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Kuo: Apple to Launch Apple Car in 2023 to 2025
Apple will earn its two trillion dollar market cap through its services business, an augmented reality headset, and an Apple Car, according to reputable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who now works for TF International Securities and today sent out a new note for investors outlining products that he expects to see in Apple's future.
According to Kuo, Apple will launch an Apple Car sometime between 2023 and 2025, with the car set to be positioned as "the next star product." Kuo foresees the Apple Car revolutionizing the automobile market much as the iPhone did back in 2007.
Kuo believes there are "huge replacement demands" in the auto sector because it's in the process of being redefined with new technologies. Apple's technology advances, such its work in augmented reality, would redefine cars and "differentiate the Apple Car from peers’ products."
Apple, says Kuo, can do "better integration of hardware, software and services" than current competitors in the consumer electronics sector and potential competitors in the auto sector. Apple's services category will also grow significantly through its entrance into the "huge car finance market" after Apple launches the Apple Car.
Work on Project Titan, Apple's autonomous vehicle program, has been ongoing since 2014, but it was said to be plagued with leadership issues, internal strife, and other problems, with Apple opting to shelve the idea of a car for the foreseeable future.
Hundreds of employees were laid off and leadership was transferred to Bob Mansfield, who transitioned the team's work to an autonomous driving system that could allow Apple to partner with existing car manufacturers. Apple has been testing and developing its autonomous driving software out on the streets of Cupertino in Lexus SUVs outfitted with autonomous driving equipment since early 2017.
Some recent hirings, including that of Doug Fields, who spent five years as Tesla's lead engineer, have, however, led to speculation that Apple may be reconsidering the idea of building its own vehicle. If Kuo is correct, Apple's current autonomous software research could be built into an actual Apple-branded car at some point.
Prior to when the project was shelved, Apple was said to be developing a self-driving electric vehicle. Apple early on met with manufacturers like Magna Steyr and BMW, and explored a range of technologies, including silent motorized doors, car interiors sans steering wheel or gas pedals, augmented reality displays, an improved LIDAR sensor that protrudes less from the top of a car, and spherical wheels, but it's not clear if any of these concepts will be revisited if the car project has indeed shifted back to a full car.
Kuo did not share additional information on the Apple Car project beyond a prospective launch date, but he did also comment on the future of AR, another market where he expects Apple to see significant revenue growth in the future.
Kuo believes that Apple is planning to introduce AR glasses in 2020, expanding on its existing augmented reality market. AR, says Kuo, is the "next-generation revolutionary UI," with Apple planning to redefine the UIs of its existing products by offering an AR experience created by the augmented reality glasses that are rumored to be in the works.
Multiple past rumors have suggested Apple is experimenting with a variety of AR and VR headsets, and augmented reality smart glasses seem to be one of the most persistent rumors. The smart glasses are said to include a dedicated display, a built-in processor, and a new "rOS" or reality operating system based on iOS.
According to Kuo, Apple will launch an Apple Car sometime between 2023 and 2025, with the car set to be positioned as "the next star product." Kuo foresees the Apple Car revolutionizing the automobile market much as the iPhone did back in 2007.
Kuo believes there are "huge replacement demands" in the auto sector because it's in the process of being redefined with new technologies. Apple's technology advances, such its work in augmented reality, would redefine cars and "differentiate the Apple Car from peers’ products."
Apple, says Kuo, can do "better integration of hardware, software and services" than current competitors in the consumer electronics sector and potential competitors in the auto sector. Apple's services category will also grow significantly through its entrance into the "huge car finance market" after Apple launches the Apple Car.
We expect that Apple Car, which will likely be launched in 2023–2025, will be the next star product. The reasons for this are as follows: (1) Potentially huge replacement demands are emerging in the auto sector because it is being redefined by new technologies. The case is the same as the smartphone sector 10 years ago; (2) Apple’s leading technology advantages (e.g. AR) would redefine cars and differentiate Apple Car from peers’ products; (3) Apple’s service will grow significantly by entering the huge car finance market via Apple Car, and (4) Apple can do a better integration of hardware, software, and service than current competitors in the consumer electronics sector and potential competitors in the auto sector.Kuo's suggestion that Apple is planning to launch a full Apple Car is interesting, because rumors have suggested that while that was Apple's initial plan, focus has since shifted to autonomous driving software for cars rather than an Apple-branded and designed vehicle.
Work on Project Titan, Apple's autonomous vehicle program, has been ongoing since 2014, but it was said to be plagued with leadership issues, internal strife, and other problems, with Apple opting to shelve the idea of a car for the foreseeable future.
Hundreds of employees were laid off and leadership was transferred to Bob Mansfield, who transitioned the team's work to an autonomous driving system that could allow Apple to partner with existing car manufacturers. Apple has been testing and developing its autonomous driving software out on the streets of Cupertino in Lexus SUVs outfitted with autonomous driving equipment since early 2017.
