Fortune summarizes a pair of analyst reports out today suggesting that Apple may be experiencing some supply constraints on the iPhone 4S during this holiday quarter. The company has obviously been working hard to demand for the device as shipping estimates through iPhone carrier partners and even Apple itself have at times been lengthy, but beyond high demand the new reports suggest that Apple may be having some trouble meeting its own production goals for the device.
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The first report, from Rodman and Renshaw analyst Ashok Kumar, cites shortages of an unidentified "key component" for the iPhone 4S that is holding back production.
In a note entitled "Limited near-term upside for iPhone," Rodman & Renshaw's Ashok Kumar alerted clients that low yields on an unidentified "key component" is likely to constrain production of the iPhone 4S this quarter.
Including an estimated four million iPhone 4S units that were manufactured but not shipped in the prior quarter, Kumar says that Apple could sell 30 million iPhones this quarter, still a healthy number but leaving Apple without the ability to completely satisfy consumer demand.
The second note comes from Susquehanna Financial's Jeff Fidacaro and similarly cites "supply constraints" as the reason behind his reduction in quarterly iPhone sales of about three million units, moving from 26-28 million units to 23-25 million units. He notes that demand appears to remain strong but that Apple is having a hard time producing enough iPhones to meet that demand.
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As if these analysts are fortune tellers. There is no such thing as an analyst that "sees" anything. They are literally a group of people that sit around and get paid to make guesses. The pride of America.
I sat in on an analysts meeting once. Here's how it's done. Quite simple really.
My analysis indicates that these supply constraints are indicative of a Q1 launch of the next-gen iPhone. I predict that this model may be called iPhone5, with the "5" referring to the predicted (by me) 5-inch screen size. Please visit my website (and don't forget to click on the ads) for in-depth elaboration and pontification on my cursory analysis.
As if these analysts are fortune tellers. There is no such thing as an analyst that "sees" anything. They are literally a group of people that sit around and get paid to make guesses. The pride of America.
The word "yield" indicates it is either a chip or a display. Display is more likely.
One wonders if supply-demand balance is even possible soon with the release date of international occurring before USA S-D balance occurred and all this overlayed on "black Friday" which is now a week-long season as we have cyber Monday and small business Saturday and whatever else somebody has named to try to juice retail sales.
Overall a pretty good problem to have if you are Apple. Just so long as backlog doesn't float past two weeks for very long at a time. Consumers are not very patient these days. The alternatives while of lesser perceived value are increasingly comparable on a variety of levels.
Rocketman
Makes me wonder if the "constraint on a certain component" isn't manufactured by Samsung.
Er wait, analyst or analist...