Kuo: Global iPhone Shipments Could Decline Up to 30% If Apple Forced to Remove WeChat From App Store [Updated x2]

In a worst-case scenario, Apple's annual global iPhone shipments could decline by 25–30% if it is forced to remove WeChat from its App Stores around the world, according to a new research note from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo viewed by MacRumors. The removal could occur due to a recent executive order aiming to ban U.S. transactions with WeChat and its parent company Tencent.

apple wechat
Kuo lays out optimistic and pessimistic scenarios depending on whether Apple is only required to remove WeChat from the App Store in the United States or if the ban would apply to the ‌App Store‌ in all countries.

WeChat is extremely popular with Chinese mobile device users, essentially operating as its own platform on top of iOS and Android for many users, but the app is also widely used around the world and has over 1.2 billion monthly active users. Kuo argues that a worldwide ban on WeChat in the ‌App Store‌ would be devastating as a result.

Since WeChat is very critical to Chinese users, integrating communications, payments, e-Commerce, social software, news reading, and productivity functions, we believe that the move will tank iPhone shipments in the Chinese market. We estimate that global iPhone shipments will decline by 25–30%. Global shipments of other Apple hardware products, including AirPods, iPad, Apple Watch, and Mac, will decline by 15–25%.

Under his optimistic scenario in which WeChat is only removed from the U.S. ‌App Store‌, Kuo predicts global ‌iPhone‌ shipments would be impacted by 3–6% with other Apple products being affected by less than 3%.

Apple does not break down its ‌iPhone‌ shipments by region, but overall, Greater China accounted for a little over 15% of Apple's total revenue during the June quarter, making it a significant part of Apple's business.

Kuo recommends that investors reduce their stock holdings of companies in Apple's supply chain such as LG Innotek and Genius Electronic Optical due to the risks of a WeChat ban. It does, however, remain to be seen what will happen as the prohibitions laid out in the executive order do not take effect until September 20. As a result, there is still time for the order to be clarified, modified, or rescinded.

Update 1: 10:36 p.m. This article originally stated that the 30% decline was in reference to Apple's total ‌iPhone‌ shipments, but the research note is not completely clear as to whether it refers to global or Chinese shipments. Given the Chinese share of Apple's overall sales, it seems more likely to be referring to Chinese shipments.

Update 2: 1:21 a.m. Kuo has informed MacRumors that the 30% decline is in reference to worldwide shipments and has issued an English version of his report that makes this clear.

Note: Due to the political or social nature of the discussion regarding this topic, the discussion thread is located in our Political News forum. All forum members and site visitors are welcome to read and follow the thread, but posting is limited to forum members with at least 100 posts.

Related Forum: iPhone

Popular Stories

Apple Watch Ultra Night Mode Screen

Apple Watch Ultra 3 Launching Later This Year With Two Key Upgrades

Wednesday July 2, 2025 1:13 pm PDT by
The long wait for an Apple Watch Ultra 3 appears to be nearly over, and it is rumored to feature both satellite connectivity and 5G support. Apple Watch Ultra's existing Night Mode In his latest Power On newsletter, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said that the Apple Watch Ultra 3 is on track to launch this year with "significant" new features, including satellite connectivity, which would let you...
iPhone 17 Pro in Hand Feature Lowgo

iPhone 17 Pro Max Battery Capacity Leaked

Thursday July 3, 2025 5:40 am PDT by
The iPhone 17 Pro Max will feature the biggest ever battery in an iPhone, according to the Weibo leaker known as "Instant Digital." In a new post, the leaker listed the battery capacities of the iPhone 11 Pro Max through to the iPhone 16 Pro Max, and added that the iPhone 17 Pro Max will feature a battery capacity of 5,000mAh: iPhone 11 Pro Max: 3,969mAh iPhone 12 Pro Max: 3,687mAh...
iPhone 17 Pro in Hand Feature Lowgo

