Apple Watch Predicted to Capture 50% Market Share in 2016 on 14 Million Sales

While the Apple Watch captured an impressive 75.5 percent share of the smartwatch market through its launch quarter last year, market research firm IDC predicts that watchOS will gradually cede market share to competing platforms such as Android Wear, Tizen, and Pebble OS over the next four to five years.

Apple-Watch-trio
IDC forecasts that the Apple Watch software will capture 49.4 percent market share in 2016, but that figure is expected to drop to 37.6 percent in 2020. IDC expects global shipments of 237.1 million wearable devices in 2020, up from an estimated 110 million in 2016, as the wearable market continues to grow.

The decline in market share will not be indicative of fewer Apple Watch sales, as sales of the wrist-worn device are projected to rise from an estimated 14 million units in 2016 to 31 million in 2020. Comparatively, Apple sold an estimated 11.5 million watches over the final 8 months of 2015, based on combined IDC and Strategy Analytics data.

IDC-apple-watch-2016-to-2020
Instead, the wearable market is expected to become a more competitive landscape. IDC forecasts that Android Wear will remain the second most popular smartwatch platform, with an estimated 6.1 million sales and 21.4 percent market share in 2016 rising to 28.8 million sales and 35 percent market share by 2020.

IDC believes that Chinese smartwatches using real-time operating systems (RTOS) will trail in third place in the smartwatch market with 10.1 percent market share by 2020. Tizen, Android, Linux, and Pebble OS round off the list with estimated 6.6 percent, 5.2 percent, 2.8 percent, and 2.7 percent market shares by 2020.

Related Roundup: Apple Watch 11
Buyer's Guide: Apple Watch (Buy Now)

Popular Stories

AirPods Pro Firmware Feature

Apple Releases New Firmware for AirPods Pro 2, AirPods Pro 3, and AirPods 4

Thursday November 13, 2025 11:35 am PST by
Apple today released new firmware designed for the AirPods Pro 3, the AirPods 4, and the prior-generation AirPods Pro 2. The AirPods Pro 3 firmware is 8B25, while the AirPods Pro 2 and AirPods 4 firmware is 8B21, all up from the prior 8A358 firmware released in October. There's no word on what's include in the updated firmware, but the AirPods Pro 2, AirPods 4 with ANC, and AirPods Pro 3...
iPhone Pocket Short

iPhone Pocket Now Available to Order, But Already Selling Out

Friday November 14, 2025 6:20 am PST by
Apple recently teamed up with Japanese fashion brand ISSEY MIYAKE to create the iPhone Pocket, a limited-edition knitted accessory designed to carry an iPhone. iPhone Pocket is available to order on Apple's online store starting today, in the United States, France, China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. However, it is already completely sold out in the United...
CarPlay Pinned Messages

iOS 26.2 Adds New CarPlay Setting

Thursday November 13, 2025 6:48 am PST by
iOS 26 extended pinned conversations in the Messages app to CarPlay, for quick access to your most frequent chats. However, some drivers may prefer the classic view with a list of individual conversations only, and Apple now lets users choose. Apple released the second beta of iOS 26.2 this week, and it introduces a new CarPlay setting for turning off pinned conversations in the Messages...
tvOS 26 Profiles

tvOS 26.2 Adds a Useful New Feature to Your Apple TV

Friday November 14, 2025 10:02 am PST by
Starting with the upcoming tvOS 26.2 update, currently in beta, additional profiles created on the Apple TV no longer require their own Apple Account. In the Settings app on the Apple TV, under Profiles and Accounts, anyone can create a new profile by simply entering a name and indicating whether the profile is for a kid. The profile will be associated with the primary user's Apple Account,...
Tim Cook WWDC 2018

Report: Tim Cook to Step Down as Apple CEO 'as Soon as Next Year'

Saturday November 15, 2025 2:40 pm PST by
Apple is preparing for Tim Cook to step down as CEO of the company "as soon as next year," according to the Financial Times. The company's board of directors and senior executives "recently intensified preparations for Cook to hand over the reins," the report said. While the report said that Apple is unlikely to name a new CEO before its next earnings report in late January, it went on to ...
apple silicon mac lineup 2024 feature purple m5

