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iPhone Predicted to Surpass Android Market Share by 2015

Apple's market share of the worldwide smartphone market may have slipped, but a new Yankee Group survey (via AllThingsD) shows some promising data points for the company.

In a survey of 16,000 U.S. smartphone users, the company found 91 percent of iPhone owners plan to purchase another iPhone when it's time to upgrade, while for Android the number is just 76 percent. And, three quarters of those looking to switch from Android plan to buy an iPhone.

Yankee Group believes the incredible customer loyalty that Apple holds will drive market share gains well into the future. The firm predicts that, if these loyalty numbers hold, Apple will surpass Android in U.S. market share by 2015.

Think of the Apple and Android ecosystems as two buckets of water. New smartphone buyers — mostly upgrading feature phone owners — fall like rain into the two big buckets about equally, with a smaller number falling into Windows Phone and BlackBerry buckets. However, the Android bucket leaks badly, losing about one in five of all the owners put into it. The Apple bucket leaks only about 7 percent of its contents, so it retains more of the customers that fall into it. The Apple bucket will fill up faster and higher than the Android one, regardless of the fact that the Apple bucket may have had fewer owners in it to begin with.
The iPhone has traditionally demonstrated strong platform loyalty, and Tim Cook has played up both Apple's ecosystem of interconnected devices and apps, and the iPhone's "halo effect" as significant strengths for the company in recent earnings calls.

Top Rated Comments

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76 months ago
I moved from an iPhone 5 to a Nexus 4. Really glad I did.
Rating: 52 Votes
76 months ago
This reads more like wishful thinking rather than a proper analysis.

Especially if the iOS software and hardware remains stagnant. People may say they plan on switching to iPhone now - but that may change at any point, if the next-gen iPhone does not stay competitive to Android flagships.
Rating: 29 Votes
76 months ago
This article is fantasy for Apple fanbois.

Rating: 29 Votes
76 months ago

iPhone Predicted to Surpass Android Marketshare by 2015

i bet it doesn't
Rating: 22 Votes
76 months ago
This has to be the silliest "projection" I have ever seen in my life.
Rating: 19 Votes
76 months ago

Apple's market share of the worldwide smartphone market may have slipped (, but a new Yankee Group survey ( (via AllThingsD ( shows some promising data points for the company.

I don't understand what relation has a worldwide marketshare data with an USA survey
Rating: 15 Votes
76 months ago
This is completely absurd

I know this is an Apple love-in website, but even if you love Apple you can't look at this atrocity of bad statistics analysis and not shake your head.

In what reality will Apple experience 200% growth while EVERY OTHER MARKET stays largely the same for the next 5 years?

Yes the non-smart phone market is shrinking, but to assume NOBODY will end up in the Android bucket (or even Windows, Blackberry buckets) is just plain ignorance.

All signs currently show that Apple's market penetration has been slowing down, while Android growth has been exploding. Samsung reported record earnings in their phone division while Apple missed targets in the same quarter. How can anybody then assume Samsung will not drive growth in the Android marketplace while Apple doubles their presence in the next 5 years?

You can ask as many people you want about what device they "want" to use, sales figures are what matters.

I'm not here to pound that Android is better than iOS or vice versa, just that the incredulity of this chart is amazing. Even a die-hard Apple fanboy should be shaking their head at this.

BTW I picked up a Nexus 10 and have not looked back to my iPad which hasn't been powered up for 6 months. I love my iPod Touch and still use it daily, and thought I loved my iPad, but honestly the Nexus 10 won me over surprisingly very quickly. So even to assume that Android will not convert SOME Apple users to their market in the next 5 years is ridiculous.

Epic fail in statistics gathering and analysis all around on this one.
Rating: 13 Votes
76 months ago

Android fanboys and Apple haters will be here in droves on this one.

Yap, just like will be here in droves Apple fanboys and Google/Samsung/Android haters.

Stupidity is equally distributed in any group
Rating: 12 Votes
76 months ago

So, are you arguing that Android devices should be counted together or not? Or just when the numbers fit a particular argument?

Probably similar to using numbers that favor Apple and ignoring the ones that don't. For example, Windows 7 sold 700,000,000 copies but the number is irrelevant because everyone is forced to use Windows for work. iPhone sells more than Galaxy because it is a better phone and people like it more so the numbers are important. Apple loses market share but the numbers don't matter because they make more profit. That type of logic?
Rating: 11 Votes
76 months ago

Maybe I sound like an old man because I'm done tinkering, like some of the other commenters have said. But I have more important things to do than fix something that shouldn't have been broken to begin with.

I don't understand those "tinkering", "fix something that shouldn't have been broken" about Android.

What it is broken? Why you have to be tinkering?

My wife, my father, my brother, my brother's wife. They all have Androids and none of them have any problem and use their phones for all they need. And they are the most technological illiterates I know
Rating: 11 Votes

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