10% of Consumers 'Very Likely' to Buy a Smartwatch in 2015, Suggesting 24M Apple Watches

According to a new survey conducted by analysts at UBS, interest in the smartwatch market is continuing to grow ahead of the Apple Watch launch early next year. Of the 4,000 respondents asked to partake in the survey across four different countries, about 10 percent cited that they are "very likely" to buy a smartwatch in the next year. Based on projections of Apple's iPhone sales and the current installed base of iPhones compatible with the Apple Watch, the analysts predict Apple will sell 24 million Apple Watches within the first nine months.

Figure 10 indicates that 10% of respondents (401 out of 4,000) are very likely and 17% (682 out of 4,000) somewhat likely to buy a smartwatch in the next 12 months. That is a three-fold increase vis-à-vis the 386 respondents claiming to already own a smartwatch and a four-fold increase if we assume that around one-third of the currently owned smartwatches are actually fitness bands.

apple_watch_ubs
Based on an estimate of 240 million iPhones compatible with Apple Watch being in customers' hands by the end of 2015, UBS suggests this could translate to 24 million Apple Watches sold in the first 9-12 months of availability, depending on supplies.

In a smaller survey of customers who registered as very likely to purchase a smart watch, the Apple Watch placed second to the Samsung Gear in buying intentions, although UBS expects those positions to reverse once the Apple Watch becomes available.

applewatch1
The analysts also expect the new Apple wearable to redefine the category much like previous products from the company have done for their respective technological categories. Despite first-version limitations in daily charging and iPhone tethering, UBS sees significant potential for the Apple Watch and predicts it will become the spiritual successor to the iPhone in the long-term.

Cellular and battery technology is not yet sufficiently miniaturized to fit in the Watch and allow independent functioning. We would think the ability to do so is maybe five years away. In fact, the screen size differential may mean that the Watch and the iPhone will prove complements rather than substitutes. Arguably that is the way the iPad and Mac might be playing out, different products for different jobs.

Given that about two-thirds of Apple's profit is generated by the iPhone, the company has to be concerned about the longer-term threat of replacement technology, whether it be a leap in handset technology or loss of key functions to wearables. With a sophisticated user interface and third-party apps coming on, Apple may be readying for the time when the Apple Watch encroaches on the smartphone market.

The Apple Watch is set to launch in "early 2015", reportedly in the "spring" according to an internal video from retail chief Angela Ahrendts.

Related Roundup: Apple Watch 10
Buyer's Guide: Apple Watch (Caution)

Popular Stories

apple wallet drivers license feature iPhone 15 pro

iPhone Driver's Licenses: These 17 U.S. States Offer Them or Will Later

Thursday June 19, 2025 11:28 am PDT by
In select U.S. states, residents can add their driver's license or state ID to the Wallet app on the iPhone and Apple Watch, providing a convenient and contactless way to display proof of identity or age at select airports and businesses, and in select apps. Unfortunately, this feature continues to roll out very slowly since it was announced in 2021, with only nine U.S. states and Puerto...
iPhone 16 Battery Life Feature

iOS 26's New Battery Life Mode Available Only on These iPhone Models

Saturday June 21, 2025 9:02 am PDT by
Last week, we reported that iOS 26 introduces an opt-in Adaptive Power Mode on the iPhone, alongside the existing Low Power Mode. Apple says that Adaptive Power Mode can make "small performance adjustments" when necessary to extend an iPhone's battery life, including slightly lowering the display brightness or allowing some activities to "take a little longer." The full description of...
iPhone 17 Pro Blue Feature Tighter Crop

iPhone 17 Pro Launching in Three Months With These 12 New Features

Saturday June 14, 2025 5:45 pm PDT by
The iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max are three months away, and there are plenty of rumors about the devices. Below, we recap key changes rumored for the iPhone 17 Pro models as of June 2025:Aluminum frame: iPhone 17 Pro models are rumored to have an aluminum frame, whereas the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro models have a titanium frame, and the iPhone X through iPhone 14 Pro have a...
ios 26 call holding

iOS 26 Beta is Hiding a New Ringtone — Here's What It Sounds Like

Thursday June 19, 2025 7:25 pm PDT by
Apple is hiding a new ringtone within iOS 26. The new ringtone is an alternative version of the existing Reflection ringtone, which has been the default ringtone since the iPhone X was released in 2017. It was discovered within the code for the first developer beta of iOS 26, but it remains hidden, so you will not find it in the list of ringtones available in the Settings app for now. It...
apple watch ultra 2 new black

