Apple's Q1 2009 Earnings Predictions

Apple will release their earnings for the first quarter of the 2009 fiscal year Wednesday afternoon. A number of reports circulating over the past couple of days lend some insight into what we might be able to expect.

AppleInsider discusses a report from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who predicts based on data from research firm NPD that Apple sold between 2.45 million and 2.55 million Macs in the quarter for a gain of 6-10% over the year-ago quarter. Munster specifically points to an approximately 4% gain in year-over-year Mac sales for the month of December, rebounding from flat or slightly negative growth during November, as a positive sign. Munster also predicts iPod sales in the range of 19 million to 20 million units, above Wall Street's expectations of approximately 18.6 million units.

Fortune, on the other hand, contrasts Munster's view with that of Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who views much of the NPD data negatively. The major difference between Munster and Sacconaghi's predictions, however, appears in their iPhone numbers, for which NPD does not provide data. Munster predicts quarterly iPhone sales of 6.4 million, while Sacconaghi predicts sales in the range of 3.5 million to 4 million.

The wild card that may be missed by many investors, as thoroughly described by Andy Zaky at Bullish Cross, is Apple's use of subscription-based accounting for iPhone revenue. The practice, which results in Apple recognizing revenue from a particular iPhone sale over the two-year term of the service contract, resulted in significantly lower revenue numbers for last quarter than would have otherwise been seen.

As Zaky points out (and Fortune summarizes), this discrepancy has resulted in Apple releasing two sets of earnings number, one "official" one calculated according to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) using subscription-based accounting of iPhone sales and one calculated using non-GAAP revenue recognizing each iPhone purchase entirely within the quarter in which the sale was made. Because most analysts base their reports on GAAP numbers, many are ignoring the impact of fractional revenue being carried over from sales made in earlier quarters. Consequently, while Q1 2009 most likely saw a decline in iPhone sales from the previous quarter, the impact of this decline on Apple's revenue numbers should be mitigated by this subscription-based accounting.

Popular Stories

iPhone 16 Pro Sizes Feature

iPhone 16 Series Is Just Two Months Away: Everything We Know

Monday July 15, 2024 4:44 am PDT by
Apple typically releases its new iPhone series around mid-September, which means we are about two months out from the launch of the iPhone 16. Like the iPhone 15 series, this year's lineup is expected to stick with four models – iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max – although there are plenty of design differences and new features to take into account. To bring ...
macbook pro january

Best Buy's Black Friday in July Sale Takes Up to $700 Off M3 MacBook Pro for Members

Monday July 15, 2024 11:05 am PDT by
Best Buy's "Black Friday in July" sale is in full swing today, and in addition to a few iPad Air discounts we shared earlier, there are also some steep markdowns on the M3 MacBook Pro. You will need a My Best Buy Plus or Total membership in order to get some of these deals. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with Best Buy. When you click a link and make a purchase, we may receive a small...
ipaos 18 image playground

Apple Releases First iOS 18 and iPadOS 18 Public Betas

Monday July 15, 2024 1:16 pm PDT by
Apple today provided the first betas of iOS 18 and iPadOS 18 to public beta testers, bringing the new software to the general public for the first time since the Worldwide Developers Conference in June. Apple has seeded three developer betas so far, and the first public beta includes the same content that's in the third developer beta. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. ...
maxresdefault

Apple's AirPods Pro 2 vs. Samsung's Galaxy Buds3 Pro

Saturday July 13, 2024 8:00 am PDT by
Samsung this week introduced its latest earbuds, the Galaxy Buds3 Pro, which look quite a bit like Apple's AirPods Pro 2. Given the similarities, we thought we'd compare Samsung's new earbuds to the AirPods Pro. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Design wise, you could potentially mistake Samsung's Galaxy Buds3 Pro for the AirPods Pro. The Buds3 Pro have the same...
Beyond iPhone 13 Better Blue Face ID Single Camera Hole

10 Reasons to Wait for Next Year's iPhone 17

Monday July 8, 2024 5:00 am PDT by
Apple's iPhone development roadmap runs several years into the future and the company is continually working with suppliers on several successive iPhone models simultaneously, which is why we sometimes get rumored feature leaks so far ahead of launch. The iPhone 17 series is no different – already we have some idea of what to expect from Apple's 2025 smartphone lineup. If you plan to skip...
Generic iOS 18 Feature Real Mock

Apple Seeds Revised Third Betas of iOS 18 and iPadOS 18 to Developers

Monday July 15, 2024 10:09 am PDT by
Apple today seeded updated third betas iOS 18 and iPadOS 18 to developers for testing purposes, with the software coming a week after Apple initially released the third betas. Registered developers are able to opt into the betas by opening up the Settings app, going to the Software Update section, tapping on the "Beta Updates" option, and toggling on the ‌iOS 18/iPadOS 18‌ Developer Beta ...