iPhone 7 Demand Has 'Peaked' as Shipments Forecasted to Decline Significantly Over Next Two Months

iphone7-plus-jetblack-select-2016Just two months after the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus launched, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes demand for the smartphones has "peaked" in line with a significant monthly shipment decline starting in November.

Kuo predicted Apple's overseas suppliers will revise down their iPhone shipments by 5-15% in November-December due to lower-than-expected demand stemming from a lack of significant improvements.

As the 4.7-inch iPhone 7, which accounts for a higher share of iPhone shipments, is in stock in the main global markets, we believe overall iPhone shipments have peaked. We think iPhone shipment forecasts will be revised down due to: (1) lower-than-expected demand due to a lack of spec surprises in the 4.7-inch iPhone 7; and (2) shorter times for delivering online orders of 5.5-inch iPhone 7 Plus, which implies slowing demand. We note that the out-of-stock phenomenon also results from fixed capacity, and is not only due to robust demand.

In a research note obtained by MacRumors, Kuo noted that the out-of-stock phenomenon that typically follows a new iPhone launch results from fixed capacity, and is not only due to robust demand. Kuo reiterated his forecast of a possible year-over-year iPhone shipment decline in the first quarter of 2017 due to the lower-than-expected demand and fierce competition in China.

Top Rated Comments

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49 months ago
Cool is out, practical is in for me. When my current iPhone fails or otherwise does not meet my everyday needs, time to buy a new. Until then, my cool days will be less often.
Score: 10 Votes (Like | Disagree)
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49 months ago
This is just how it happens in the Apple world - more people buy iPhones the moment they're released. Other non-iPhones are usually bought on impulse or when someone's previous phone dies.
Score: 6 Votes (Like | Disagree)
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49 months ago
iPhone 7… The "courage" to wait until next year.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
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49 months ago
I was tempted, but I honestly said to myself, do I really need this for what I do? The Plus model would have been my choice, but I honestly didn't see the benefit. I settled for a 2 TB external drive so I could backup my MacBook Pro I purchased last year. Maybe next year I might consider it when its discounted with the launch of the iPhone 8.
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
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49 months ago
Does this mean I will actually be able to walk into my local Apple store and buy one, LOL
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
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49 months ago
Faster than any other tech stock? I think not. Amazon was $844 5 weeks ago, $718 today. GOOGL down $80 per share since 10/25. Apple down $13 over the same time period. Apple's weakness has a lot more to do with Trump's threat of Chinese trade tariffs and ban on production outsourcing than it has to do with iPhone sales. By the way, neither of these concerns will ever amount to anything. Trump cannot force Apple to move production back to USA and he cannot, without wrecking our economy, impose 45% tariffs on Chinese imports. Apple investors should instead be paying attention to Trump's willingness to back a tax rate that will allow Apple and other techs to repatriate the trillions in overseas cash.
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)

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