Kuo: Apple Watch Series 3 Demand Higher Than Expected as iPhone X Anticipation Cannibalizes iPhone 8 Pre-Orders

Demand for Apple's high-end flagship iPhone X is "very likely" to cannibalize iPhone 8 pre-orders, predicts KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in a note sent out to investors this morning.

iPhone pre-orders traditionally sell out in September due to high demand, but this year, many models of the iPhone 8 and the iPhone 8 Plus were available for launch day delivery through the weekend, and continue to remain readily available for launch day pickup in Apple retail stores.

iphone8plus
Kuo, like many of us, believes this is because many customers are awaiting the iPhone X. KGI is "positive on demand" for iPhone X and believes the market will be conservative on iPhone 8 and its suppliers in the near term. High demand for iPhone X, which does not launch until November, could impact Apple's fourth-quarter earnings results.

Historically, it takes 3-6 weeks or more to ship new iPhone models after they are available for preorder, due to initial tight supply and robust demand. However, our latest review indicates it will take less than 1-2 weeks for the iPhone 8. We believe this is because there is a strong likelihood that iPhone X demand will cannibalize iPhone 8 pre-orders

As for the Apple Watch Series 3, Kuo says demand for the LTE version of the device was "significantly stronger" than expected, perhaps due to the "low premium of $70" over the non-LTE version of the watch.

He believes pre-order weighting of the GPS + Cellular version of the Apple Watch to be 80 to 90 percent over the non-LTE version, though that prediction does seem somewhat questionable given the limited number of countries where the LTE version of the device was available for purchase.

Before the media event, we forecasted the production weighting of the GPS + Cellular version would be 30-40%. However, the pre-order website shows shipments of this version are taking much longer than those of the GPS version (3-4 weeks, from shipments launch day of September 22). We estimate the preorder weighting of the GPS + Cellular version is 80-90%.

Apple Watch Series 3 models equipped with LTE began selling out within 15 minutes of when pre-orders became available for the device on Friday, September 15. It will now take a good three to four weeks to get one of the LTE Apple Watch models, with no in-store pickup available at this time.

The first iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus, and Apple Watch Series 3 orders will begin arriving to customers on September 22, the official launch date for the devices.

Apple plans to begin accepting pre-orders for the radically redesigned iPhone X on October 27 ahead of a November 3 launch date.

Related Roundup: Apple Watch Series 9
Buyer's Guide: Apple Watch (Buy Now)
Related Forum: iPhone

Top Rated Comments

roeiz Avatar
79 months ago
"i won't pay 1000$ for a phone" - yea right.
Score: 53 Votes (Like | Disagree)
macduke Avatar
79 months ago
I'm sure Apple is fine with their much more expensive iPhone cannibalizing sales. Furthermore, many people who order on launch day are the technology enthusiasts—so it makes more sense that they are waiting to buy the high-end model. Everyone else will order whenever they feel like it—often for a gift, when their old phone breaks or stops getting updates, or whenever their usual upgrade period begins. We're the odd ones who wake up in the middle of the night to order. Things will probably go back to normal post-launch and the iPhone 8 will outsell the iPhone X. If not, then Apple might be in trouble as the supply chain suggests they geared up for many more iPhone 8 models than iPhone X models.
Score: 22 Votes (Like | Disagree)
yanki01 Avatar
79 months ago
with all due respect, sir. thank you captain obvious.
Score: 20 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Radon87000 Avatar
79 months ago
That's obvious. The X made the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus look like a joke. The only possible caveat is the screen size.
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
WoodrowCall Avatar
79 months ago
I'm not saying that some aren't waiting for the X to come out. However, many might be like me and are looking at the X as probably not even practically available until after Christmas, and the 8 as not worth the upgrade.
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
TMRJIJ Avatar
79 months ago
Duh... iPhone 8 never stood a chance against the X.

Score: 17 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

iphone se 4 modified flag edges

iPhone SE 4 Details: Action Button, USB-C Port, Face ID, and More

Wednesday September 27, 2023 1:34 pm PDT by
Significant changes are expected to arrive with Apple's fourth-generation iPhone SE, in terms of both design and hardware, MacRumors has learned. The iPhone SE 4, known internally under the codename Ghost, is expected to receive a new design derived almost entirely from the base model iPhone 14. According to our sources, the iPhone SE 4 will use a modified version of the iPhone 14 chassis...
Multi Display CarPlay 1

All-New Apple CarPlay Launching Later This Year With These 5 New Features

Friday September 29, 2023 11:29 am PDT by
At WWDC 2022 last year, Apple previewed the next generation of CarPlay, promising deeper integration with vehicle functions like A/C and FM radio, support for multiple displays across the dashboard, personalization options, and more. Apple said the first vehicles with support for the next-generation CarPlay experience would be announced in late 2023, but it has still not shared any additional...
iOS 17

Everything New in iOS 17.1 Beta 1

Wednesday September 27, 2023 1:57 pm PDT by
Just a week after releasing iOS 17, Apple has seeded the first beta of iOS 17.1 to developers. iOS 17.1 adds some features that Apple promised were coming to iOS 17 in the future, plus it refines and improves some existing features. This guide covers everything new in the first iOS 17.1 beta. Apple Music Favorites You can favorite songs, albums, playlists, and artists in the iOS 17.1...
iPhone 15 Pro lineup

iPhone 15 Pro Overheating Concerns Highlighted in Two More Reports

Thursday September 28, 2023 6:25 am PDT by
iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max overheating concerns continue to make headlines this week, with the topic highlighted by The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. Both of the reports document anecdotal complaints from customers, and outline potential causes, but it's unclear how many devices are actually affected. Bloomberg said the overheating could be caused or compounded by the iPhone's setup...
iPhone 15 Pro lineup

Apple to Address iPhone 15 Pro Overheating Issue With iOS 17 Update

Saturday September 30, 2023 9:28 am PDT by
Apple plans to release an iOS 17 update to address a bug that may contribute to the reported iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max overheating issue, according to a statement the company shared today with MacRumors and Forbes reporter David Phelan. Apple also says some recent updates to third-party apps have overloaded the system and contributed to the overheating issue. The report notes that...
iPhone 15 USB C Port Keynote

Some USB-C Power Banks Fail to Work With iPhone 15

Thursday September 28, 2023 2:06 pm PDT by
Apple added a USB-C port to the iPhone 15 lineup this year, allowing it to work with USB-C cables, USB-C power banks, and more. It turns out that some USB-C battery packs are not working properly with Apple's iPhone 15, resulting in charging issues. As highlighted on Reddit and the MacRumors forums, not all existing USB-C power banks can be used with the iPhone 15 models, perhaps due to the...
iOS 17

Apple Releases iOS 17.0.2 and iPadOS 17.0.2 for All iPhones and iPads

Tuesday September 26, 2023 12:47 pm PDT by
Apple today released iOS 17.0.2 and iPadOS 17.0.2 updates, with the software coming five days after the releases of iOS 17.0.1 and iPadOS 17.0.1. Today's iOS 17.0.2 and iPadOS 17.0.2 updates arrive as build 21A351 and can be downloaded on eligible iPhones and iPads over-the-air by going to Settings > General > Software Update. Note that iOS 17.0.2 was previously made available for iPhone...