RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky today issued a new report sharing the results of a proprietary survey of 2,200 respondents, revealing significantly higher demand for the iPhone 5 than was evident for the iPhone 4 ahead of its release last year. The survey shows that 31% of respondents are either very likely or somewhat likely to purchase an iPhone 5, compared to 25% for the iPhone 4 back in June 2010. Moreover, Apple's 15-16 month gap since the iPhone 4 release is also pushing a strong upgrade cycle, with 66% of existing iPhone users very likely or somewhat likely to upgrade to the iPhone 5.

rbc iphone 5 demand
Customer likelihood of purchasing iPhone 5 ahead of launch compared to iPhone 4

Unsurprisingly, potential launches of the iPhone 5 on Sprint and T-Mobile USA are also having a favorable effect on customer demand at those carriers, with 50-55% of customers at both carriers reporting that bringing the iPhone 5 to their carrier would make them "significantly" or "somewhat" more likely to purchase the device. Of the two carriers, Sprint has seen the stronger rumors of an iPhone 5 debut, although hints of an iPhone 5 for T-Mobile USA have also been circulating.

rbc sprint tmobile iphone 5 likelihood
Effect of iPhone 5 coming to Sprint or T-Mobile USA on customer purchasing plans

RBC's survey also takes a look at the tablet market, where Apple continues to hold a dominating position with 85% of all customers planning to purchase a tablet opting for an iPad. Samsung's Galaxy Tab takes second place with 4% of planned purchases.

Based on the strong survey results, RBC is raising its holiday quarter iPhone estimates from 24.4 million units to 27 million units and pushing total fiscal 2012 estimates from 105 million units to 110 million units. RBC is also raising its iPad estimates for the current back-to-school quarter from 10.5 million units to 12.5 million units as Apple continues to dominate the tablet market.

Related Roundup: iPad
Buyer's Guide: iPad (Neutral)

Top Rated Comments

spazzcat Avatar
125 months ago
I know of four or five people waiting for iPhone 5 to drop their Doid or blackberry. They ask me everyday, any news on IP5?
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
iAppleseed Avatar
125 months ago
Apple, release the iPhone 5. I'm tired of waiting. And the new features better be good or else.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
macnisse Avatar
125 months ago
More carriers + longer refesh cycle = increased demand.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
jb510 Avatar
125 months ago
I for one have no plans on replacing my iPhone 4 with a 4s/5... Unless it's released on Tmo In which case I'll switch instantly and tell AT&T to go to hell.

It's still hard to figure out what's going on, if the hardware is 4s then it seems odd to have had a longer upgrade cycle, but a 4s seems more likely since the focus is on iOS 5 and iCloud right now, not hardware. A fall release
date for iphone/ipad always made more sense to me though to capitalize on the holiday season.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
BC2009 Avatar
125 months ago
I think this survey would be more interesting after Apple announced iPhone 5, but before they release it. Many folks don't even know a new iPhone is due to be released.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Epic Xbox Revie Avatar
125 months ago
Well duh.
Score: 0 Votes (Like | Disagree)

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