More than 100 million people globally now own an Apple Watch, an adoption milestone Apple surpassed this December, according to estimated figures compiled by Avalon's Neil Cybart.
Apple launched its smartwatch in April 2015. Since that time, Cybart's analysis suggests the growth trajectory of the device's user base has been neither constant nor steady, with the 30 million new people that began wearing an Apple Watch in 2020 nearly exceeding the adoption rate of users throughout 2015-2017.
Cybart also looked at Apple Watch as a percentage of the iPhone user base, which he considered a good proxy for the size of the potential Apple Watch market, given that an iPhone is required to use the watch (with a few exceptions, such as Family Setup). Based on his data, Cybart believes that around 10% of iPhone users worldwide wore an Apple Watch by the end of 2020.
Cybart also looked at U.S. adoption of Apple Watch specifically:
Since the U.S. has been an Apple Watch stronghold for years, adoption in the country has trended materially high in comparison to global figures. At the end of 2020, approximately 35% of iPhone users in the U.S. were wearing an Apple Watch. This is a shockingly strong adoption rate that should serve as a wake-up call to Apple competitors interested in the wearables space. Apple Watch turned Fitbit from a household name as the wearables industry leader into a company that will eventually be viewed as an asterisk when the wearables story is retold to future generations.
Overall, Cybart believes the figures show that Apple Watch is Apple's fourth-largest installed base behind the iPhone, iPad, and Mac, and at the current sales trajectory will surpass the Mac installed base in 2022.
Looking further ahead, Cybart believes there is "nothing stopping much higher adoption over time," and predicts that if just 35% of iPhone users around the world one day wear an Apple Watch – the same adoption percentage found in the U.S. – the Apple Watch installed base would exceed 350 million people, which is two and a half times higher than the current user base.
Cybart suggests that Apple Watch could make even more headway if Apple opened it up to non-iPhone users, and suggests that the device's future roles in Apple's product line could include: Expanded identity authentication uses beyond Macs, and most recently, iPhones; advances in health monitoring; and as an ideal location on the body to offload resources linked to face-based technologies like smart glasses.
Apple has never disclosed official sales figures for Apple Watch, and instead lumps the device into its Wearables, Home, and Accessories category (previously known as the "Other" category), which also includes HomePod mini, and all of the AirPods models, including the AirPods Max.
However, based on Apple's last earning's report, the category brought in record revenue in the first fiscal quarter of 2021 (fourth calendar quarter), hitting $13 billion, up from $10 billion in the year-ago quarter, reflecting 30% growth.
Top Rated Comments
First and foremost, I wanted a watch, to tell the time without having to pull out my phone.
I'm already working out 6 days a week so I don't use the watch to encourage me to exercise. It does provide some useful insights to my training around heart rate and recovery. The monthly challenges are also quite fun to do, this has spurred me on a few times to do more. Also I recently started doing yoga on Fitness+ and you need the Apple watch for this. Controlling my music from the watch is better than also reaching for my phone when working out.
Where I also find value in the watch is notifications. If I'm doing something like playing with my son or at the shops and get a tap on the wrist, I can quick glance without taking my phone out. I often leave my phone in a different room at home without the worry of someone needing me.
I used to miss a lot of phone calls when I was out and about, but with the watch this doesn't happen.
So many nice touches to it. Love the silent alarm which only wakes me and ALWAYS wakes me. Love the sleep tracking which proved my major obstacle was getting up for the dog to go out so got a dog hatch. I find I send a lot more audio messages now which my parents love and even once when I fell down it detected it and asked if I needed assistance. Just a great bit of tech. Well done Apple and Clockology allows me to indulge my love for old arcade games too (shameless plug for Clock :) ) Got MK, Outrun, Bubble Bobble and Dragons Lair amongst other all animated)
I can’t believe it’s almost been six years since April 2015 from when the first GEN watch launched and all the advancements that followed.