RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky today issued a new report sharing the results of a proprietary survey of 2,200 respondents, revealing significantly higher demand for the iPhone 5 than was evident for the iPhone 4 ahead of its release last year. The survey shows that 31% of respondents are either very likely or somewhat likely to purchase an iPhone 5, compared to 25% for the iPhone 4 back in June 2010. Moreover, Apple's 15-16 month gap since the iPhone 4 release is also pushing a strong upgrade cycle, with 66% of existing iPhone users very likely or somewhat likely to upgrade to the iPhone 5.

rbc iphone 5 demand
Customer likelihood of purchasing iPhone 5 ahead of launch compared to iPhone 4

Unsurprisingly, potential launches of the iPhone 5 on Sprint and T-Mobile USA are also having a favorable effect on customer demand at those carriers, with 50-55% of customers at both carriers reporting that bringing the iPhone 5 to their carrier would make them "significantly" or "somewhat" more likely to purchase the device. Of the two carriers, Sprint has seen the stronger rumors of an iPhone 5 debut, although hints of an iPhone 5 for T-Mobile USA have also been circulating.

rbc sprint tmobile iphone 5 likelihood
Effect of iPhone 5 coming to Sprint or T-Mobile USA on customer purchasing plans

RBC's survey also takes a look at the tablet market, where Apple continues to hold a dominating position with 85% of all customers planning to purchase a tablet opting for an iPad. Samsung's Galaxy Tab takes second place with 4% of planned purchases.

Based on the strong survey results, RBC is raising its holiday quarter iPhone estimates from 24.4 million units to 27 million units and pushing total fiscal 2012 estimates from 105 million units to 110 million units. RBC is also raising its iPad estimates for the current back-to-school quarter from 10.5 million units to 12.5 million units as Apple continues to dominate the tablet market.

Related Roundup: iPad
Buyer's Guide: iPad (Caution)
Related Forums: iPhone, iPad

Top Rated Comments

spazzcat Avatar
162 months ago
I know of four or five people waiting for iPhone 5 to drop their Doid or blackberry. They ask me everyday, any news on IP5?
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
iAppleseed Avatar
162 months ago
Apple, release the iPhone 5. I'm tired of waiting. And the new features better be good or else.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
macnisse Avatar
162 months ago
More carriers + longer refesh cycle = increased demand.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
jb510 Avatar
162 months ago
I for one have no plans on replacing my iPhone 4 with a 4s/5... Unless it's released on Tmo In which case I'll switch instantly and tell AT&T to go to hell.

It's still hard to figure out what's going on, if the hardware is 4s then it seems odd to have had a longer upgrade cycle, but a 4s seems more likely since the focus is on iOS 5 and iCloud right now, not hardware. A fall release
date for iphone/ipad always made more sense to me though to capitalize on the holiday season.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
BC2009 Avatar
162 months ago
I think this survey would be more interesting after Apple announced iPhone 5, but before they release it. Many folks don't even know a new iPhone is due to be released.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Epic Xbox Revie Avatar
162 months ago
Well duh.
Score: 0 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

apple wallet drivers license feature

Apple Said iPhone Driver's Licenses Will Expand to These 8 U.S. States

Monday February 12, 2024 7:51 am PST by
In 2021, Apple introduced a feature that lets residents of participating U.S. states add their driver's license or ID to the Wallet app on the iPhone and Apple Watch, providing a convenient and contactless way to display proof of identity or age. Unfortunately, states have been slow to adopt the feature since it was first announced in September 2021, with IDs in the Wallet app only available ...
New Macs iPads iOS 17 4

New Macs and iPads Coming Soon: What to Expect

Saturday February 17, 2024 3:00 am PST by
Following the launch of Apple's Vision Pro headset, attention has shifted towards what is next on the company's agenda this year. As usual, March should be eventful for Apple, as it is expected to release new MacBook Air, iPad Pro, and iPad Air models during the month. In a recent press release, Apple also confirmed that iOS 17.4 will be released in March. Below, we recap what to expect...
iPhone 15 General Feature Black

iOS 17.3 Added New Feature That Every iPhone User Should Know About

Friday February 16, 2024 6:28 am PST by
Apple's recent iOS 17.3 software update includes an important new feature that all iPhone users should know about: Stolen Device Protection. The Wall Street Journal last year reported about thieves spying on an iPhone user's passcode before stealing the device, often in public places like bars. With knowledge of the passcode, the thief can then change the victim's Apple ID password, turn off ...
Apple Watch Series 9

5 Major New Features Rumored for This Year's Apple Watch

Sunday February 18, 2024 3:00 am PST by
Thinking about upgrading your Apple Watch or buying one for the first time? If your current smartwatch is doing its job just fine and it's only the idea of a good deal that's piqued your interest, it could be worth holding out until later this year when Apple unveils its next-generation version. Here's why. There are already several rumors from reputable sources that suggest 2024 could be a...