Some recent hirings, including that of Doug Fields, who spent five years as Tesla's lead engineer, have, however, led to speculation that Apple may be reconsidering the idea of building its own vehicle. If Kuo is correct, Apple's current autonomous software research could be built into an actual Apple-branded car at some point.
Prior to when the project was shelved, Apple was said to be developing a self-driving electric vehicle. Apple early on met with manufacturers like Magna Steyr and BMW, and explored a range of technologies, including silent motorized doors, car interiors sans steering wheel or gas pedals, augmented reality displays, an improved LIDAR sensor that protrudes less from the top of a car, and spherical wheels, but it's not clear if any of these concepts will be revisited if the car project has indeed shifted back to a full car.
Kuo did not share additional information on the Apple Car project beyond a prospective launch date, but he did also comment on the future of AR, another market where he expects Apple to see significant revenue growth in the future.
Kuo believes that Apple is planning to introduce AR glasses in 2020, expanding on its existing augmented reality market. AR, says Kuo, is the "next-generation revolutionary UI," with Apple planning to redefine the UIs of its existing products by offering an AR experience created by the augmented reality glasses that are rumored to be in the works.
Multiple past rumors have suggested Apple is experimenting with a variety of AR and VR headsets, and augmented reality smart glasses seem to be one of the most persistent rumors. The smart glasses are said to include a dedicated display, a built-in processor, and a new "rOS" or reality operating system based on iOS.
Related Roundups: Apple Car, Apple Glasses
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Top Rated Comments
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15 months ago
Apple Car.
Wi-Fi Only
128 Mile Range $29,900
256 Mile Range $39,900
512 Mile Range $49,900
Cellular Models
128 Mile Range $31,200
256 Mile Range $41,200
512 Mile Range $51,200
Dongle to connect to Tesla Supercharger $3,900
Wi-Fi Only
128 Mile Range $29,900
256 Mile Range $39,900
512 Mile Range $49,900
Cellular Models
128 Mile Range $31,200
256 Mile Range $41,200
512 Mile Range $51,200
Dongle to connect to Tesla Supercharger $3,900
15 months ago
a car that self drives will not be something you own. it'll be a service.
15 months ago
"they're gonna need a bigger apple stores"
does the apple car have a throttling?
is OWC making tyres, windshield wipers and batteries for these apple cars?
15 months ago
I won't hold my breath on anything Ming thinks, we can all equally as well postulate on what might/might not be.
15 months ago
Tesla actually has nothing impressive. What are you so impressed with in their cars? They have meh styling and are plagued with all the problems of an electric car. Short range, long charging times, mods to your home, and few places to charge.
BMW and the other real car companies are going to eat Tesla’s lunch. Tesla is already quite a mess, but Musk is a great sales guy. Investors are buying the dream, but Tesla is losing billions, cannot produce any meaningful amount of cars, and the more they produce, the more they lose.
What impresses me?
Let's see...
Less than 3 seconds to 60mph
300 + mile range
Some of the best safety ratings in the industry
It can park itself and pick you up when you're ready to go
It can drive itself from point A to point B without any driver input
It has zero emotions (I buy 100% wind power for my home)
It looks amazing -- I get this is subjective and you clearly don't agree, but still
Handles that fold back into the door... it's just neat.
Interior tech that is in a class of its own
So, I guess there are a few things....
By the way... Wife test drove a BMW and I've spend a good amount of time in the 7-series. Neither one of us was impressed. Everyone has a different taste. But Tesla is pretty revolutionary by any standard.
Losing money? Amazon lost money for well over a decade. Twitter, Facebook... all lost money for years before becoming profitable. I am not sure this is the way I would measure Tesla's success. They are not perfect, but that wasn't the point.
15 months ago
I won't hold my breath on anything Ming thinks, we can all equally as well postulate on what might/might not be.
Let me correct you -- we CANNOT equally postulate on what may or may not be. Ming Chi Kuo is a very intelligent and seasoned analyst with the best track record of any Apple analyst in the world.
15 months ago
Calling it ...
$599 for the Apple Glasses PER EYE
Fixed that for you.
And expect the car to be remarkably "thin." I picture it being like Rose on that door in Titanic, except with some really little wheels. Then again, if it leans on Apple Maps for self-driving directions, I expect it to be like Rose on the door in Titanic...
[MEDIA=youtube]OGhK4014JNE[/MEDIA]
Preemptive note to the ADF: all JOKES (hopefully).
15 months ago
1987 for the Macintosh? How come? It came out in '84, yeah?
I guess he's not as big an expert as he'd like to think...:D
15 months ago
We're due for a major market correction that will put us in a very deep recession if not depression. Things are already slowing down and people are tapped out, I doubt Apple or any new car company will emerge, its all just talk. Tesla is close to bankruptcy already and might not make it till end of the year the way things are going, unless Apple wants to buy them.
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