Kuo: Apple Has Opportunity With iPhone XR in China as Chinese Rivals Face 'Lower Than Expected' Demand

In a research note obtained by MacRumors, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said cumulative smartphone shipments from four major brands on the Chinese market, including Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi, declined 10 percent on a year-over-year basis during China's Golden Week, a national holiday and major sales period.

iphone xr product red

iPhone XR in (PRODUCT)RED

Kuo, writing on behalf of research firm TF International Securities, said the estimated 6.5-7 million shipments during Golden Week were "lower than expected." He called Huawei the "major winner" as the only brand with a year-over-year increase in shipments during the October 1-7 holiday.

The well-known analyst attributed the year-over-year decline to a lack of innovative selling points among Chinese-brand smartphones. Kuo is positive on the trends of triple-lens cameras and fingerprint sensors under the display in smartphones, but said only limited models currently support both functions.

Kuo also cautioned that the US-China trade war "may be affecting consumer confidence, which makes the replacement cycle longer."

A third reason is that some consumers—particularly existing iPhone owners—will opt for more affordable legacy iPhone models or wait for the iPhone XR, according to Kuo, who expects replacement demands for the iPhone XR in China will be better than last year's demand for the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus.

Extrapolating from Golden Week, Kuo said smartphone shipments in China in 2018 as a whole may be "lower than expected." He estimates shipments may decline 10-15 percent to 410 million units on a year-over-year basis.

Chinese brands have to rely on overseas markets for further growth, according to the research note, shared with investors Thursday. Kuo remains confident about Huawei's future shipment momentum because the brand has "the best competitiveness among Chinese brands in overseas markets," the note said.

As for Apple, the iPhone XR represents an opportunity for the company to increase its market share and revenue in the Greater China region, where it has faced increasing competition from the likes of Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi.

With a lower starting price of $749 in the United States, the iPhone XR lacks some of the bells and whistles of the flagship iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, including an OLED display and glass rear casing, but it has many identical tech specs and longer battery life than both of the more expensive models.

iPhone XR pre-orders begin Friday, October 19 in more than 50 countries, followed by in-store availability on Friday, October 26.

Related Forum: iPhone

Popular Stories

iOS 26

When Will Apple Release iOS 26.2?

Monday December 1, 2025 4:37 pm PST by
We're getting closer to the launch of the final major iOS update of the year, with Apple set to release iOS 26.2 in December. We've had three betas so far and are expecting a fourth beta or a release candidate this week, so a launch could follow as soon as next week. Past Launch Dates Apple's past iOS x.2 updates from the last few years have all happened right around the middle of the...
Sad Siri Feature

Apple AI Chief John Giannandrea Retiring After Siri Delays

Monday December 1, 2025 2:16 pm PST by
Apple AI chief John Giannandrea is stepping down from his position and retiring in spring 2026, Apple announced today. Giannandrea will serve as an advisor between now and 2026, with former Microsoft AI researcher Amar Subramanya set to take over as vice president of AI. Subramanya will report to Apple engineering chief Craig Federighi, and will lead Apple Foundation Models, ML research, and ...
Netflix Smaller 4

Netflix Kills Casting From Its Mobile App to Most Modern TVs

Monday December 1, 2025 4:36 am PST by
Netflix has quietly removed the ability to cast content from its mobile apps to most modern TVs and streaming devices, including newer Chromecast models and the Google TV Streamer. The change was first spotted by users on Reddit and confirmed in an updated Netflix support page (via Android Authority), which now states that the streaming service no longer supports casting from mobile devices...
maxresdefault

iPhone Fold: Launch, Pricing, and What to Expect From Apple's Foldable

Monday December 1, 2025 3:00 am PST by
Apple is expected to launch a new foldable iPhone next year, based on multiple rumors and credible sources. The long-awaited device has been rumored for years now, but signs increasingly suggest that 2026 could indeed be the year that Apple releases its first foldable device. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Below, we've collated an updated set of key details that ...
Cyber Week Deals 2025

