensus estimates come in.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
jm001 Avatar
107 months ago
What's your point? Both articles were positive for Apple and actually the first article was covered (the data at least) by Macrumors several days ago.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Top Stories

samsung experience 1

Samsung's 'iTest' Lets You Try a Galaxy Device on Your iPhone

Thursday April 8, 2021 12:42 pm PDT by
Samsung has launched "iTest," an interactive website experience that's designed to allow iPhone users to test out Android on a Galaxy device, or "sample the other side," as Samsung puts it. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. The iTest website is being advertised in New Zealand, according to a MacRumors reader who came across the feature. Visiting the iTest website on...
sonny 2021 ipad mini pro dummies

Leaked Dummy Units Show iPad Mini 6 With Thick Bezels and Home Button, New iPad Pro Models

Thursday April 8, 2021 2:11 am PDT by
Rumors suggest Apple will release refreshed versions of the iPad mini and iPad Pro models in the first half of this year, potentially as soon as this month, and a new leak today has provided us with a possible preview of what to expect in terms of the devices' overall design and camera prospects. Tech leaker and Apple blogger Sonny Dickson this morning shared images on Twitter showing dummy ...
iMessage Android featured

Apple's Rationale for Not Bringing iMessage to Android Revealed in Legal Documents

Friday April 9, 2021 2:22 am PDT by
It's no secret that Apple sees iMessage as a big enough selling point to keep the service exclusive to Apple devices, however new court filings submitted by Epic Games in its ongoing lawsuit with the company reveal just how Apple executives have rationalized their decision not to develop a version of iMessage for Android. Apple clearly recognizes the power that iMessage has to keep users...
fake airpods 3

Counterfeit 'AirPods 3' Hit the Market Prior to Official Announcement

Friday April 9, 2021 2:45 am PDT by
Apple is expected to launch the third iteration of AirPods in the third quarter of this year. Rumors and reports suggest the new AirPods will feature an updated design more in line with the AirPods Pro, but lacking in "Pro" features such as active noise cancellation. Despite AirPods 3 not yet being officially announced by Apple, counterfeit products of the unreleased earbuds have already hit ...
nba tracking prompt orange

Two-Thirds of iPhone Users Expected to Block Ad Tracking

Friday April 9, 2021 7:19 am PDT by
As many as 68 percent of iPhone users are expected to deny advertisers permission to track them thanks to Apple's App Tracking Transparency feature, in what is beginning to look like a significant blow to the advertising industry (via AdWeek). With the launch of iOS 14.5, apps will have to receive explicit user permission before accessing an iPhone's advertising identifier or IDFA, which is...
iPhone 13 Battery Life Feature

DigiTimes: iPhone 13 Pro Models to Feature 120Hz ProMotion Refresh Rate and 15-20% Less Power Consumption

Friday April 9, 2021 12:52 am PDT by
The two premium "Pro" models of the upcoming iPhone 13 lineup will be equipped with a low-power LTPO display, enabling the iPhones to have a 120Hz refresh rate, according to industry sources cited by Taiwanese publication DigiTimes. According to today's paywalled report, Apple suppliers Samsung and LG Display are in the process of converting parts of their production capacity to produce LTPO ...
ipad pro and macbook pro

iPad and MacBook Production Reportedly Delayed Due to Global Chip Shortage

Thursday April 8, 2021 2:31 am PDT by
Apple is facing a global shortage of certain components for some of its MacBook and iPad models, causing the Cupertino tech giant and its suppliers to postpone production of the products, according to a new report from Nikkei Asia. According to the report, MacBook production is being hindered due to the shortage of chips mounted onto the circuit board before final assembly, which is a key...
ehric

iPhone 12 Mini Missing From Top 5 Best Selling Smartphone List of January 2021

Friday April 9, 2021 4:58 am PDT by
According to market data compiled by Counterpoint Research, Apple's smallest iPhone since the 2016 iPhone SE, the iPhone 12 mini, struggled to obtain a spot in the top five list of best-selling smartphones in January of this year. According to the market data, the iPhone 12 mini came in eighth place for the best-selling smartphone worldwide in the first month of the year. However, the iPhone ...
tmobile 5g modem

T-Mobile Launches Unlimited 5G Home Internet for $60/Month

Wednesday April 7, 2021 2:18 pm PDT by
T-Mobile today hosted an Un-carrier event where the company announced the launch of a a new 5G home internet plan, which is priced at $60 per month and offers unlimited data. The service is available to more than 30 million Americans across much of the United States, including 10 million households in rural areas not typically able to access reliable broadband. Connectivity will be either 4G ...
apple find my network

Apple Announces Find My Network With Support for Third-Party Devices

Wednesday April 7, 2021 10:06 am PDT by
Apple today announced the launch of its Find My network accessory program, which is designed to allow third-party Bluetooth devices to be tracked in the Find My app right alongside your Apple devices. According to Apple, the first accessory companies to take advantage of the new Find My integration include Belkin, Chipolo, and VanMoof, with devices set to be available beginning next week. ...