Estimated Supply of iPhone X on Launch Day Revised Down to Just Over 12 Million Units

When the iPhone X launches on November 3, initial supply of the smartphone available to purchase could be limited to around 12 million units, according to Jeff Pu, an analyst at Taipei-based Yuanta Investment Consulting.


Pu told Nikkei Asian Review that Foxconn likely manufactured around 2 million iPhone X devices in September. He said the number should increase to 10 million in October, and reach a total of 40 million by the end of the year, down from his original forecast of 45 million units earlier this year.

If accurate, that means there would be just over 12 million iPhone X handsets available to purchase when the device launches in under six weeks.

The report corroborates that the TrueDepth camera and facial recognition system is a major bottleneck for iPhone X production, as KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said in a research note earlier this week.

Two executives working for iPhone suppliers told Nikkei Asian Review that 3-D sensor part makers are still struggling to reach a satisfactory level of output, and to boost their yield rate. This rate measures the number of usable or saleable units from a batch of components or final products produced. A low yield rate is likely to hurt a company's margins and bottom line.

Reports about limited availability surrounding an iPhone launch surface every year, but rumors suggest the iPhone X might be even harder to get your hands on than a 256GB iPhone 7 Plus in Jet Black last year.

Top Rated Comments

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39 months ago
Ok, 12 million doesn't sound as bad after all the talk about 10,000 units/day and multiple issues with manufacturing.
Score: 23 Votes (Like | Disagree)
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39 months ago
Limit launch to the great United States of America only!
Score: 18 Votes (Like | Disagree)
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39 months ago

The sensor housing is too ugly for me to order one.

I'm notch surprised...
Score: 16 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Avatar
39 months ago
"Just" over 12 million units?

Look at the first weekend iPhone sales stats. (Apple didn't release the numbers for the 7)



For the 2017 iPhones I would have expected something like 15M for the first weekend, so 12M for the X and a few million iPhone 8 sales would probably add up to a number close to that.

Of course the demand for the X may well exceed 12M at launch, but I don't see it as a catastrophic supply constraint that some seem to imply since the numbers seem to be in line with previous years. The question will be more about how fast they can replenish their stock supply after the launch.
Score: 14 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Avatar
39 months ago
Don’t worry MR, I will be sure to post how much I’m enjoying mine !
Score: 13 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Avatar
39 months ago
Wasn't Cook supposed to be supply channel expert? I'm not understanding why Apple continually has supply problems, though with the X, it seems more acute.
Score: 13 Votes (Like | Disagree)

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