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U.S. Mac Demand Soft in January as Customers Wait for Updated Models

Tuesday February 21, 2012 12:37 pm PST by Eric Slivka

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster is out with a new report today citing data from research firm NPD on U.S. sales of Macs. According to the data, Apple's U.S. Mac sales were up only 1% year-over-year in January, tracking behind predictions that have called for roughly 20% year-over-year growth for the full quarter. Munster believes, however, that continued strength in international markets and the potential for new Mac updates such as a refreshed MacBook Air near end of the quarter will likely help Apple close strongly to meet expectations.

We have analyzed domestic NPD retail data for the first month of the March quarter, which is up 1% y/y. The early data appears soft on a y/y basis; however, last quarter actual Mac growth outpaced NPD by 14 percentage points. Also, we believe Apple may launch new MacBook Airs as early as March. Net-net, we believe this early data suggests Mac sales in the range of 4.4m-4.6m, or 17%-22% y/y growth (we believe Street consensus is 4.5m Macs in the quarter and we are also at 4.5m).

With historical evidence showing overall growth outpacing NPD's U.S. data by 14 percentage points, Munster believes that Apple's actual worldwide Mac growth for January could be in the 15% range, close enough to the 20% target for the full quarter to give a Apple a reasonable chance at making up the difference with a strong finish.

Piper Jaffray's independent data on iPhone sales for January are tracking toward full-quarter sales of 32-34 million, a figure that would help overcome any softness on the Mac side. iPod sales trends remain in line with predictions of continued declines as customers shift from the aging iPod line to iPhones and iPads.

Top Rated Comments

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MetalMoon

99 months ago

yeah, I feel bad for those people waiting for that Mac Pro update.

Rating: 29 Votes

SchneiderMan

99 months ago

Simple - everyone already owns a Mac. Boom - I'm now an analyst too!

Rating: 21 Votes

jontech

99 months ago

Give me some Mac Pro love!

I got my credit card ready and a good home to give it!!

Rating: 19 Votes

ZZ Bottom

99 months ago

I think the MacBookPro 13" is gone and done. I don't know of anyone with one.

I think what you'll see is the the 11-13" is going to be the Mac Air and the 15"-17" will be the Mac Book Pro or Mac Air Pro.

Oh your right! You don't know of anyone with a 13" MBP so they must be collecting dust on the shelves... or perhaps you could take a walk on a college campus. You see more 13" MBPs than 15/17s or MBAs by far.

Rating: 14 Votes

Ciclismo

99 months ago

I'm not waiting for a new iMac. No siree, I'm not a sad, sad individual who checks the Mac Rumors buyers guide for the latest gossip on a potential iMac refresh, I swear. It's not like I am counting the days since the last refresh...294 days to be exact, in case you were wondering...

Rating: 14 Votes