Apple's 2026 Mac Plans

Friday November 14, 2025 3:23 pm PST by
Most of Apple's Macs are slated to get M5 chips across 2026, and there's a possibility we'll even see the first M6 chips toward the end of the year. Updates are planned for everything from the MacBook Air to the Mac Studio. MacBook Air (Early 2026) The MacBook Air will be one of the first Macs to get a 2026 refresh, with an update planned for the first few months of the year. The MacBook...
walmart new ornametns

Walmart Black Friday Deals Begin Today With Low Prices on Headphones, TVs, and More

Friday November 14, 2025 7:55 am PST by
Walmart's Black Friday sale has officially kicked off today, with an online shopping event that's also seeing some matching deals in retail locations. There are quite a few major discounts in this sale, including savings on headphones, TVs, and more. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with Walmart. When you click a link and make a purchase, we may receive a small payment, which helps us...
best early black friday deals

Best Black Friday Apple Deals Live Now - Save on AirPods, iPads, and Apple Watches

Saturday November 15, 2025 1:45 pm PST by
We're officially in the month of Black Friday, which will take place on Friday, November 28 in 2025. As always, this will be the best time of the year to shop for great deals, including popular Apple products like AirPods, iPad, Apple Watch, and more. In this article, the majority of the discounts will be found on Amazon. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these vendors. When ...
iOS 26

iOS 26.2 Available Next Month With These 8 New Features

Tuesday November 11, 2025 9:48 am PST by
Apple released the first iOS 26.2 beta last week. The upcoming update includes a handful of new features and changes on the iPhone, including a new Liquid Glass slider for the Lock Screen's clock, offline lyrics in Apple Music, and more. In a recent press release, Apple confirmed that iOS 26.2 will be released to all users in December, but it did not provide a specific release date....
homepod mini thumb feature

New HomePod Mini, Apple TV, and AirTag Were Expected This Year — Where Are They?

Wednesday November 12, 2025 11:42 am PST by
While it was rumored that Apple planned to release new versions of the HomePod mini, Apple TV, and AirTag this year, it is no longer clear if that will still happen. Back in January, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said Apple planned to release new HomePod mini and Apple TV models "toward the end of the year," while he at one point expected a new AirTag to launch "around the middle of 2025." Yet,...

Top Rated Comments

Jimmy James Avatar
126 months ago
A market to watch.
Score: 15 Votes (Like | Disagree)
OllyW Avatar
126 months ago
And yet every time I read a story about the watch, people call it a flop and say Tim should either resign for it or discontinue the product. Amazing. :rolleyes:
I think some people have unrealistic expectations and expect sales to immediately reach iPhone levels.
Score: 13 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Duane Martin Avatar
126 months ago
It IS a flop in Apple standards, regarding Apples undenibale ambitions this being the next big thing after iPod, iPhone and iPad. The curse of an unparalleled success story in the last 15 years.
However, even this is not true. Even by Apple standards the Apple Watch is not a flop, matching or exceeding previous 1st generation products FROM APPLE. The myth about the Apple Watch "flop" is so prevalent on MacRumors even those who think they are defending the Apple Watch (or pretend to be) repeat it.

Apple bashers on this forum used to decry the Steve Jobs "Reality Distortion Field." It is safe to say Steve Jobs was not the only personality capable of distorting reality. The MacRumors forum membership has collectively achieved an equally powerful distortion of reality.
Score: 12 Votes (Like | Disagree)
0958400 Avatar
126 months ago
Congrats to Apple, but now we do need a WatchOS 3.0 that delivers:
- A LOT of watch faces and adaptability
- a gui that does make sense
- more SIRI actions with the Apple Watch (dictating notes, etc.)
- rating music
- displaying html mails
- speed!
- buttons that can be assigned (or at least buttons that do make sense due to frequent usage ("friends" does not do it and Apple Pay is not available in my country as it isn't in 97% of the countries world-wide...)
Score: 11 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Kaibelf Avatar
126 months ago
And yet every time I read a story about the watch, people call it a flop and say Tim should either resign for it or discontinue the product. Amazing. :rolleyes:
Score: 10 Votes (Like | Disagree)
DaveOP Avatar
126 months ago
It IS a flop in Apple standards, regarding Apples undenibale ambitions this being the next big thing after the iPod, iPhone and iPad. The curse of an unparalleled success story in the last 15 years.
Only to the standards YOU hold them to. None of us have any idea what kinda of sales numbers they were expecting.
Score: 8 Votes (Like | Disagree)