Best Cyber Week Apple Deals Include Big Discounts on AirPods, Apple Watch, and More

Sunday November 30, 2025 7:33 am PST by
Cyber Week is here, and you can find popular Apple products like AirPods, iPad, Apple Watch, and more at all-time low prices. In this article, the majority of the discounts will be found on Amazon. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these vendors. When you click a link and make a purchase, we may receive a small payment, which helps us keep the site running. Specifically,...
Touchscreen MacBook Feature

Here Are the Four MacBooks Apple Is Expected to Launch Next Year

Monday December 1, 2025 5:00 am PST by
2026 could be a bumper year for Apple's Mac lineup, with the company expected to announce as many as four separate MacBook launches. Rumors suggest Apple will court both ends of the consumer spectrum, with more affordable options for students and feature-rich premium lines for users that seek the highest specifications from a laptop. Below is a breakdown of what we're expecting over the next ...
studio display purple february

M5 iPad Pro Could Hint at New Studio Display Feature

Sunday November 30, 2025 10:30 am PST by
The updated specs of the M5 iPad Pro may point toward a major new feature for Apple's next-generation Studio Display expected in early 2026. Apple's latest iPad Pro debuted last month and contains one display-related change that stands out: it can now drive external monitors at up to 120Hz with Adaptive Sync. The feature should deliver lower latency, smoother motion, and fewer visual...
iPhone Pocket Short

iPhone Pocket is Now Completely Sold Out Worldwide

Tuesday November 25, 2025 7:16 am PST by
Apple recently teamed up with Japanese fashion brand ISSEY MIYAKE to create the iPhone Pocket, a limited-edition knitted accessory designed to carry an iPhone. However, it is now completely sold out in all countries where it was released. iPhone Pocket became available to order on Apple's online store starting Friday, November 14, in the United States, France, China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, ...
ios 18 to ios 26 upgrade

Apple Pushes iPhone Users Still on iOS 18 to Upgrade to iOS 26

Tuesday December 2, 2025 11:09 am PST by
Apple is encouraging iPhone users who are still running iOS 18 to upgrade to iOS 26 by making the iOS 26 software upgrade option more prominent. Since iOS 26 launched in September, it has been displayed as an optional upgrade at the bottom of the Software Update interface in the Settings app. iOS 18 has been the default operating system option, and users running iOS 18 have seen iOS 18...
iphone 17 cyber

iPhone 17 Demand Is Breaking Apple's Sales Records

Tuesday December 2, 2025 9:44 am PST by
Apple's iPhone 17 lineup is selling well enough that Apple is on track to ship more than 247.4 million total iPhones in 2025, according to a new report from IDC. Total 2025 shipments are forecast to grow 6.1 percent year over year due to iPhone 17 demand and increased sales in China, a major market for Apple. Overall worldwide smartphone shipments across Android and iOS are forecast to...

Top Rated Comments

ChrisCW11 Avatar
93 months ago
If the Chinese market is disappointed with the "innovation" of current phone offerings, certainly the iPhone XR is not offering anything more then what companies like Xiaomi and Oppo have been offering for a year or more, also considering the XR will probably still be more expensive then the other Chinese flagships and is just a slightly retooled iPhone 8 with a notch.

I think its just a poor year for cellphone innovation as they are on the tock cycle where there is nothing really new to offer from all phone companies. Last year it was the notch and bezel free screens which drove up sales, this year its a second generation of this style of phone design and not much more is different across the board. Even the Xs phones are kind of lacking in appeal after the first burst of sales wear off.
Score: 9 Votes (Like | Disagree)
AngerDanger Avatar
93 months ago
A third reason is that some consumers--particularly existing iPhone owners--will opt for more affordable legacy iPhone models or wait for the iPhone XR, according to Kuo, who expects replacement demands for the iPhone XR in China will be better than last year's demand for the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus.
*grips iPhone SE* Yeah, I can understand that… *sniffles*



