Supply Chain Performance Points to Blockbuster Holiday Quarter for Apple

ipad_mini_retina_hand_snowIn a new research note published today, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brian White shares data from his "Apple Barometer" for the month of November, with strong increases hinting that Apple will see blockbuster performance for the holiday quarter. White's metric, which tracks performance of Taiwanese suppliers known to be heavily reliant on Apple, has seen record performances for both October and November.

With approximately 97% of the sales now accounted for in our Apple Barometer, we estimate sales in November rose by approximately 19-20% M/M and well above the November average of up 6% over the past eight years. As such, we believe this November will prove to be the strongest in the history of our Apple Barometer. [...]

Given the combination of a record October performance and our expectation of record growth in November, our Apple Barometer is on track to report stronger-than- average seasonality in 4Q:13. If we assume an average MoM sales decline of 10% in December, we estimate our Apple Barometer will grow sales by 28% QoQ in 4Q:13, or more than double the average increase of 13% over the past eight years.

White attributes the strong performance by Apple's supply chain to robust demand for Apple products such as the new iPhone and iPad models, with an iPhone production boost to support a launch on China Mobile in the coming weeks perhaps also contributing.

Investor confidence in Apple is also increasing as the company appears poised for a strong holiday quarter. After falling significantly from late 2012 through the early part of this year, Apple's stock has been rebounding during the second half of 2013, setting a new 52-week high yesterday following a roughly 10% surge over the past two weeks. Like White's reasoning for strong Apple Barometer performance, the recent Apple stock spike has coincided with evidence of strong consumer interest in the company's products for the holiday shopping season, as well as the potential culmination of an iPhone deal with China Mobile, the world's largest carrier.

Popular Stories

iPhone Top Left Hole Punch Face ID Feature Purple

iPhone 18 Pro Launching Later This Year With These 12 New Features

Thursday January 15, 2026 10:56 am PST by
While the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max are not expected to launch for another eight months, there are already plenty of rumors about the devices. Below, we have recapped 12 features rumored for the iPhone 18 Pro models, as of January 2026: The same overall design is expected, with 6.3-inch and 6.9-inch display sizes, and a "plateau" housing three rear cameras Under-screen Face ID...
Apple MacBook Pro M4 hero

These 5 Apple Products Will Reportedly Be Upgraded With OLED Displays

Friday January 16, 2026 7:07 pm PST by
Apple plans to upgrade the iPad mini, MacBook Pro, iPad Air, iMac, and MacBook Air with OLED displays between 2026 and 2028, according to DigiTimes. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman previously reported that the iPad mini and MacBook Pro will receive an OLED display as early as this year, but he does not expect the MacBook Air to adopt the technology until 2028 at the earliest. A new iPad Air is...
2024 iPhone Boxes Feature

Apple Adjusts Trade-In Values for iPhones, Macs, and More

Thursday January 15, 2026 11:19 am PST by
Apple today updated its trade-in values for select iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple Watch models. Trade-ins can be completed on Apple's website, or at an Apple Store. The charts below provide an overview of Apple's current and previous trade-in values in the United States, according to the company's website. Most of the values declined slightly, but some of the Mac values increased. iPhone ...
Apple Wallet ID Illinois

Apple Plans to Expand iPhone Driver's Licenses to These 7 U.S. States

Friday January 16, 2026 12:12 pm PST by
In select U.S. states, residents can add their driver's license or state ID to the Apple Wallet app on the iPhone and Apple Watch, and then use it to display proof of identity or age at select airports and businesses, and in select apps. The feature is currently available in 13 U.S. states and Puerto Rico, and it is expected to launch in at least seven more in the future. To set up the...
iOS 27 Mock Quick

iOS 27 Will Add These 8 New Features to Your iPhone

Sunday January 18, 2026 3:51 pm PST by
iOS 27 is still many months away, but there are already plenty of rumors about new features that will be included in the software update. The first beta of iOS 27 will be released during WWDC 2026 in June, and the update should be released to all users with a compatible iPhone in September. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said that iOS 27 will be similar to Mac OS X Snow Leopard, in the sense...

Top Rated Comments

hansonjohn590 Avatar
158 months ago
I know correcting grammar/spelling on MR is considered to be rude, so please don't take offense. It's just that reading this comment made me want to drop-kick a puppy.

It's forest.

Reading this comment makes me want to drop-kick a kitten.

It's one ****ing extra letter, if it bothers you that much just PM the poster instead of making a comment.

Don't people have any common sense these days?
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
lolkthxbai Avatar
158 months ago
But! But...! Investors and Analysts said "Apple is Doomed"!!!
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
proline Avatar
158 months ago
Can't wait to see the haters spin this into bad news. iOS7 and Mavericks are taking Apple to new highs.
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Small White Car Avatar
158 months ago
Hard for me to understand because I'm a long term investor. Apparently most AAPL investors aren't.
Well, the actual problem is that there are two overlapping markets, they just happen to buy the same stocks.

There's individuals like you and me who buy companies with our own money based on how we view the future of those companies. Based on the people I talk to I don't think people like us have done much over the last 4 years. Everyone I know just keeps holding onto their shares.

If we were all there was, it would be a very stable stock.

But we're overlaid with the other kind of investor: The fund manager. This is a guy responsible for billions of dollars of other people's money. Like, say, a pension manager for a city government or large company. It's not his job to get a huge return, but rather to hit a specific (but safe) annual return.

Those are the guys that pumped a ton of money into Apple and shot it up to $700. They're also the guys who moved on at that point because it wasn't going to go much higher. And that was the right move for those guys. They didn't do anything wrong. It's not their job to invest in companies long term, it's their job to protect their own business' money.

But what that does is rock the ocean for you and me. We own sailboats and they're oil tankers. And we're all playing in the same pool. And when they stand up it has a big effect on the water level.
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
brianvictor7 Avatar
158 months ago
Doomed!!!

Apple is Doomed! It is soooo DOOOMED!!! This can't possibly be a good sign! Somehow, it spells CERTAIN DOOM! :D
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
mpantone Avatar
158 months ago
Investors are weenies.

That said, it should be clearly pointed out that Tim Cook says that predicting Apple's future based on the supply chain is unwise.

All MacRumors posts about the supply chain should have this notation.
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)