iPhone 17 Pro Coming Soon With These 14 New Features

Friday July 4, 2025 1:05 pm PDT by
Apple's next-generation iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max are just over two months away, and there are plenty of rumors about the devices. Below, we recap key changes rumored for the iPhone 17 Pro models. Latest Rumors These rumors surfaced in June and July:Apple logo repositioned: Apple's logo may have a lower position on the back of the iPhone 17 Pro models, compared to previous...
iPhone 17 Pro Lower Logo Magsafe

iPhone 17 Pro's New MagSafe Design Revealed in Leaked Photo

Wednesday July 2, 2025 8:37 am PDT by
The upcoming iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max are rumored to have a slightly different MagSafe magnet layout compared to existing iPhone models, and a leaked photo has offered a closer look at the supposed new design. The leaker Majin Bu today shared a photo of alleged MagSafe magnet arrays for third-party iPhone 17 Pro cases. On existing iPhone models with MagSafe, the magnets form a...
airpods pro 2

AirPods Pro 3 to Help Maintain Apple's Place in Earbud Market Amid Increasing Low-Cost Competition

Thursday July 3, 2025 7:25 am PDT by
Apple's position as the dominant force in the global true wireless stereo (TWS) earbud market is expected to continue through 2025, according to Counterpoint Research. The forecast outlines a 3% year-over-year increase in global TWS unit shipments for 2025, signaling a transition from rapid growth to a more mature phase for the category. While Apple is set to remain the leading brand by...
Wi Fi WiFi General Feature

iOS 26 Adds a Useful New Wi-Fi Feature to Your iPhone

Wednesday July 2, 2025 6:36 am PDT by
iOS 26 and iPadOS 26 add a smaller yet useful Wi-Fi feature to iPhones and iPads. As spotted by Creative Strategies analyst Max Weinbach, sign-in details for captive Wi-Fi networks are now synced across iPhones and iPads running iOS 26 and iPadOS 26. For example, while Weinbach was staying at a Hilton hotel, his iPhone prompted him to fill in Wi-Fi details from his iPad that was already...
iOS 18

Apple Releases Second iOS 18.6 Public Beta

Tuesday July 1, 2025 10:19 am PDT by
Apple today seeded the second betas of upcoming iOS 18.6 and iPadOS 18.6 updates to public beta testers, with the betas coming just a day after Apple provided the betas to developers. Apple has also released a second beta of macOS Sequoia 15.6. Testers who have signed up for beta updates through Apple's beta site can download iOS 18.6 and iPadOS 18.6 from the Settings app on a compatible...

Top Rated Comments

Mr. Dee Avatar
64 months ago
All that needs to happen is for people to make the right decisions on Nov 3rd so the nightmare will be over.
Score: 44 Votes (Like | Disagree)
macbeta Avatar
64 months ago
Another case of the Trump overstepping his office, He thinks he's president of the world.
Score: 30 Votes (Like | Disagree)
dingclancy23 Avatar
64 months ago
Wechat is 100% of China. Apple could potentially lose all Chinese iPhone sales without WeChat. That 30% loss is worldwide.

Wechat is not just a messaging app. It is the de facto digital payment system. All personal transactions in China is done with WeChat. Chinese people will not be able to do business properly without WeChat.
Score: 20 Votes (Like | Disagree)
johannnn Avatar
64 months ago
I have tons of Chinese friends here in Sweden. All of them rely on WeChat, and would go to Android the second WeChat disappear.

Why would there be a worldwide ban though? Why the hell would Trump decide which I apps I can use in Sweden?
Score: 17 Votes (Like | Disagree)
dingclancy23 Avatar
64 months ago
Ha if this happens, Apple will allow jailbreaking and let third party Chinese app stores run in iOS 13.7.
Score: 10 Votes (Like | Disagree)
djgamble Avatar
64 months ago
Worth noting, WeChat isn't some 'popular' platform in China. It's pretty much a compulsory app that the government uses to track people's movements/habits and monitor their conversations.

Not having it would severely inconvenience your movements/interactions in China because a lot of public infrastructure relies on it.

So... people wouldn't be dumping Apple by choice because they 'want' WeChat. Rather, their lives would become a lot more complicated.
Score: 9 Votes (Like | Disagree)