Apple Watch Ultra 3 Finally Coming After Two-Year Hiatus

Monday June 16, 2025 8:45 am PDT by
Apple will finally deliver the Apple Watch Ultra 3 sometime this year, according to analyst Jeff Pu of GF Securities Hong Kong (via @jukanlosreve). The analyst expects both the Apple Watch Series 11 and Apple Watch Ultra 3 to arrive this year (likely alongside the new iPhone 17 lineup, if previous launches are anything to go by), according to his latest product roadmap shared with...
iOS 18

Apple Releases iOS 18.6 Public Beta

Wednesday June 18, 2025 10:24 am PDT by
Apple today seeded the first betas of upcoming iOS 18.6 and iPadOS 18.6 updates to public beta testers, with the betas coming just a few days after Apple provided the betas to developers. Testers who have signed up for beta updates through Apple's beta site can download iOS 18.6 and iPadOS 18.6 from the Settings app on a compatible device by going to General > Software Update. When the...
General Spotify Feature

Spotify Preparing to Launch Long-Awaited Lossless Audio Tier on iPhone

Thursday June 19, 2025 1:46 pm PDT by
Spotify appears to be gearing up to launch its long-awaited lossless music tier. Chris Messina (via TechCrunch) and Spicetify (via The Verge) spotted new lossless references within the code for Spotify's desktop app and web player. With assistance from Aaron Perris, MacRumors has confirmed that the latest beta of the Spotify app for the iPhone also contains new lossless-related code....
airpods 4 blue

Apple Offering Free AirPods — Here's How to Get Them

Tuesday June 17, 2025 6:33 am PDT by
Apple is running a new promotion that offers free AirPods to qualifying customers. Now through September 30, college and university students in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Singapore can receive free AirPods 4 when they purchase an eligible new Mac or iPad from Apple. AirPods Pro 2 are also available at a discount. If you do not want AirPods, the promotion also offers various other...
Craig Federighi No

John Gruber Reacts to Apple Declining His Interview After His Criticism

Wednesday June 18, 2025 8:10 pm PDT by
Every year between 2015 and 2024, at least one Apple executive agreed to be interviewed by Daring Fireball's John Gruber for a special WWDC episode of his podcast, The Talk Show. Last year, for example, Apple's software engineering chief Craig Federighi, marketing chief Greg Joswiak, and top AI researcher John Giannandrea joined Gruber on stage at the California Theatre in San Jose to discuss...

Top Rated Comments

Shivetya Avatar
138 months ago
I am one of the 90% apparently....
Score: 38 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Bane-Thunder Avatar
138 months ago
I just don't see it happening. Who would want an additional device to charge daily when they got their phone for that?

I love tech but I won't be investing in any smartwatch.
Score: 20 Votes (Like | Disagree)
medazinol Avatar
138 months ago
First rule of Apple products: never buy the first generation of any new product. Let someone else be the guinea pig and sort out the inevitable quality problems and issues. Buy the next model a year later.

Apple's penchant for secrecy negates their ability to thoroughly test products in the wild in all sorts of conditions. First adopters are the beta testers.

I'm not buying, I sure hope my wife restrains herself from buying me one ;)
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
japanime Avatar
138 months ago
I'm also among the 90 percent. I have no interest in wearing an ugly tech watch.
Score: 9 Votes (Like | Disagree)
maflynn Avatar
138 months ago
Chalk me up to one of the 90% not buying it. I also wonder when its time to put the money down on this, will consumers be more hesitant to drop 300 - 500 for such a product.

Saying it is one thing, actually spending the money is quite another.
Score: 9 Votes (Like | Disagree)
BvizioN Avatar
138 months ago
I am on that 10%
Score: 8 Votes (Like | Disagree)