Analyst Says Perhaps Millions of iPhone 5 Pre-Orders Still in Transit, Not Included in Announced Sales
Earlier today, Apple officially announced sales of over five million iPhone 5 units during its launch weekend, easily topping the iPhone 4S debut from last year but falling short of many analysts' expectations.
ISI Group analyst Brian Marshall theorizes that the apparent shortfall compared to expectations may stem from Apple's rapid sellout of its own launch day pre-orders, which occurred in just about an hour. Apple announced two million pre-orders for the iPhone 5 in the first 24 hours of availability, a figure that was used by analysts to predict blockbuster opening weekend sales of 6-10 million units.
Marshall notes that many of those first-day pre-orders, as well as ones made after that date, have yet to be delivered, and thus Apple can not yet count them as sold. A brief "clarification" from Marshall reads:
[R]ecall the 5mil+ iPhone 5 reported sales only takes into consideration: 1) what was sold into partners (e.g., retail outlets, carriers, etc.), 2) sold in AAPL retail stores, and 3) direct to customers only if they signed for the device. Importantly, this doesn't take into consideration units in delivery direct to customers (i.e., AAPL must have signature of acceptance by customer before it is counted as a sale) and we estimate units in transit could be in the millions currently.
Some of those "late" iPhone 5 pre-orders through Apple that had been quoted delivery in early October have already begun shipping with estimated delivery dates of September 27. Those units will not, however, be counted as sales by Apple until they are delivered.
Update 7:13 AM: Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who was responsible for the widely cited 6-10 million unit estimate, has released his own note expressing similar sentiments. He believes that up to a million iPhone 5 pre-orders remain in transit and notes that in-store supply was tighter for the iPhone 5 than for the iPhone 4S, holding back iPhone 5 sales numbers.
We believe there are two factors that negatively impacted the number. First, our sales expectation assumed that Apple would include all phones pre-ordered online. We believe that this may have been up to 1 million additional units as units pre-ordered after the middle of the first day were projected to be available in October. Second, we noted 1.25 days of Apple Retail inventory compared to 2.5 days during the 4S launch. Our 8 million estimate assumed full weekend availability and the counting of all online pre-orders. We believe that if supply were not a constraint and Apple included all pre-orders, the launch weekend number would have been closer to 7-8 million, assuming ~1 million October pre-order sales and an additional 1-2 million units at retail.
Popular Stories
Apple is about to release iOS 26.2, the second major point update for iPhones since iOS 26 was rolled out in September, and there are at least 15 notable changes and improvements worth checking out. We've rounded them up below.
Apple is expected to roll out iOS 26.2 to compatible devices sometime between December 8 and December 16. When the update drops, you can check Apple's servers for the ...
Intel is expected to begin supplying some Mac and iPad chips in a few years, and the latest rumor claims the partnership might extend to the iPhone.
In a research note with investment firm GF Securities this week, obtained by MacRumors, analyst Jeff Pu said he and his colleagues "now expect" Intel to reach a supply deal with Apple for at least some non-pro iPhone chips starting in 2028....
A U.S. appeals court has upheld a temporary restraining order that prevents OpenAI and Jony Ive's new hardware venture from using the name "io" for products similar to those planned by AI audio startup iyO, Bloomberg Law reports.
iyO sued OpenAI earlier this year after the latter announced its partnership with Ive's new firm, arguing that OpenAI's planned "io" branding was too close to its...
Apple's iPhone development roadmap runs several years into the future and the company is continually working with suppliers on several successive iPhone models at the same time, which is why we often get rumored features months ahead of launch. The iPhone 18 series is no different, and we already have a good idea of what to expect for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max.
One thing worth...
In a statement shared with Bloomberg on Wednesday, Apple confirmed that its software design chief Alan Dye will be leaving. Apple said Dye will be succeeded by Stephen Lemay, who has been a software designer at the company since 1999.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that Dye will lead a new creative studio within the company's AR/VR division Reality Labs.
On his blog Daring Fireball,...
Apple is expected to launch a new foldable iPhone next year, based on multiple rumors and credible sources. The long-awaited device has been rumored for years now, but signs increasingly suggest that 2026 could indeed be the year that Apple releases its first foldable device.
Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos.
Below, we've collated an updated set of key details that ...
There is uncertainty about Apple's head of hardware engineering John Ternus succeeding Tim Cook as CEO, The Information reports. Some former Apple executives apparently hope that a new "dark-horse" candidate will emerge.
Ternus is considered to be the most likely candidate to succeed Cook as CEO. The report notes that he is more likely to become CEO than software head chief Craig Federighi, ...
Apple's senior vice president of hardware technologies Johny Srouji could be the next leading executive to leave the company amid an alarming exodus of leading employees, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reports.
Srouji apparently recently told CEO Tim Cook that he is "seriously considering leaving" in the near future. He intends to join another company if he departs. Srouji leads Apple's chip design ...
Apple is encouraging iPhone users who are still running iOS 18 to upgrade to iOS 26 by making the iOS 26 software upgrade option more prominent.
Since iOS 26 launched in September, it has been displayed as an optional upgrade at the bottom of the Software Update interface in the Settings app. iOS 18 has been the default operating system option, and users running iOS 18 have seen iOS 18...
Apple today seeded the release candidate versions of upcoming iOS 26.2 and iPadOS 26.2 updates to developers and public beta testers, with the software coming two weeks after Apple seeded the third betas. The release candidates represent the final versions of iOS 26.2 and iPadOS 26.2 that will be provided to the public if no further bugs are found during this final week of testing....
