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Kuo Predicts 'Better Than Expected' Replacement Demand for iPhone XR, Raises Shipment Forecasts

Demand for the iPhone XR will be higher than demand for the iPhone 8 last year, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reiterated in a note to investors this morning.

Kuo is predicting better than expected replacement demand for iPhone XR along with improved supply starting in October, leading him to revise his predicted shipment estimates.


Apple is now expected to ship 36 to 38 million iPhone XR units in the fourth quarter of 2018, up 10 percent from an original estimate of 33 to 35 million units.

As he said last week in a note about the XR driving upgrades in China, Kuo is expecting the iPhone XR to outsell the iPhone 8 because of its larger display, longer battery life, dual-SIM support, and new form factor design.

With the revised XR shipment expectations, Kuo believes Apple will ship a total of 75 to 80 million iPhone units during 4Q2018.

iPhone XR shipments are also expected to be up in the first quarter of 2019, a historically slow quarter for Apple. Quarter over quarter decline is expected to be at 25 to 30 percent instead of 45 to 50 percent for iPhone 8.
We expect XR shipments to beat low seasonality in 1Q19. We forecast that XR shipments in 1Q19 will decline 25-30% QoQ to 27-30mn units, and we attribute the lower XR shipment QoQ decline, compared with general consumer electronics and smartphones' 30-40% QoQ decline, to better replacement demand and production delay. Also, XR's shipment QoQ decline in 1Q19 will be better than the iPhone 8 series' 45-50% in 1Q18.
Total iPhone shipments in the first quarter of 2019 are expected to grow by 10 percent year-over-year to 55 to 60 million units thanks to the strength of the iPhone XR. Shipment allocations of XS, XR, and legacy models will be at 35 percent, 50 percent, and 15 percent respectively.

Apple's iPhone XR will be available for pre-order at 12:01 a.m. Pacific Time on Friday, October 19, with an official launch to follow on Friday, October 26. Apple's colorful new iPhone will be priced starting at $749 for the entry-level model.

Related Roundup: iPhone XR
Buyer's Guide: iPhone XR (Buy Now)


Top Rated Comments

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5 weeks ago

Demand for the iPhone XR will be higher than demand for the iPhone 8 last year, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reiterated in a note to investors this morning.

Makes sense; the iPhone XR isn't as visually far apart from the other iPhones as the 8 was from the X. Most customers will probably just notice it's $250 cheaper and won't really care about OLED and the… the… even I'm forgetting the other features it lacks.
Rating: 11 Votes
5 weeks ago

And people forget the iPad Pro (fantastic screen) is 264PPI. I couldn't see a pixel if I tried.

Same goes for my MacBook Pro Retina.
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This phone will do very well. More than a few I know have spoken of getting the Xr for their teenagers and/or other family members. Funny how $749 is now thought of as easily affordable for purchasing multiple additional devices. When comparing against $999-$1499, yes, psychologically, it would definitely look that way.

Smart Apple, smart.

You're damn straight. Apple's genius move wasn't getting a few dummies to buy 1000+ dollar phones. It was using 1000+ dollar phones to convince other dummies (me) to buy 750 dollar phones thinking they were getting a good deal.
Rating: 10 Votes
5 weeks ago
The XR is going to be a monster seller this Friday and for the holidays.
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Problem for me is, it has the resolution of an iPhone 4.
Pretty pathetic.


No. Once again, for the umpteenth time, no, it does not have the same resolution.

iPhone 4: 960x640
iPhone XR: 1792x828
Rating: 7 Votes
5 weeks ago
Buh buh but the resolution and PPI!

Can't wait to get this next week.
Rating: 7 Votes
5 weeks ago
Xr is going to sell insanely well -- better than the Xs models by far
Rating: 5 Votes
5 weeks ago
What Ming-Chi Kuo say about October event to announce new Mac Mini?
Rating: 4 Votes
5 weeks ago

The price difference actually isn’t huge ($750 and $999 are both “about $1000” in my books) and most people pay monthly, so the difference is tiny. Given that, I’ll be surprised if the XR is a clear winner over the XS/Max. The low resolution, low pixel density, lack of OLED, lack of 3D Touch and no telephoto lens all add up. It also appears to be thicker and with bigger bezels. Nah.


$750 is literally 3/4 of $1000. It's a whole quarter off.
Rating: 4 Votes
5 weeks ago

Well, many folks on MacRumors forum thinks XR is "doomed, doomed I tell ya" due to low resolution screen (ironically enough, only the "green" pixels on XS and XS Max have higher resolution).


They have been claiming that Apple is doomed for every conceivable reason since time immemorial.

I believe Apple’s next quarterly earnings report is on 1 Nov. Anyone cares to bet against Apple this time round?
Rating: 2 Votes
5 weeks ago

Single camera and lower screen resolution.

I don’t think most people would notice that the camera has only one lens or that the screen resolution isn’t as high. Maybe if they are trying to view 4K video or something similar. Being mid $700 rather than $900 plus for the Xs line probably is a bigger deal than anything that the phone doesn’t have, especially since the processor is the same as the top of the line phones.

And yet, Apple customers have proven they either (or all) that they:

1) Don't look at price.
2) Only look at the monthly price, so increases aren't very significant on a per month basis.
3) Want iOS at any price because they don't want to use Android.

I don't know why people keep talking about price as if it's this huge factor. I don't think it is and the numbers show people are perfectly willing to spend more than $1,000 on their iPhone. The iPhone is underpriced if anything. Apple has huge pricing power if they want to use it.
Rating: 2 Votes
5 weeks ago
Problem for me is, it has the resolution of an iPhone 4.
Pretty pathetic.
Rating: 2 Votes

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