Attachment Image
Score: 8 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Shiro_Simba Avatar
93 months ago
It's nice to see Apple became a trillion dollar company but profit on top of everything is getting ridiculous. I know you got to make investors happy and keep up Wall Street but how much more money these rich people need? I use to hear Steve Jobs words of making a difference on people's lives help mold for a better future. As he said as the technology matures and materials getting cheaper we see prices goes down but he also explains about why initial prices is high due to R&D and promises that eventually prices goes down for the upcoming generation. Now we only see prices are lower if you decide to buy the 2 year old device straight from Apple. I think it's time for Apple to return the favor to people that put them on the top and stop taking advantage of their customers because we still like them. Just sayin!
Jobs would fight the board about pricing , cause in his vision , the products were suppose to benefit all users , not just the elite . That is the problem with Cook, his job is to raise profits , he has no vision for Apple like jobs , slowly Apple is becoming an exclusive brand for the rich. Which is fine , but that was not Jobs vision, he genuinely wanted his products to improve everyone’s lives and tried to keep prices at that level.
Score: 7 Votes (Like | Disagree)
repoman016 Avatar
93 months ago
I'll stick with my 6s. I'm not spending 1000+ so i can have more emoji's
Score: 6 Votes (Like | Disagree)
kaycrystal626 Avatar
93 months ago
iPhone is just getting too expensive. If I want a iPhone Xs, mostly like I have to get 256GB, and it will cost over $1300 after tax. It's like price of a Macbook Pro.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
thebeans Avatar
93 months ago
('https://www.macrumors.com/2018/10/11/kuo-iphone-xr-to-drive-upgrades-in-china/')


In a research note obtained by MacRumors, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said cumulative smartphone shipments from four major brands on the Chinese market, including Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi, declined 10 percent on a year-over-year basis during China's Golden Week, a national holiday and major sales period.


iPhone XR in (PRODUCT)RED

Kuo, writing on behalf of research firm TF International Securities, said the estimated 6.5-7 million shipments during Golden Week were "lower than expected." He called Huawei the "major winner" as the only brand with a year-over-year increase in shipments during the October 1-7 holiday.

The well-known analyst attributed the year-over-year decline to a lack of innovative selling points among Chinese-brand smartphones. Kuo is positive on the trends of triple-lens cameras and fingerprint sensors under the display in smartphones, but said only limited models currently support both functions.

Kuo also cautioned that the US-China trade war "may be affecting consumer confidence, which makes the replacement cycle longer."

A third reason is that some consumers--particularly existing iPhone owners--will opt for more affordable legacy iPhone models or wait for the iPhone XR, according to Kuo, who expects replacement demands for the iPhone XR in China will be better than last year's demand for the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus.

Extrapolating from Golden Week, Kuo said smartphone shipments in China in 2018 as a whole may be "lower than expected." He estimates shipments may decline 10-15 percent to 410 million units on a year-over-year basis.

Chinese brands have to rely on overseas markets for further growth, according to the research note, shared with investors Thursday. Kuo remains confident about Huawei's future shipment momentum because the brand has "the best competitiveness among Chinese brands in overseas markets," the note said.

As for Apple, the iPhone XR represents an opportunity for the company to increase its market share and revenue in the Greater China region, where it has faced increasing competition from the likes of Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi.

With a lower starting price of $749 in the United States, the iPhone XR lacks some of the bells and whistles of the flagship iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, including an OLED display and glass rear casing, but it has many identical tech specs and longer battery life than both of the more expensive models.

iPhone XR pre-orders begin Friday, October 19 in more than 50 countries ('https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2018/09/apple-introduces-iphone-xr/'), followed by in-store availability on Friday, October 26.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple Has Opportunity With iPhone XR in China as Chinese Rivals Face 'Lower Than Expected' Demand ('https://www.macrumors.com/2018/10/11/kuo-iphone-xr-to-drive-upgrades-in-china/')
“...... the iPhone XR lacks some of the bells and whistles of the flagship iPhone XS ('https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-xs/') and iPhone XS Max, including an OLED display and glass rear casing.....”. Uhhh..the XR does have a glass back. So....
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)