Kuo: 2024 MacBooks and iPads to Feature 3nm Chips, But Demand Might Fall Below Expectations

Apple plans to release new MacBooks and iPads with 3nm chips in 2024, but demand for the devices might be "below expectations" due to a "lack of growth drivers," according to research shared today by supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

MacBook Air 15 Inch Feature Teal
Kuo explained in a blog post on Medium:

Apple's 3nm demand for 2024 would be below expectations. In 2023, Apple's MacBook and iPad shipments declined significantly by approximately 30% and 22% to 17 million and 48 million units, respectively. The sharp decline is attributed to the end of work-from-home (WFH) demand and diminishing user appeal for the new specifications (Apple Silicon and Mini-LED). Looking ahead to 2024, Apple's 3nm demand is negatively impacted by the lack of growth drivers for MacBook and iPad.

Kuo is essentially saying that Apple will no longer have the growth catalysts that it did over the past few years, such as a pandemic-driven work-from-home boost in demand or the newness of Apple silicon, which spurred many customers to upgrade from Intel-based Macs. However, given Mac and iPad sales already significantly declined in 2023, Apple will at least have more favorable year-over-year sales comparisons in 2024.

It's also worth noting that the next iPad Pro models are expected to feature OLED displays, which could be another growth driver for that product line.

Kuo recently said that he does not expect Apple to release any new MacBooks or iPads between now and the end of 2023, although it was recently rumored that a new iPad mini is still possible this year. If Kuo is accurate, it is possible that Apple will wait until 2024 to announce the M3 chip, which could result in a quiet end to this year for the company.

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Top Rated Comments

MrAperture Avatar
9 months ago
It’s just hard to justify upgrading devices when base storage and base memory doesn’t justify their starting prices.

Start iPad storage at 128GB and MacBooks at 512GB and MacBook Pros at 1TB.

NAND prices have drastically fallen in the last year.
Score: 67 Votes (Like | Disagree)
jclardy Avatar
9 months ago
I think the drop in demand is just that M1 was just such a breath of fresh air compared to the i9 MBP's from before. I had a last gen i9 16" and it was slow, hot, and battery life was terrible. The M1 MBP solved all those things, added a way better screen, incredible portability and great connectivity (Magsafe, SD Card, HDMI)...

Basically, people used to upgrade year over year in the hope that they would finally find a "good enough" machine...the M1 MBP is that machine for 95% of users.

I think my M1 will hold me out till the M4 era at least.
Score: 28 Votes (Like | Disagree)
SamRyouji Avatar
9 months ago

It’s just hard to justify upgrading devices when base storage and base memory doesn’t justify their starting prices.

Start iPad storage at 128GB and MacBooks at 512GB and MacBook Pros at 1TB.

NAND prices have drastically fallen in the last year.
Not only that, but considering how long people hold onto their iPads and MacBooks, it explains logically why demand will fall below expectations.
/rant begins
All in all, whose expectations? Greedy investors who wants every single company they invested to grow sales exponentially each year? There's only so much humans in this planet. In before they expect price increase tenfold and every humans in this planet (newborn and near deaths included) to buy twelve of each their products?
Release product less often, have logical sales projection, be content. That's when it will benefits all (them and us consumers). But alas, in this "platinum" age of capitalism it will be 100% impossible to happen.
/rant over
Score: 24 Votes (Like | Disagree)
mozumder Avatar
9 months ago
I have a maxed out M1 MacBook Pro 16", cost like $7k. I'm not gonna upgrade it for another 10 years when things actually physically break.
Score: 18 Votes (Like | Disagree)
turbineseaplane Avatar
9 months ago
Stop. Gouging. On. Upgrade. Pricing.

That will fix the “demand” for many of us
Score: 16 Votes (Like | Disagree)
bassanoclapper Avatar
9 months ago
Growth was inevitably going to slow once the Covid surge had subsided. Maybe less 'diminishing user appeal for the new specifications' and quite a bit of tightening of purse strings in the current economic climate
Score: 14 Votes (Like | Disagree)