Following Apple's announcement earlier today that it took two million iPhone 5 pre-orders in the first 24 hours of availability, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has published a new research note predicting that Apple will achieve sales in the range of 6-10 million units for the opening weekend, with the mid-range number of 8 million units being used for modeling purposes. Munster bases his predictions on the strong pre-order numbers and comparisons to last year's performance for the iPhone 4S.
Given the 2 million pre-orders, we remain confident that Apple can deliver 8 million (range of 6-10 million) iPhones in the launch weekend. The reason we are confident in the 8 million is two-fold. First, initial 24 hour pre-orders for the iPhone 5 were up 100% y/y from the iPhone 4S. Last year, pre-orders accounted for 25% of total weekend launch unit sales. Assuming the same initial pre-order/retail distribution, the pre-order total would suggest 8 million launch units.
Last year, Apple reported that first-day pre-orders for the iPhone 4S "topped one million", with that number translating into over four million units sold in the opening weekend of actual sales.
Munster notes that with Apple's fourth fiscal quarter of 2012 coming to a close at the end of September and the company already quoting shipping estimates of 2-3 weeks for new iPhone 5 pre-orders, some of the launch weekend total may actually bleed over into the following quarter, as Apple recognizes revenue once orders ship to customers.
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