Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

Noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has issued a new research note today, cutting his shipment estimates for the iPhone XR due to several factors. He believes that some of the decline will be offset by higher demand for iPhone XS and older "legacy" models, but he is still reducing his overall iPhone shipment forecasts by 15–20 percent for the first quarter of 2019.

We have reduced our iPhone XR shipment estimation from 100mn units to 70mn during the new product lifecycle (4Q18–3Q19) for the following reasons: 1) Negative impacts on consumer confidence from the trade war, especially in the Chinese market, 2) expectations from more users for more affordable XR or the dual-camera and narrower bezel design to be provided at the current price level, and 3) competition from Huawei's Mate 20 series. We have reduced our XR shipment estimations for 4Q18, 1Q19, and 2Q19 by 30–35%, 25–30%, and 25–30% to 30–35, 20–25, and 10–15mn units, respectively.

Kuo believes that iPhone shipments for the current quarter will be in the same 75–80 million range he previously predicted, while he has lowered his first-quarter estimate to 47–52 million from a previous range of 55–60 million.

Kuo's prediction is somewhat curious given that he raised his early iPhone XR estimate a little less than a month ago and cited stronger demand than seen for the iPhone 8 last year with the potential for more stable demand over time.

Apple's stock price is down over 4 percent today, outpacing broader market declines and falling to its lowest point since the end of July.

Related Roundup: iPhone XR

Top Rated Comments

(View all)
Avatar
22 months ago
It's simply too expensive. All Apple's phones are now. Here in the UK, wages have been stagnant for years; we simply cannot absorb these 20-25% price increases on top of the exchange rate pressure we're seeing due to Brexit.

These aren't even affordable on contract. Carriers are now touting 3-year plans instead of 2; that's an extra year with the same phone just so you can pay the same monthly charge as before. Meanwhile, Huawei are killing it here. Their phones are gradually appearing everywhere; lots of new Nokias and Samsungs too (as the latter are frequently discounted).

The 1080p LCD-based Huawei P20 Lite (which the XR roughly competes with) is just £229 outright. Is the XR better? Maybe. But it's not £520 better. Even going up tiers to the P20 (£399) and the flagship P20 Pro (£629) make the iPhone prices look ludicrous. I just don't see how Apple is going to sustain these prices against such decent competition.
Score: 119 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Avatar
22 months ago
Why is it whenever apple is expected to sell less items, either Tim Cook or other analysts blame either a trade war, or some other reason, but never say that the consumer is slowly waking up to see that apple's old tech isn't enough to sell as much as it used to?
Score: 74 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Avatar
22 months ago

Uh-oh. Almost looks like the XR is going to be a repeat of the iPhone 5c. I thought people loved phablets?

I think people do, which is why they bought the XS Max - iirc sales numbers were ok/good for that. The issue with this model is that it's just "the cheap version". Apple's lineup should be a $1000 iPhone XS with 128gb of storage, an iPhone SE2 with 64gb of storage, and an iPhone XS Max for $1200 with 256gb of storage (roughly speaking for all). There are a lot of people who want the XS series, a lot of people who want an SE-type phone, but there doesn't seem to be a real need for the XR.

Sometimes I don't think Apple understands their market. Make high-quality, repairable, expensive but not overpriced stuff that makes my life better/easier and you've got me for life. Cancelling the Time Capsule/AirPort Express, not updating the Mac lineup, and jacking up the price of the iPhones isn't a long-term winning strategy.
Score: 51 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Avatar
22 months ago
I think it is somewhat of a comment on the smartphone market overall too. The market is essentially saturated, and people are holding onto devices longer since speed / software compatibility / and features have more or less leveled off.
Score: 43 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Avatar
22 months ago
The Rent is too high.
Score: 41 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Avatar
22 months ago
No wonder! The XS is too big, too heavy und much too expensive. The XR is much too big, much too heavy und too expensive. The XS is much, much too damageable, when falling down.

