Apple Supplier Numbers Suggest Apple Watch Sales Are Below Analyst Expectations

We're all curious about how many Apple Watches Apple has sold, but with the company opting not to break out its Apple Watch sales numbers, all we have to go on are analyst guesses, information distilled from third-party sources, and tidbits of data that Apple has provided.

The latest data that hints at how the Apple Watch has fared comes from The Wall Street Journal, citing shipment information provided by analyst Mark Li from Taiwan's Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc. (ASE) most recent earnings call. ASE is the company that builds the S1 package housing the many chips and sensors used in the Apple Watch.

SB LL MB Apple Watch
An ASE subsidiary reportedly failed to meet its "break-even volume" of two million units shipped per month during the second quarter and does not believe it will meet that target in the third quarter, either. The company's failure to meet this target suggests the Apple Watch "is not selling nearly as well as some analysts expected," says The Wall Street Journal.

"The shortfall of Apple Watch is a disappointment," Mr. Li wrote in a note to clients. "We came in with a low expectation but below break-even still surprised us."

In an interview, Mr. Li said it is unusual for a company like ASE not to reach break-even volume during a typically busy period like the third quarter, especially when dealing with a new product.

He said that he now expects ASE to fall short of his forecast of shipping 18 million units this year, peaking in June.

Ahead of Apple's recent earnings call, analyst estimates of Apple Watch sales during its first quarter of availability ranged from 2.85 million to 5.7 million, averaging out to 4.07 million. After the call, many analysts adjusted their estimates, with the consensus largely changing to between 2.2 and 3 million units sold. Estimates continue to vary, however, with Strategy Analytics suggesting Apple sold 4 million units in a recent report.

During the call Apple CEO Tim Cook said Apple Watch sales "exceeded [Apple's] expectations," despite supply continuing to trail demand at the end of the quarter. "We feel really great about how we did," he said. Apple CFO Luca Maestri hinted current revenue from the Apple Watch was "well over" $952 million, but he also did not provide insight into sales.

In the past, Tim Cook has warned against attempting to infer information from single data points from the company's supply chain due to its complexity.

Related Roundup: Apple Watch 10

Popular Stories

apple tv 4k new orange

New Apple TV Expected Later This Year With These New Features

Saturday July 12, 2025 3:09 pm PDT by
A new Apple TV is expected to be released later this year, and a handful of new features and changes have been rumored for the device. Below, we recap what to expect from the next Apple TV, according to rumors. Rumors Faster Wi-Fi Support The next Apple TV will be equipped with Apple's own combined Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chip, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. He said the chip supports ...
Apple Watch Ultra 2 Complications

Apple Watch Ultra 3: What to Expect

Sunday July 13, 2025 10:30 am PDT by
The long wait for an Apple Watch Ultra 3 is nearly over, and a handful of new features and changes have been rumored for the device. Below, we recap what to expect from the Apple Watch Ultra 3:Satellite connectivity for sending and receiving text messages when Wi-Fi and cellular coverage is unavailable 5G support, up from LTE on the Apple Watch Ultra 2 Likely a wide-angle OLED display that ...
iPhone 17 Pro in Hand Feature Lowgo

iPhone 17 Pro Coming Soon With These 16 New Features

Friday July 11, 2025 12:40 pm PDT by
Apple's next-generation iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max are only two months away, and there are plenty of rumors about the devices. Below, we recap key changes rumored for the iPhone 17 Pro models. Latest Rumors These rumors surfaced in June and July:A redesigned Dynamic Island: It has been rumored that all iPhone 17 models will have a redesigned Dynamic Island interface — it might ...
iphone 16 pro ghost hand

5 Reasons to Skip This Year's iPhone 17 Pro

Thursday July 10, 2025 4:54 am PDT by
Apple will launch its new iPhone 17 series in two months, and the iPhone 17 Pro models are expected to get a new design for the rear casing and the camera area. But more significant changes to the lineup are not expected until next year, when the iPhone 18 models arrive. If you're thinking of trading in your iPhone for this year's latest, consider the following features rumored to be coming...
iOS 26 on Three iPhones

Here's When to Expect the iOS 26 Public Beta

Tuesday July 15, 2025 11:07 am PDT by
Apple previously announced that a public beta of iOS 26 would be available in July, and now a more specific timeframe has surfaced. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman today said that Apple's public betas should be released on or around Wednesday, July 23. In other words, expect the public betas of iOS 26, iPadOS 26, macOS 26, and more to be available at some point next week. Apple will be releasing...
Apple Hornsby

Apple Store Near Sydney Permanently Closing Later This Year

Monday July 14, 2025 6:14 pm PDT by
Apple today said its store at the Westfield Hornsby shopping mall, in Hornsby, Australia, will be permanently closing in October. Apple Hornsby In a statement shared with Australian tech news website EFTM (via Reddit), Apple said that it has decided not to renew its lease at Westfield Hornsby. Apple said all affected retail employees will be given the opportunity to work at Apple's nearby...
iPhone 14 Pro Dynamic Island

iPhone 17 May See 'Significant' Dynamic Island Changes

Monday July 14, 2025 12:11 am PDT by
The iPhone's Dynamic Island experience is set to undergo "significant evolution" over the next few years, according to a new rumor. Earlier this month, a report suggested that the iPhone 17 lineup will feature a redesigned Dynamic Island user interface, but little else was explained about the software changes. Now, the leaker known as "Majin Bu" appears to have corroborated this, commenting ...

Top Rated Comments

farewelwilliams Avatar
130 months ago
we're expecting it to be below our expectations. then another analysts analyzes the analysts expectation of the expectation and realizes it's below the expectation of the expectation.
Score: 47 Votes (Like | Disagree)
RoboCop001 Avatar
130 months ago
Predicts random hypothetical number in totally new category. Upset when hypothetical number hypothetically isn't met. lol.
Score: 42 Votes (Like | Disagree)
nezr Avatar
130 months ago
I returned mine.
$600 - it's an overpriced notification band. NO THANKS!
Score: 39 Votes (Like | Disagree)
DamoTheBrave Avatar
130 months ago
It's too bloody expensive! There are certainly other issues with it too but the one I liked (stainless with links) was $1400. That's more than the top model iPhone 6+.
Score: 31 Votes (Like | Disagree)
bushido Avatar
130 months ago
i wish i never bought mine :-/ early adoper hype was getting the best of me
Score: 27 Votes (Like | Disagree)
markdemaio Avatar
130 months ago
Don't know how many they sold, don't care. Went to the grocery store today and realized after I checked out I'd left my wallet at home and I started to freak a little (the line of people behind me was quite long) and then I saw the NFC symbol on the CC terminal and used Pay on my Watch. Saved the day! Also tracked my walk home, and controlled my music. i LOVE the Watch. Also love the look on peoples faces when I used the Watch to pay. I know that sounds a bit petty, and I'm sorry, but it's true.
Score: 27 Votes (Like | Disagree)