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Streaming TV Service Revenue Will Be a 'Drop in the Bucket' for Apple, Even If It Rivals Netflix

Analyst Tim O'Shea recently published a new research report looking at the impact of Apple's upcoming streaming TV service on the company's overall financial earnings (via Business Insider). According to O'Shea, even if Apple priced the service at $15/month (and took a 30 percent cut, while the rest went to video production partners), the resulting revenue would just be "a drop in the bucket."


O'Shea predicted that if Apple could get to 250 million subscribers by 2023, it would earn the company $13.5 billion in revenue and account for about 5 percent of the company's revenue that year. Not only that, but 250 million subscribers in four years is a generous prediction, given it took Netflix 12 years to reach its 139 million subscribers as of January 2019.
"It's going take a long time for this type of service to really move the needle," O'Shea told Business Insider. To figure out the potential of the video service, which Apple is widely expected to launch next month, O'Shea estimated that Apple would charge customers $15 a month and take a 30% cut, giving the rest to video production partners

If the service is extremely successful and attracts 250 million subscribers, it would yield $13.5 billion in revenue for Apple. That's nothing to sneeze at. After all, Netflix's total sales last year were $15.8 billion. But in the context of Apple, such a figure would be just a drop in the bucket.

In fiscal 2018, the company posted revenue of $265 billion. Though O'Shea and other analysts expect Apple's sales to drop sharply this year before slowly recovering in coming ones, $13.5 billion would still represent only a small fraction of the company's revenue.
To be clear, O'Shea isn't predicting that Apple will price its streaming TV service at this level, but the analyst is simply providing a "what if" scenario for the launch of the service. CNBC previously reported that Apple will offer its original TV shows for free to Apple device owners, and new reports have suggested that users will be able to add more premium channels onto the service at a cost.

As part of these recent rumors, it's also been suggested all users will have to pay a monthly subscription to gain access to Apple's original TV shows. In regards to these rumors, a price has not yet been put forward. More clarity should be given to Apple's streaming service on March 25, when the company is expected to host a major event debuting the service and outlining its big features.



Top Rated Comments

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5 weeks ago
He’s not accounting for the hardware sales achieved by retaining people within the Apple ecosystem.

iTunes sold music but above all, it sold iPods and from there, the halo effect lead to new Mac users, impressed with the Apple experience, switching from PC.

That iPod halo effect lead directly to the iPhone whicH is responsible for the world’s first trillion dollar company.
Rating: 15 Votes
5 weeks ago
Monthly fee to watch that Karaoke crap?
Rating: 12 Votes
5 weeks ago

He’s not accounting for the hardware sales achieved by retaining people within the Apple ecosystem.

It would be impossible to get 250 million users with a walled garden approach. This is why Apple is expanding its services to other devices. They know they can't compete in the streaming tv world with a lock-in approach.
Rating: 11 Votes
5 weeks ago
Wish Apple would stop with the side shows and work on the products that could use some updating and lower prices .
Rating: 11 Votes
5 weeks ago
If Apple is true to form then their pricing will be double other streaming services.
Rating: 7 Votes
5 weeks ago
A drop in the bucket for subscriptions is where Tim does his best work.
Rating: 7 Votes
5 weeks ago
A "drop in the bucket" to Apple is an ocean for other companies. Only expected to make $13B or so.
Rating: 5 Votes
5 weeks ago
His math sucks. Revenue would be $45 billion if Apple does a Netflix competitor. This isn’t an App Store 30%-cut revenue sharing model. That said, I don’t think they’ll get 250 million subscribers and I don’t think it’ll be priced at $15/month.

He seems to be confusing two completely different concepts:

* A Netflix-like streaming service where Apple gets all the revenue, but also has a ton of costs associated with producing original shows and licensing third party content; and


* Taking a cut (it probably wouldn't be 30%) for getting people to subscribe to (and billing for) other streaming services, which would be available through the TV app: Showtime/HBO/STARZ/Disney/whatever. (Amazon Prime does this.) There could also be an element of live-channel streaming like Sling/PS Vue/Hulu Live/DirecTV Now, either through pass-through subscriptions or by creating their own similar OTT service.

Can’t believe this guy’s getting paid for his “analysis”. What a mess.
Rating: 5 Votes
5 weeks ago

A "drop in the bucket" to Apple is an ocean for other companies. Only expected to make $13B or so.


No kidding right? Tell the author that “every drop counts”. It’s more high margin revenues for Apple!
Rating: 4 Votes
5 weeks ago

If Apple is true to form then their pricing will be double other streaming services.


Why lie? Apple's other services like Apple Music are not double other streaming services.
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Who would pay $15/mo for carpool karaoke and planet of the apps?


Nobody. Which is why there will be much, much more to the service.
Rating: 4 Votes

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