I am waiting and waiting for a desirable XR-Min, which is as solid as the SE was. My SE fell down several times without any damage. Best iPhone ever. And no, I don't like cases.
Score: 40 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Top Stories

Apple Warns Against Closing MacBooks With a Cover Over the Camera

Friday July 10, 2020 11:12 am PDT by
Apple this month published a support document that warns customers against closing their Mac notebooks with a cover over the camera as it can lead to display damage. Image via Reddit Apple says that the clearance between the display and the keyboard is designed to very tight tolerances, which can be problematic. Covering the camera can also cause issues with automatic brightness and True Tone....

iPhone Users Who Experienced 'Batterygate' Can Now File to Receive Around $25 Settlement From Apple

Monday July 13, 2020 6:50 am PDT by
Earlier this year, Apple agreed to settle a U.S. class action lawsuit that accused the company of "secretly throttling" older iPhone models. Now, eligible iPhone owners are beginning to be notified about their legal rights and options. Under the proposed settlement, Apple will provide a cash payment of approximately $25 to each eligible iPhone owner who submits a claim, with its total payout ...

Apple Moving Forward on Semitransparent Lenses for Upcoming AR Headset

Friday July 10, 2020 7:24 am PDT by
Apple and Foxconn have reached a key milestone in the development of Apple's long-rumored augmented reality headset, with the semitransparent lenses for the device moving from prototype to trial production, reports The Information. Apple is developing the lenses on a single production line at a Foxconn factory in Chengdu in southwestern China, where most of Apple’s iPad production is...

Arm-Intel-PowerPC Universal Binaries Are Possible

Saturday July 11, 2020 1:42 pm PDT by
Casual MacRumors visitors may not realize that we have a very active PowerPC forum where users discuss issues related to PowerPC Macs that have not been produced since 2006. Threads range from hardware upgrades and software options to nostalgia: Photo by AphoticD Apple's recently announced transition to Apple Silicon (Arm) based Macs raised some interesting questions about future support...

Possible 'iPhone 12' Battery Certifications Suggest Lower Capacities Than iPhone 11 Series

Monday July 13, 2020 4:22 am PDT by
MySmartPrice has spotted certifications for three new Apple batteries that it believes could be for the upcoming iPhone 12 lineup, despite them being less capacitive than the batteries in the current iPhone 11 series. The batteries are identified with the model numbers A2471, A2431, and A2466, and appear on Safety Korea, China's 3C, and the Danish agency UL Demko. Apple is expected to...

Leaker: 'iPhone 12 Pro' to Come With 6GB of RAM

Friday July 10, 2020 1:59 am PDT by
Later this year, Apple is expected to release four OLED iPhones in three display sizes, including 5.4, 6.7, and two 6.1-inch models. Rumors suggest the 6.7-inch iPhone and one 6.1-inch model will be higher-end devices, and now leaker @L0vetodream has corroborated previous rumors about the internal specs of Apple's upcoming lineup. Rumors suggest Apple will use 5-nanometer A14 chips in its...

Kuo: Apple Silicon Macs to Include 13-inch MacBook Pro and MacBook Air This Year, 14.1-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro Models Next Year

Friday July 10, 2020 2:58 am PDT by
At last month's WWDC, Apple officially announced that its Mac computers will be transitioned from Intel x86 to homegrown Apple Silicon chips. Apple said it plans to deliver the first Apple Silicon Mac by the end of the year and complete the transition in about two years. According to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, a 13.3-inch MacBook Pro with a form factor similar to the current 13.3-inch...

Google to 'Dramatically' Improve Chrome Impact on Mac Battery Life

Sunday July 12, 2020 1:56 pm PDT by
Google will address long-standing battery life issues, particularly on Mac devices, reports The Wall Street Journal. Chrome will improve "tab throttling" by better prioritizing active tabs and limiting resource drain from tabs open in the background. This is said to have a "dramatic impact on battery and performance." Google has reportedly been performing early tests on Mac laptops in...

Top Stories: iOS 14 Public Beta, iPhone 12 Size Comparison, 14-Inch MacBook Pro Rumors

Saturday July 11, 2020 6:00 am PDT by
After one round of developer beta testing, Apple unleashed iOS and iPadOS 14 to a wider audience this week, opening it up to members of the public beta program. There are lots of changes and new features to check out, but as with any beta, be careful about installing it on your main devices. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Other major stories this week included our ...

Apple Shares Humorous 'Working-From-Home Thing' Video

Monday July 13, 2020 9:31 am PDT by
Apple today shared a funny video focused on the problems that people working from home have to deal with, including noisy children, chaotic schedules, communication issues, and more. The video focuses on showing off Apple products and their capabilities that can be useful when working from home, such as the ability to scan a document with an iPhone, mark up a PDF, Siri Reminders, and more.The...