Apple today updated its investor relations page to announce that it will share its earnings results for the first fiscal quarter of 2018 on Thursday, February 1.
The earnings report will give us our first real look at iPhone X sales, as well as sales of the iPhone 8 and the iPhone 8 Plus throughout the holiday quarter. The iPhone X did not go on sale until November 3, and it was not included in Apple's fourth quarter earnings report.
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Guidance for the first fiscal quarter of 2018 includes expected revenue of $84 to $87 billion and gross margin between 38 and 38.5 percent. It will be a record setting quarter even at the low end of the guidance range, as Apple saw $78.4 billion in revenue in Q1 2017.
Apple's quarterly earnings statement will be released at 1:30 p.m. Pacific/4:30 p.m. Eastern, with a conference call to discuss the report taking place at 2:00 p.m. Pacific/5:00 p.m. Eastern. MacRumors will provide coverage of both the earnings release and conference call on February 1.
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(View all)But I’ll be listening out for a few things:
1. iPhone X supply/demand
2. Services revenue
3. New US tax law and cash repatriation
4. Impact of batterygate and how it affects software updates going forward
What will be telling is the next quarter's estimates. Initial demand for the X has been met. The anticipated product shortages through the 2nd quarter aren't happening. I'm thinking demand for a $1,000 phone that appeals to people with discretionary income is going to be very heavily weighted toward the introduction date. You will still have the normal consumer purchases during the remainder of the year but I don't think the iPhone X will make up a significant percentage of sales.
My baseless prediction for 2nd quarter revenue estimates is $52 - $54 billion as the iPhone X supercycle plays out, unit sales continue to plateau at around 225 million annually, and the lower cost iPhone 7 models account for a higher percentage of the remaining sales until next year's models come out in September.
I'm betting the iPhone numbers might not be as high as expected, but raw cash coming in from the App Store will be much higher than expected.
I'm not an analyst, but my guesses have a probability of being correct. :)
80 million iPhone units sold
65 billion iPhone revenue
90 billion total revenue