Analysts Dispute Supply Chain Conclusions of iPad Production Cuts

Earlier today, a report from JPMorgan analysts made headlines for its claim that Apple has slashed its fourth quarter iPad production plans by 25%, sparking speculation and rumors that Apple may be planning a price cut amid weakening demand.

ipad2 hero
The Wall Street Journal notes, however, that several analysts have already spoken out against the conclusion, arguing that a single supply chain data point is insufficient to warrant such drastic production cut predictions. From Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster:

We also note that previous calls based on sell-in or supply chain data have, for the most part, proven to have very little correlation with Apple’s results vs. consensus dating back to early iPod shipments (2003). We believe Apple purposely maintains enough suppliers and manufacturing partners to make any one supply-side data point inconclusive.

Analysts also note that Apple appears to have actually accelerated production and bumped up third quarter orders to stockpile iPads heading into the holiday shopping season. Sources also indicate that Apple is likely to begin production of the iPad 3 at the end of the fourth quarter or early in 2012 and may be accelerating production now in order to ease that transition.

Apple struggled with the transition from iPad to iPad 2 production earlier this year, with weak sales coming in the first quarter of this year as Apple scaled down production of the original iPad and was unable to meet heavy initial demand for the iPad 2. From Susquehanna analyst Chris Caso:

We believe chatter regarding iPad production cuts are misleading – we have seen pull-ins, not cuts. We have noted recent comments by competitors discussing iPad production cuts for 4Q. Our recently published AAPL supply-chain checks noted a sequential decline in 4Q iPad builds from 17 mln-19 mln units in 3Q to 11 mln-13 mln units in 4Q. However, the 4Q sequential decline was accompanied by an increase in 3Q builds, leading us to conclude that production was likely pulled-in from 4Q to 3Q.

Some have suggested that the fourth quarter production cuts may be due to Apple shifting some production to Brazil by the end of the year, although most of Apple's Asian component suppliers would be expected to be serving that production channel in addition to the existing Chinese channel.

Apple's stock dropped as much 3% earlier today as the initial report circulated, but has since rebounded and is currently down only about 1.25%.

Related Roundup: iPad
Buyer's Guide: iPad (Buy Now)
Related Forum: iPad

Popular Stories

iPhone 17 Pro in Hand Feature Lowgo

iPhone 17 Pro to Reverse iPhone X Design Decision

Monday July 7, 2025 9:46 am PDT by
Since the iPhone X in 2017, all of Apple's highest-end iPhone models have featured either stainless steel or titanium frames, but it has now been rumored that this design decision will be coming to an end with the iPhone 17 Pro models later this year. In a post on Chinese social media platform Weibo today, the account Instant Digital said that the iPhone 17 Pro models will have an aluminum...
iOS 26 Feature

Everything New in iOS 26 Beta 3

Monday July 7, 2025 1:20 pm PDT by
Apple is continuing to refine and update iOS 26, and beta three features smaller changes than we saw in beta 2, plus further tweaks to the Liquid Glass design. Apple is gearing up for the next phase of beta testing, and the company has promised that a public beta is set to come out in July. Transparency In some apps like Apple Music, Podcasts, and the App Store, Apple has toned down the...
apple wallet drivers license feature iPhone 15 pro

Apple Says iPhone Driver's Licenses Will Expand to These 8 U.S. States

Tuesday July 8, 2025 11:26 am PDT by
In select U.S. states, residents can add their driver's license or state ID to the Wallet app on the iPhone and Apple Watch, providing a convenient and contactless way to display proof of identity or age at select airports and businesses, and in select apps. Unfortunately, this feature continues to roll out very slowly since it was announced in 2021, with only nine U.S. states, Puerto Rico,...
iphone 16 pro ghost hand

5 Reasons to Skip This Year's iPhone 17 Pro

Thursday July 10, 2025 4:54 am PDT by
Apple will launch its new iPhone 17 series in two months, and the iPhone 17 Pro models are expected to get a new design for the rear casing and the camera area. But more significant changes to the lineup are not expected until next year, when the iPhone 18 models arrive. If you're thinking of trading in your iPhone for this year's latest, consider the following features rumored to be coming...
apple account card feature

