Kuo: Reports of iPhone 8 Sales Woes 'Overdone' and 'Excessively Negative'

Reports of lower than expected first weekend iPhone 8 sales are "overdone," KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo told investors in a new note sent out this evening. Kuo says that based on estimates of iPhone 8 production and research data from Localytics, the market is "excessively negative" on iPhone 8 sales.

According to Kuo, first weekend sales of the iPhone 8 were not weak, but stable. He believes Apple is expecting a 50/50 demand split between iPhone X and iPhone 8 and 8 Plus, and sales of the latter two devices are on target when taking that into consideration.

iphone8sizesdesign

We previously estimated the production weighting of new 2017 iPhone models at roughly 50% iPhone X and 50% iPhone 8/ 8 Plus. This matches what we believe is Apple's (US) estimate for demand. At first glance, the combined first-week adoption rate for the iPhone 8/ 8 Plus might appear low (about half that of iPhone 6s/ 6s Plus and 7/ 7 Plus). However, this is due to the fact that the iPhone X is not included, not because iPhone 8/ 8 Plus first weekend sales have been weak.

Recent data from Localytics found that the iPhone 8 Plus is more popular than the iPhone 8, which Kuo says aligns with KGI's production-side observations. While sales were lower overall, the iPhone 8 Plus saw the strongest first weekend adoption rate of any Plus-sized iPhone to date.

We note that production of the iPhone 8 versus 8 Plus in 3Q17F is roughly split down the middle of a total of 16-18mn units. This reflects Apple's thinking that demand for these two models will be similar, at least in the early stages. In reality, according to Localytics, iPhone 8 Plus sales fared slightly better than those of the iPhone 8 during the first weekend, while the former's shipping time was longer, according to Apple's online store.

Kuo believes the market is negative on first weekend iPhone 8 sales because market analysts rely overmuch on observed sales momentum in unlocked/SIM-free channels such as the Apple Store, while overlooking sales momentum within carrier channels.

iPhone 8 lines outside of Apple retail stores were indeed shorter this year than in past years, says Kuo, but there was stable first weekend demand within carrier channels. Most people who camp outside of Apple Stores to purchase devices are "presumably hardcore Apple fans and heavy users" who are waiting for the iPhone X, which he says explains the perceived lack of demand.

Though Kuo believes first weekend sales of the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus are on track, he warns that iPhone 8 and 8 Plus shipment momentum may not be stable and needs to be closely monitored as the launch of the iPhone X approaches.

Related Forum: iPhone

Popular Stories

iphone 16 pro ghost hand

5 Reasons to Skip This Year's iPhone 17 Pro

Thursday July 10, 2025 4:54 am PDT by
Apple will launch its new iPhone 17 series in two months, and the iPhone 17 Pro models are expected to get a new design for the rear casing and the camera area. But more significant changes to the lineup are not expected until next year, when the iPhone 18 models arrive. If you're thinking of trading in your iPhone for this year's latest, consider the following features rumored to be coming...
apple tv 4k new orange

New Apple TV Expected Later This Year With These New Features

Saturday July 12, 2025 3:09 pm PDT by
A new Apple TV is expected to be released later this year, and a handful of new features and changes have been rumored for the device. Below, we recap what to expect from the next Apple TV, according to rumors. Rumors Faster Wi-Fi Support The next Apple TV will be equipped with Apple's own combined Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chip, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. He said the chip supports ...
iPhone 17 Pro in Hand Feature Lowgo

iPhone 17 Pro Coming Soon With These 16 New Features

Friday July 11, 2025 12:40 pm PDT by
Apple's next-generation iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max are only two months away, and there are plenty of rumors about the devices. Below, we recap key changes rumored for the iPhone 17 Pro models. Latest Rumors These rumors surfaced in June and July:A redesigned Dynamic Island: It has been rumored that all iPhone 17 models will have a redesigned Dynamic Island interface — it might ...
macbook pro blue green

