Google Could Pay Apple $15 Billion to Maintain Default iOS Search Engine Status in 2021, Suggests Analyst

It's no secret that Apple and Google have a considerable monetary agreement that ensures Google's position as the default search engine on Apple's devices. In a new investor note by financial advisor Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi, the analyst claims Google's payment to Apple to maintain the status quo could reach $15 billion in 2021, up from $10 billion last year.

safarisearchengineios
First reported by Ped30, Sacconaghi's note estimates that Google's payments to Apple could continue increasing on-year and approach $18-20 billion in 2022. The Bernstein analyst bases his numbers on Apple's public filings as well as a bottom-up analysis of Google's traffic acquisition costs.

Google's agreement with Apple in the search and advertising markets has been in place for over a decade, but with Google's search engine dominance coming under increasing scrutiny in recent years, Bernstein analysts believe the agreement could face a regulatory risk.

In addition, Yahoo and Microsoft have both been interested in inking a deal with Apple to overthrow Google as the default search engine on iOS devices, and the analysts suggest Google's huge payments to Apple are made to ensure Microsoft doesn't outbid it.

We see two potential risks to GOOG’s payments to AAPL: (1) regulatory risk, which we believe is real, but likely years away; we see a potential 4-5% impact to Apple’s gross profits from an adverse ruling; & (2) that Google chooses to stop paying Apple to be the default search engine altogether, or looks to renegotiate terms and pay less. We have noted in prior research that GOOG is likely paying to ensure Microsoft doesn’t outbid it. That said, with payments likely to approach $18 – $20B in FY 22, it not implausible that Google could revisit its strategy.

Last year, the U.S. Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google, claiming the Mountain View-based company has used anticompetitive and exclusionary practices in the search and advertising markets to maintain an unlawful monopoly. One of the main complaints against Google is its deal with Apple that allows Google to be the default search engine on Apple's Safari browser and other search tools.

Last year, Sacconaghi argued Apple should purchase a search engine outright to put pressure on Google. Sacconaghi's reasoning was that Apple doesn't have many alternatives to Google, with its only leverage being a swap to Bing. However, the analyst also warned that such a move could trigger regulatory oversight that could ultimately block the acquisition, putting Apple in a worse position than before.

Speculation mounted in 2020 that Apple was planning to launch its own search engine, after increased activity was noted from its web crawler, but the uptick was later put down to Apple's efforts to improve Siri and Spotlight search results, and the rumor has so far come to nothing.

Tag: Google

Popular Stories

iOS 26 on Three iPhones

iOS 26's Liquid Glass Design Draws Criticism From Users

Wednesday September 17, 2025 2:56 pm PDT by
It's been two days since iOS 26 was released, and Apple's new Liquid Glass design is even more divisive than expected. Any major design change can create controversy as people get used to the new look, but the MacRumors forums, Reddit, Apple Support Communities, and social media sites seem to feature more criticism than praise as people discuss the update. Complaints There are a long...
iPhone 17 Pro and Air Feature

Two iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone Air Colors Appear to Scratch More Easily

Friday September 19, 2025 10:02 am PDT by
As reported by Bloomberg today, some of the new iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone Air models on display at Apple Stores today are already scratched and scuffed. French blog Consomac also reported on this topic. The scratches appear to be most prominent on models with darker finishes, including the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max in Deep Blue, and the iPhone Air in Space Black. Images Credit: Consoma ...
iOS 26

iOS 26.0.1 Coming Soon, Likely With iPhone Air and iPhone 17 Pro Fix

Thursday September 18, 2025 9:17 am PDT by
Apple is preparing to release iOS 26.0.1, according to a private account on X with a proven track record of sharing information about future iOS versions. The update will have a build number of 23A350, or similar, the account said. It is likely that iOS 26.0.1 will fix a camera-related bug on the new iPhone Air and iPhone 17 Pro models. In his iPhone Air review, CNN Underscored's Henry T. ...
M6 MacBook Pro Feature 1

Apple's Rumored MacBook Pro Redesign: 6 New Features Anticipated

Wednesday September 17, 2025 4:26 am PDT by
Apple in October 2024 overhauled its 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models, adding M4, M4 Pro, and M4 Max chips, Thunderbolt 5 ports on higher-end models, display changes, and more. That's quite a lot of updates in one go, but if you think this means a further major refresh for the ‌MacBook Pro‌ is now several years away, think again. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman has said he expects only a small ...
iOS 26

iOS 26.1 to iOS 26.4: Here Are 5 New Features to Expect on Your iPhone

Tuesday September 16, 2025 11:17 am PDT by
iOS 26 was finally released on Monday, but the software train never stops, and the first developer beta of iOS 26.1 will likely be released soon. iOS 18.1 was an anomaly, as the first developer beta of that version was released in late July last year, to allow for early testing of Apple Intelligence features. The first betas of iOS 15.1, iOS 16.1, and iOS 17.1 were all released in the second ...
Tim Cook Rainbow

Apple Reportedly Plans to Launch These 10 Products in 'Coming Months'

Sunday September 14, 2025 8:45 am PDT by
Apple's annual September event is now in the rearview mirror, with the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, iPhone Air, Apple Watch Series 11, Apple Watch Ultra 3, Apple Watch SE 3, and AirPods Pro 3 set to launch this Friday, September 19. As always, there is more to come. In his Power On newsletter today, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said Apple plans to release many products in the...

Top Rated Comments

macintoshmac Avatar
53 months ago
Privacy is at the heart of Apple. All 15 billion beats.
Score: 44 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Agit21 Avatar
53 months ago
Switched to DuckDuckGo and couldn’t be happier.
Score: 36 Votes (Like | Disagree)
TheAustrianGuy Avatar
53 months ago
As much as I hate Google and especially their business model, its search engine is the only usable one.
Save your money, people will switch to Google search anyway.

I tried Bing, I really tried DuckDuckGo.
It was only one thing: Frustrating.
Score: 25 Votes (Like | Disagree)
vagos Avatar
53 months ago

Speculation mounted in 2020 that Apple was planning to launch its own search engine ('https://www.macrumors.com/2020/08/27/apple-search-engine-speculation/'), after increased activity was noted from its web crawler, but the uptick was later put down to Apple's efforts to improve Siri and Spotlight search results, and the rumor has so far come to nothing.
If we judge by the way Apple music handles search then it's better that they didn't build a search engine after all!
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
sinoka56 Avatar
53 months ago
$15 Billion is the price Apple accepts to sell users' search privacy (of those that don't use other search engines).
Score: 13 Votes (Like | Disagree)
duanepatrick Avatar
53 months ago
It could be the default but I will still stick to Brave browser and duckduckgo as my search engine. :cool:
Score: 12 Votes (Like | Disagree)