Apple Account Card Expanding to More Countries

Tuesday July 8, 2025 7:34 pm PDT by
Apple is expanding the ability to add an Apple Account Card to the Wallet app to more countries, according to backend Apple Pay changes. With iOS 15.5, Apple updated the Wallet app to allow users to add an Apple Account Card, which displays the Apple credit balance associated with an Apple ID. If you receive an Apple gift card, for example, it is added to an Apple Account that is also...
iPhone 17 Pro in Hand Feature Lowgo

Leaker Reveals Amount of RAM in iPhone 17 Through iPhone 17 Pro Max

Wednesday July 9, 2025 8:08 am PDT by
Three out of four iPhone 17 models will feature more RAM than the equivalent iPhone 16 models, according to a new leak that aligns with previous rumors. The all-new iPhone 17 Air, the iPhone 17 Pro, and the iPhone 17 Pro Max will each be equipped with 12GB of RAM, according to Fixed Focus Digital, an account with more than two million followers on Chinese social media platform Weibo. The...
iphone 16 pro models 1

Here's How the iPhone 17 Pro Max Will Compare to the iPhone 17 Pro

Saturday July 5, 2025 1:00 pm PDT by
Apple should unveil the iPhone 17 series in September, and there might be one bigger difference between the Pro and Pro Max models this year. As always, the Pro Max model will be larger than the Pro model:iPhone 17 Pro: 6.3-inch display iPhone 17 Pro Max: 6.9-inch displayGiven the Pro Max is physically larger than the Pro, it has more internal space, allowing for a larger battery and...
imac video apple feature

Apple Launching These 15+ Products Later This Year

Sunday July 6, 2025 8:05 am PDT by
The calendar has turned to July, meaning that 2025 is now more than half over. And while the summer months are often quiet for Apple, the company still has more than a dozen products coming later this year, according to rumors. Below, we have outlined at least 15 new Apple products that are expected to launch later this year, along with key rumored features for each. iPhone 17 Series iPho...

Top Rated Comments

aristokrat Avatar
180 months ago
Called it. As I said in the last thread, this was professional and bald-faced market manipulation. What all the other analysts are saying about one data point being too little to base a predication on, that's exactly the point: this analyst can back up his ridiculous claims based on "real" evidence, right after he dumped some stock and then picked it up again 3% cheaper. The SEC should pay this guy a visit.
Score: 7 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Mattsasa Avatar
180 months ago
in other news: Apple is wiping iCloud data as we speak!

and invitations should go out tomorrow, and stock will go back up
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
rdowns Avatar
180 months ago
These analysts are no different in their predictions than the kiddies in the iPhone forum. Wondering why MR and others publish obviously market manipulation stories.
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
qtx43 Avatar
180 months ago
This is the Windows 8 effect. You think it's a coincidence that demand for the iPad 2 has dropped a staggering 25 percent after Microsoft released the Windows 8 preview?

nope, my father in law who can barely get to google by himself on his laptop is downloading it as i type this to install on his laptop
Your computer illiterate relative is going to run a developer preview of an OS that won't be out for probably another year? Is this a joke? Good luck, you'll be spending even more time helping him get any actual work done.
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)
paul4339 Avatar
180 months ago
from WSJ Marketbeat:

... Apple shares were briefly lower than $392 in stark terror over this note, which J.P. Morgan is hustling to back away from as quickly as possible.

CNBC reports that J.P. Morgan is telling traders to tell clients that it thinks iPad sales are just fine. Apple shares have scrambled back to nearly the $400 mark on that CNBC report.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/26/apple-shares-briefly-fall-on-fear-of-unthinkable-flagging-in-ipad-demand/

drive down the price, back up the truck, re-tract statement, sell back your own clients at a profit. repeat.


.
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Laird Knox Avatar
180 months ago
This is the Windows 8 effect. You think it's a coincidence that demand for the iPad 2 has dropped a staggering 25 percent after Microsoft released the Windows 8 preview?

You think that many iPad purchasers have even heard of Windows 8?
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)