M5 MacBook Pro No Longer Coming in 2025

Thursday July 10, 2025 12:38 pm PDT by
Apple does not plan to refresh any Macs with updated M5 chips in 2025, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Updated MacBook Air and MacBook Pro models are now planned for the first half of 2026. Gurman previously said that Apple would debut the M5 MacBook Pro models in late 2025, but his newest report suggests that Apple is "considering" pushing them back to 2026. Apple is now said to be...
iphone 16 pro pro max

iPhone 17 Pro Models With BOE Displays Will Be Sold in China Only

Thursday July 10, 2025 11:59 pm PDT by
iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max models with displays made by BOE will be sold exclusively in China, according to a new report. Last week, it emerged that Chinese display manufacturer BOE was aggressively ramping up its OLED production capacity for future iPhone models as part of a plan to recapture a major role in Apple's supply chain. Now, tech news aggregator Jukan Choi reports...
Apple Watch Ultra 2 Complications

Apple Watch Ultra 3: What to Expect

Sunday July 13, 2025 10:30 am PDT by
The long wait for an Apple Watch Ultra 3 is nearly over, and a handful of new features and changes have been rumored for the device. Below, we recap what to expect from the Apple Watch Ultra 3:Satellite connectivity for sending and receiving text messages when Wi-Fi and cellular coverage is unavailable 5G support, up from LTE on the Apple Watch Ultra 2 Likely a wide-angle OLED display that ...
apple wallet drivers license feature iPhone 15 pro

Apple Says iPhone Driver's Licenses Will Expand to These 8 U.S. States

Tuesday July 8, 2025 11:26 am PDT by
In select U.S. states, residents can add their driver's license or state ID to the Wallet app on the iPhone and Apple Watch, providing a convenient and contactless way to display proof of identity or age at select airports and businesses, and in select apps. Unfortunately, this feature continues to roll out very slowly since it was announced in 2021, with only nine U.S. states, Puerto Rico,...
iPhone 17 Air Colors Thumb 2

iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Air Rumored to Come in These 9 Colors

Friday July 11, 2025 12:30 am PDT by
The iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Air will be available in a total of nine color options, according to new information coming out of Asia. The iPhone 17 Air's expected color options. According to the leaker going by the account name "yeux1122" on the Korean blog Naver, accessory manufacturers are now producing camera protector rings for the iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Air in colors to match their...

Top Rated Comments

nutriousmitten Avatar
102 months ago
Kuo's definitely been given his orders from Cupertino, making sure that the wording he uses, for the large platform of investors and general public who he serves, is carefully crafted and spun.

Bottom line, this had to be the worst first weekend of sales for an IPhone launch maybe ever, and while that doesn't mean it or the phone is a failure, that's just facts and no use in dancing around it, but that's what he is doing.

And it's not just the hard cores waiting for the X, it's for a lot of people who want the upgraded features of things like the camera and screen size of the + in the form factor size of the regular IPhone, as one very simple and basic example.
Score: 35 Votes (Like | Disagree)
unobtainium Avatar
102 months ago
Kuo's definitely been given his orders from Cupertino, making sure that the wording he uses, for the large platform of investors and general public who he serves, is carefully crafted and spun.

Bottom line, this had to be the worst first weekend of sales for an IPhone launch maybe ever, and while that doesn't mean it or the phone is a failure, that's just facts and no use in dancing around it, but that's what he is doing.

And it's not just the hard cores waiting for the X, it's for a lot of people who want the upgraded features of things like the camera and screen size of the + in the form factor size of the regular IPhone, as one very simple and basic example.
Sure, Kuo is on Apple's payroll...Just like you're on Samsung's, right?
Score: 35 Votes (Like | Disagree)
MacFather Avatar
102 months ago
Deleted.
Score: 29 Votes (Like | Disagree)
sundog925 Avatar
102 months ago
who really cares except shareholders?

buy the phone you like, when you like.

if we didn't have such over saturation of the phone market we wouldn't be 'woe-ing'.

i mean, god forbid we skip a year for an iphone smh...
Score: 14 Votes (Like | Disagree)
MagMan1979 Avatar
102 months ago
Apple must be extremely happy that they no longer report launch weekend sales numbers. They would be embarrassing for the iPhone 8.
Another hyperbolic, fact-less comment. Gotta love it!
Score: 13 Votes (Like | Disagree)
pat500000 Avatar
102 months ago
The title needs to edify in regards to "overdone" to "over-COOK-ed."

Message to Jeff WIlliams: Get your nike shoes and start running your factories right.
Score: 12 Votes (Like | Disagree)